by Logan Scisco

The following topic area analysis is for extempers who will be competing next week at the Texas Forensic Association State Tournament at Flower Mound High School.  Like our CFL and NFL topic area analysis in the past, this will attempt to provide some guidance for extempers as they prepare for the tournament.  This topic area analysis will provide a brief description of the round in question and list some major issues that extempers will have to talk about in that round.  For extempers who will not be competing at TFA and have their state tournaments later in the year, this topic area analysis can still help you since many states are using the same topic areas and categories that TFA is utilizing.  As with all topic area analysis, this merely represents the opinions of the writer and in no way reflects what will actually happen at TFA State.  Extemp Central is not affiliated with TFA and has not written the questions that extempers will compete with next week.

Topic Area #1:  Europe & the Americas

This is an interesting grouping since Europe and the Americas don’t share too many issues, but the Americas had to go somewhere and the question writers must’ve decided it made more sense to pair it with Europe than Asia.  Geographically speaking, extempers should recognize that the Americas does not merely indicate Latin America.  Canada is just as important and may have a question or two in this round.  Latin America has stayed out of the news lately, as tensions between Colombia and Venezuela have settled down and the region isn’t having a quick series of elections.  The death of Nestor Kirchner garnered headlines for a few days last semester, but hasn’t permanently shaken up the Argentinian economy.  If anything, the biggest two issues in the Americas right now are the Mexican drug war and the Haitian presidential election debacle.  For Europe, economic issues have been at the forefront with countries lining up behind the German public in voicing their opposition to further bailouts of euro zone members.  German voters fear that the EU is going to become a transfer union where their wealth is going to spread to poorer countries and less will be available for their use.  Additionally, the far right is gaining ground in Europe after a length absence as leaders have voiced opposition to multiculturalism and fears of Islamic terrorism are rising.  Also, Europeans worry about illegal immigration from North Africa, which has many of the same tones as the dispute happening in the Southwestern half of the United States.  For example, Italy wants tougher restrictions on migrant workers.  I predict that Russia will appear in this round as well, since there isn’t anywhere else for it to go in the other topic areas.  Putting it in Asia is a possibility, but with Russia’s close workings with Europe, I doubt that it’s going in Asia.  If there is cooperation between Europe and the Americas it is found on the trade front and officials on both sides are pushing for a free trade accord between the EU and Mercosur, a South American trade bloc that encompasses Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.  These negotiations began fifteen years ago, but have stalled since Latin America’s push to the left gained steam in 2004.  Europeans fear that their beef industry would take a hit if the deal was passed.

Issues you might confront in this topic area include:

  • Silvio Berlusconi’s problems in Italy.  Impact on Italian politics, his party, and whether he should step down prior to trial.  A more adventurous question writer might even ask you to assess the charges and evaluate whether he will be found guilty and how the trial will impact his legacy.
  • Angela Merkel’s government is reeling in Germany.  Is it on its way out?  Also, will statements by German politicians against Islam’s role in Germany hurt or strengthen the CDU coalition?
  • Are Europe’s fears of Islam and other cultural groups valid or overblown?  Is it in Europe’s best interest to allow more migration or should they shut their doors?  Better yet, how can they handle illegal immigration that is ongoing?
  • How will the recent Irish election impact the country’s ties to the EU and will it create problems with future bailouts?
  • How should European government proceed with spending cuts?  Greece is still rocked with protests as its government moves forward with austerity measures.
  • Will the trial of Jacques Chirac reflect negatively on Sarkozy’s re-election bid?
  • For British politics, are the Liberal Democrats being harmed by their decision to form a coalition with the Conservative Party?
  • Why are far right parties growing in Europe?  Can their growth last?
  • Who is Europe’s strongest country?  Who is the weak link?  Who’s the weak link in the EU?
  • Will rising right-wing sentiment across Europe weaken the EU?
  • Chilean President Sebastian Pinera is taking a beating on helping victims of the country’s earthquake last year.  Is he doing enough?
  • How strong is Hugo Chavez’s current political position and is he insulated from economic shocks that may come from high food prices and other commodities?
  • What should be done with Haiti in regards to its political structure and rebuilding process?
  • What impact is the Mexican drug war having on the Mexican political system and how will it reflect on PAN and Felipe Calderon?
  • Can Brazil ensure the safety of the Summer Olympics when it hosts them?  How is its fight against organized crime going?
  • Does Cuba need more free enterprise and how can it convince the U.S. to drop sanctions?
  • Will the Liberal Party’s focus on education help them win Canadian elections?  Better yet, when the elections are held will the Conservative Party win them and maintain power?
  • Will Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner win re-election this October in Argentina?

