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Heading into Friday morning’s final rounds, three competitors remain alive in the 2014-2015 National Points Race competition: Justin Graham of Trinity Preparatory School (FL), Brian Anderson of LaRue County High School (KY), and Josh Wartel of Lake Braddock Secondary School (VA). Graham and Anderson will be competing in the International Extemp final, while Wartel will be competing in the United States Extemp final.
In this article, what I have attempted to do is to lay out how many points reach competitor could earn based on certain finishes at the tournament and then explain scenarios that would allow each competitor to win the National Points Race. For Wartel, he can only position himself to win the National Points Race by finishing first or second in U.S. Extemp so those are the only placings listed for him. By each placing, the number of total National Points Race points a competitor would have at the end of the tournament based on that placing is shown by the placing number. For example, if Justin Graham were to finish first in IX then he would have a cumulative season total of 762 points. Since the winner of the IX final round will receive fifty points and the final round winner of USX will receive forty points, the number in parenthesis by the number of total points a competitor might earn by placing at a certain position is how many points that person would earn if they also won the final round. So for example, if Josh Wartel finishes first in U.S. Extemp and wins the final round he would have 639 points for the entire season. Although calculations are included for final round victories if a competitor places fourth, fifth, or sixth, it is highly unlikely that with the NSDA’s current setup of the final round counting for 25% of a competitor’s elimination round score that someone would win the final round and place that low. Still, it is included just in case something unpredictable happens.
There is one scenario that could produce a mathematical tie between Graham and Anderson. In the National Points Race, ties are broken with the following criteria (in order of importance): number of wins, number of top three finishes at National Points Race competitions, and number of National Points Race final rounds. If all of this fails to break a tie, then co-champions are declared.
So here are the possible combinations of points that each of the three competitors could earn in their respective final rounds:
Justin Graham
Win-762 (812)
2nd-725 (775)
3rd-687 (737)
4th-637 (687)
5th-612 (662)
6th-595 (645)
Brian Anderson
Win-725 (775)
2nd-688 (738)
3rd-650 (700)
4th-600 (650)
5th-575 (625)
6th-558 (608)
Josh Wartel
Win-599 (639)
2nd-569 (609)
What this means with regards to scenarios is that….
Justin Graham Wins the National Points Race If…
*He finishes first in IX.
*He finishes second AND wins the final round of IX OR he finishes second AND Brian Anderson does not win IX.
*He finishes second AND Brian Anderson finishes first but does not win the final round. (In this scenario, Graham wins the second tiebreaker based on the number of top 3 finishes during the season at National Points Race events and would be declared the winner).
*He finishes third AND Brian Anderson finishes fourth or lower.
*He finishes at least one placing ahead of Brian Anderson if both place in the bottom three of IX so long as Josh Wartel does not win United States Extemp AND the final round title.
Brian Anderson Wins the National Points Race if…
*He finishes first in IX AND wins the final round OR he finishes first AND Justin Graham finishes in third place or lower while simultaneously failing to win the final round.
*He finishes second AND Justin Graham finishes third and does not win the final round.
*He finishes second AND Justin Graham finishes fourth or lower.
*He finishes third AND wins the final round AND Justin Graham finishes in fourth place or lower.
*He finishes third AND Justin Graham finishes in fourth place or lower as long as Graham does not win the final round.
*He finishes fourth AND Justin Graham finishes in sixth place AND Josh Wartel does not win U.S. Extemp AND the U.S. Extemp Final Round OR Josh Wartel does not finish second in U.S. Extemp AND win the final round.
Josh Wartel Wins the National Points Race if…
*He finishes first in USX AND wins the final round AND Justin Graham finishes fourth or lower in IX while failing to win the final round AND Brian Anderson finishes fourth or lower in IX while failing to win the final round.
*He finishes second in USX AND wins the final round AND Justin Graham finishes sixth in IX AND Brian Anderson finishes fourth or lower in IX AND Graham or Anderson do not win the IX final round.
*He finishes first in USX but does not win the USX final AND Justin Graham finishes sixth in IX AND Brian Anderson finishes fifth in IX.
So, in summation, Justin Graham controls his destiny the most as a win in IX guarantees him the National Points Race title. Brian Anderson still controls his destiny because a sweep of both IX national titles (overall and final round) gives him the National Points Race Crown. And Josh Wartel needs some help from the other four International Extemp competitors while also placing highly in USX to win the National Points Race.