Topic Area #2:  The Middle East & Africa

Of all of the topic areas in the International Extemp portion of the tournament this one is the most volatile and extempers should be aware of changes in global events during the tournament, which could include the spread of protests to other Middle East countries like Saudi Arabia or the fall of Moammar Gaddafi in Libya.  The big question with all of the protests across the Middle East is what character new governments will take on in the region.  Will Egypt’s new government be controlled by radical forces or will it merely be a moderate government that will work with the United States and the West on a few issues and differ on others?  More importantly, will the new government shred itself of its responsibilities under the Camp David Accords with Israel or keep them?  As always, the Israeli-Palestinian peace process will be a big topic in this round since that process has stalled and the Palestinians appear to be searching for international recognition as an independent state.  Settlements remain a primary point of contention and with Israel’s neighbors turning against it, whether they be Egypt or Lebanon, it does not appear that the right wing in Israel is going to be amenable to a peace deal in the near future.  Africa has the usual issues that extempers are familiar with:  disputes over natural resources in Nigeria, old leaders who refuse to go away (as in Uganda and Zimbabwe), young leaders that are looking to clamp down on the opposition (see Joseph Kabila in the Democratic Republic of the Congo), disputes over new states (see Southern Sudan), and corruption and criminal activity that is fostered by perpetual instability (see Somalia).  The African Union has tried to take a lead on regional issues in regards to trade and politics, but it has thus far been ineffective in solving the political dispute in the Ivory Coast.  South Africa is trying to take leadership in the organization, but that leadership is tempered by an anti-Western attitude towards Western intervention in African affairs because of the colonial era.

Issues you might confront in this topic area include:

  • What will be the character of the new Egyptian government?  Will the Muslim Brotherhood rise to power?  Will the army let them?
  • Should Hosni Mubarak be prosecuted by Egypt?
  • What should be done with Gaddafi if he’s caught and his government falls in Libya?
  • Will the new Libyan government be more friendly to the West than the Gaddafi regime?
  • Can Saudi Arabia stave off protests and will its intervention in Bahrain make matters worse?
  • Have protests in the Middle East killed a possible Israeli-Palestinian peace deal?
  • Will Palestinian elections this year result in a stronger Palestinian Authority or will it usher in a government that is divided and that can’t work with Israel?
  • Is an invasion of Israel imminent and if so, could the Arabs win?
  • Is Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear weapon inevitable and how will it change dynamics in the Middle East? (this is a tired question by this point but it won’t go away)
  • Why is democracy failing in Africa and how can democratic governments be structured to allow for younger politicians to take over and end cronyism by older leaders
  • Can Southern Sudan survive as an independent state?  What does it need to do be to be successful?  How can it stave off hostilities with Sudan?
  • With Southern Sudan seceding, what should Sudan do about Darfur?
  • How can Somali piracy be brought under control and are pirates becoming more violent?  If so, why?  What should be done with pirates that are caught?
  • Will Robert Mugabe’s moves to crack down in Zimbabwe only alienate citizens and lead to his ouster?
  • Will there be other “people protests/revolts” in African countries after Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt and if so, who’s next?
  • How can Africa better manage its resources and bolster its human capital?
  • Where is the political situation in the Ivory Coast going?  Why are AU efforts faltering?  Is Western intervention needed?
  • Can stability be brought to the entire Democratic Republic of the Congo?  If so, how can it be brought?

Topic Area #3:  U.S. Foreign Policy

This topic area is shared with the United States Extemp portion, but when U.S. foreign policy is evaluated from an International Extemp viewpoint you get questions about how American foreign policy is interpreted by the world instead of how America should act with the world.  For example, on the START accord, a USX version of the question might be something like “Did the U.S. get outnegotiated on START?” whereas an IX version of the question would be something like “Is the START treaty beneficial for Russia?”  Similarly, a question about the Libyan protests could be “Should the U.S. impose a no fly zone over Libya?” whereas the IX’er would get a question about “What should Gaddafi do if the U.S. imposes a no fly zone over his country?”  As with all foreign policy rounds, this will be a hodgepodge of America’s international efforts.  Questions could center on the international response to America’s moves on defense, humanitarian aid, and even domestic politics shifts.  For example, Republicans are pushing to cut foreign aid, with some like Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky wanting to cut all of America’s foreign aid.  Extempers may be called upon to evaluate whether this will have a negative impact on the world’s perception of the United States or if it will make the world’s conflict zones more dangerous.  For sources, extempers should get away from the usual newspapers and magazines.  Instead they should look to sources like the Council on Foreign Relations, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Issues you might confront in this topic area include:

  • How has Obama’s handling of Egypt and Libya impacted attitudes towards in the United States in that area of the world?
  • How would the Libyan government react to a no fly zone?
  • Was Russia the winner of the START accord?
  • Are British attitudes towards the U.S. becoming more negative?
  • How would Europe react if America withdrew most of its military forces from the area?
  • Has American aid to Haiti been counterproductive?
  • Would a refusal to give North Korea food aid make the country more belligerent?
  • Is Iran outfoxing the United States in the Middle East?
  • Does China control U.S. economic policy?
  • How would a withdrawal of foreign aid be received by the international community?
  • Is Felipe Calderon’s claim that U.S. guns and demand for drugs is fueling drug violence in his country accurate?
  • Is a world without nuclear weapons desirable?
  • Why is President Obama so unpopular in Israel?
  • Have the Palestinians let the United States fight its negotiating battles for them?

Topic Area #4:  Asia

This is the first elimination round topic and it’s a good one that extempers should have a lot of files on.  China and India are the two dominant players in this topic area, as they are jockeying for positions of political and economic power in the region.  India is re-aligning its defense strategy to face off against Pakistan and China and Russia is also looking to turn its defense forces against China, a sign of Russian anxiety at China’s massive economic growth and potential instability in the future because of a demographic deficit between men and woman due to the one child policy.  Spurred on by protests in the Middle East, some democratic activists in China have attempted to stage their own, but the Chinese government has done an effective job in censoring the Internet and squashing the protests before they reach a fever pitch.  There is a significant dispute in the international community about whether China will ever embrace democracy or if instability is ever going to break out on a large scale in China.  The proponents of an instability theory point out that while China is growing economically, three quarters of the population don’t have the luxuries that one quarter of the population enjoys and that there is a large disparity in living conditions in China’s rural and urban areas.  Naysayers point out that wealth in China will continue to expand and that the undemocratic character of China’s government will allow it to squelch protests effectively.  However, even the naysayers point out that if China’s economy were to suddenly stall or if the government is unable to control inflation if the economy overheats that trouble could break out and put the communist government in peril.  Aside from the usual concerns about China, extempers should be aware of the continued developments on the Korean peninsula.  As the North Korean government threatens the West publicly, it is sending out calls for aid because of food shortages it is experiencing.  The right-wing government in South Korea cut off aid to the North after coming to power and it’s push to isolate the North was strengthened after North Korea’s belligerent actions this season.  Experts allege that as Kim Jong-Il tries to pass power to his son Kim Jong-Un that the situation might explode and North Korea may lash out against its neighbors and there is a real danger of overreach.  There have been whispers in South Korea that if North Korea takes any further military actions that result in the deaths of South Korean soldiers or civilians that it will retaliate with air strikes, which could turn the Korean War hot for the first time since 1953.  Remember, the Korean War never had a peace treaty and never ended.  The food situation in North Korea is dire because of flooding and a foot and mouth outbreak and although aid agencies call for sending in aid, the West and South Korea are unlikely to agree unless they get to monitor its distribution.  Furthermore, there are calls by some that although sending food may be the moral thing to do, the North Korean regime may implode if food is not sent.  It’s a tough call because innocent people will suffer if the world tries to starve North Korea out, but it may be the world’s best long-term interests, especially those of the United States who fears that North Korea may develop the technology to hit Alaska or Hawaii with a long range missile in the next couple of years.  If the question writers know their geography, this topic area will include Afghanistan and Pakistan, which have Islamic insurgency problems and Pakistan has a growing problem of moderate politicians being assassinated by extremists.  Also, Myanmar is still in the news after its transition to a new “democracy” that still includes military rule and there is a debate over whether international sanctions are even working.  Furthermore, Japan is locked in a political budget battle that is eerily similar to that of the United States and don’t forget about the border clashes between Cambodia and Thailand.  This provides a good opportunity for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and Indonesia in particular, to prove its mettle on a global stage.

Issues you might confront in this topic area include:

  • India’s relationship with Pakistan.  Is a peace deal coming over Kashmir or are both sides locked in their status quo relationship of staring at each other over the Line of Control?
  • Is Japan set to have another prime minister by the end of the summer?  Why is this “rotating door” policy of prime ministers happening in the first place?
  • Will ASEAN manage to solve the Cambodia-Thailand border dispute?
  • Is Indonesia winning or losing its battle against Islamic radicalism?
  • Is Pakistan doing enough to protect religious minorities?  Would the country benefit from the U.S. and NATO forces leaving Afghanistan?
  • Should the U.S. and NATO forces leave Afghanistan?
  • Would Afghanistan benefit if Hamid Karzai were not the president?
  • Should South Korea give North Korea food aid?
  • Is North Korea’s government on its last legs?
  • Can the Chinese government fend off protesters?  How stable is it?
  • Have international sanctions failed against Myanmar?  If so, why?
  • Should the Chinese government increase spending in its space program?
  • How should China respond to defensive shifts by India and Russia against it?
  • What does the Japanese government need to do to rescue Japan’s economy?
  • Should China push to have oil sold in yuan?
  • Will the establishment of a social safety net reduce political problems for the Thai government?
  • Should the world let Afghan farmers grow opium?
  • Have private military contractors significantly hampered Western efforts in Afghanistan?
  • Is North Korea’s nuclear program a global or regional threat?
  • What is the status of Taiwan-Chinese relations?  Are they growing closer or are Taiwanese citizens resisting further integration with the mainland?
  • Has China succeeded in its quest to get the world to reduce the position of the Dhali Llama and to accede to its claims of a “one China” policy in regards to Taiwan?
  • Will the Indian government’s quest to fight corruption succeed?
  • Does India need to impose a population control program?

Topic Area #5:  International Economics

This round can go one of two ways.  First, it could be a round where you are discussing how the global economy functions and how it is doing OR it could have questions about the economies of specific countries OR it could be a combination of the two.  It really depends on who the question writer is, but when I write questions under this topic area I usually favor writing questions about both.  However, since many of the problems in some of the previous topic areas, like Europe, are motivated to a large degree by economic concerns there might be overlap with this topic area.  This is the topic area for semi-finals, so it could derail several extempers who have dreams of a state championship.  As I recommend for CFL and NFL Nationals, if you don’t know a lot about economics, look into purchasing a cheap/used economics textbook or see if one of your teachers at school will let you borrow one.  Read chapters about taxation, monetary/fiscal policy, and any other economic concepts that you don’t know about and then put the book in your file box for reference at the tournament if that will help put your mind at ease.  In my eleven years in this event, I’ve seen three big problems that extempers make in economics rounds.  First, they make the delivery mistake of talking way too fast and the judge gets lost.  Second, they make the mistake of thinking that spewing out a large number economic terms, concepts, and statistics is the way to an easy victory or that doing that can mask their lack of understanding about the topic.  All this does is annoy the audience, though, and ruins the narrative the extemper is trying to craft.  Finally, extempers don’t try to talk judges through economic theory or complicated economic concepts.  They’ll spout off Keynesian economics or assert that a policy will raise GDP, but won’t explain why that will happen or why it’s relevant.  If you ever get me in the back of the room, I want you to teach me about a topic.  Even if I know facts, I try to judge with as much of a “blank slate” as possible and if you don’t teach me I’ll down you quick.  It’s a little different than some of the other judges on the circuit, but it’s not bad to want to be a teacher when you’re giving a speech.  The best extempers replicate this model and that’s why they tend to win national tournaments, where you have to navigate a large pool of parent judges and other judges that don’t read a lot of news.

Issues you might confront in this topic area include:

  • The future of the EU is big here.  Ireland’s new election has ushered in a government that wants to redefine the terms of its bailout.  German voters are getting angry @ having to bailout the EU project and it could bring down Merkel’s government.  Definitely worth considering down the line.
  • The UK economy is experiencing some stagflation and it’s wearing down the coalition government.  Spending cuts haven’t been popular there either.
  • The impact of the Middle East turmoil on the global economy will come to the forefront.  How can Europe insulate its oil supplies from these shocks?  Will the rise in oil prices plunge the global economy into another recession?  Will these shocks create economic problems for China?  Will the unrest in the Middle East weaken OPEC?
  • There might be a question about financial regulation on a global scale.  The French have pushed for some of the more aggressive measures before the G20, but the UK and the US are loathe to adopt them.
  • Global trade is still an issue that has been in the news.  Free trade deals have weathered the 2008 recession, but another lapse could cause countries to start erecting more barriers to trade.  America’s relationship with China is tense and could lead to tariffs vs. China for its currency practices down the line.  Also, there’s the possiblity for a question concerning what China’s money buys on a global scale.  America still has trade deals with Colombia and South Korea on the table as well, but chances of those being passed are slim.  Nevertheless, you could get a question of how it would impact both countries.
  • You could get a comparison economy question about developing countries.  For example, who is the economic leader of Latin America?  Is China or India bound to become the strongest global economy?  What impact would a Chinese economic superpower have on the world?
  • Africa is still in talks about a currency union.  Also, there are concerns that minerals and other resources in Africa are being used to fund undemocratic regimes or are coming from civil war zones.  Those are applicable here.
  • You could get region wide questions asking how South Asia can crack down on corruption, how African countries can best manage oil resources, and how Latin America can use populism to its economic advantage (or if such populism actually hurts their respective economies).

Topic Area #6:  International Relations

This round is kind of like the United States foreign policy round, except that it’s going to be international in focus.  This makes it harder because you are going to encounter questions about how China’s foreign policy should respond, how Germany’s foreign policy should respond, etc. to situations around the globe.  This is one of the things that can make International Extemper harder than United States Extemp if you were to compare the two categories.  This is the final round topic area so that the TFA state championship will be decided here.  If you are a good extemper you should love this topic area despite its difficulty.  If you know a lot about individual countries and their motivations (ex. why is North Korea so crazy, why is Iran so belligerent with the world, why does Hugo Chavez give oil to countries for their support, etc.) you can easily construct a narrative to answer questions pertaining to the issues you may receive in this round.  What is important about this round is that all of your questions will have either a bilateral or trilateral focus.  What this means is that your question could have two actors in it (ex. “How will the EU’s decision to sanction Belarus impact the Belarusian government?”) or it could have three (ex. “How will Russia’s dispute over islands in the Pacific with Japan impact Russia’s relations with China?”).  With bilateral, and especially trilateral questions, the challenge is to involve ALL of the actors in each point of your speech.  A problem extempers will make is that they will devote one of their three points to each of the three actors in a trilateral question or devote two of the three points in a three point speech to each of actor in a bilateral question.  The challenge is to use word economy and include all actors in a dynamic analysis that answers the question.  If you haven’t practiced these questions do so before the tournament because you don’t want to get blindsided in finals, mess up, and ruins your state title hopes.

Issues you might confront in this topic area include:

  • Germany’s relationship with the EU is critical based on what I said for the previous question.  If German voters reject more bailouts, it strains Germany’s ties to the organization.  Eurosceptics are on the rise throughout Europe and that could change continental perspectives about the EU.  Also, look at Germany’s recent spat w/Turkey over immigrants and how that could impact Turkey’s EU bid.
  • Russia’s relationship with Chechnya may constitute an international situation.  If not, Russia’s ties to the US from a Russian perspective when it comes to START are important.  Also, Russia is tussling with Japan over islands in the Pacific that have gas resources AND it is starting to shift its strategic forces against China.
  • India’s ties with Pakistan is always fertile ground for a question as well as the Indian government’s attitude towards China, who they have come to regard as more of a political and economic threat.  India’s strategic doctrine is shifting in regards to these two countries.
  • International pressure will come up in regards to Libya and the situation in Egypt.  Is pressure beneficial?  Should/can the world bring down Gaddafi?  How will the crisis in Libya impact refugee flows to Europe and other countries in the area and how will those governments respond?
  • Venezuela hasn’t done anything too crazy recently, as Latin America has fallen off the world’s radar screen.  Nevertheless, their work in the region with Iran does raise some US concerns.  It’s ties with Colombia are better now that Uribe is out, though.
  • Iran’s foreign relations with Israel and Israel’s relationships with all of its neighbors.  How will Middle East unrest impact Israeli foreign policy or Israel in general?  Will Egypt terminate its agreement with Israel and if so, what does that men for Israel’s foreign policy doctrine moving forward?  Is Israel headed for preemptive war soon with Lebanon because of Hezbollah taking over the government there?
  • AU’s handling of the Ivory Coast situation warrants attention.  The AU is telling the world that it can solve its own problems, but it is not doing a very good job.  The Ivory Coast is something the AU needs to succeed it at to prove its a viable and engaged international actor.  South Africa is leading the effort as well, demonstrating that they are a continental leader.
  • EU sanctions on Belarus could get some attention, although that has dropped off the global radar because of events in the Middle East.
  • North Korea is making threats, yet demanding food aid from the world.  Should the world grant it or refuse and hope North Korea implodes?

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