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Off-year elections are an often neglected part of the American political discourse. These elections, which take place in odd numbered years, attract little attention due to the fact that they focus primarily on state and local issues with little national significance. Off-year elections do not involve elections to the House, Senate, or the White House and the states that hold these types of contests – Virginia, New Jersey, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Kentucky – tend to draw a small pool of registered voters. Nevertheless, off-year elections do matter for the voters of the states that hold them as new governors and state officials are elected and ballot measures are submitted for ratification. For example, in 2015 voters in Houston rejected an equal rights ordinance that would have covered homosexuals and transgender individuals, while Ohio voters rejected a proposal to legalize the recreational use of marijuana. Furthermore, the recent elections provide continued evidence that the Republican Party thrives in non-presidential contests as they retained control of Mississippi’s governor’s mansion, won the Kentucky gubernatorial election for the first time since 2007, and fought off a Democratic attempt to win the Virginia Senate. It is unclear whether these off-year elections can affect 2016, but politicians on both sides of the aisle would be wise to pick the data apart and see if there is something to be learned from the successes and failures of various campaigns in the recent election cycle.
This topic brief will depart from our usual format by only having two sections. The first section will summarize some of the major races that were contested in the 2015 elections, while the second will analyze what significance, if any, the 2015 election results have for next year’s national elections.
Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.
2015 Election Results
Arguably the most notable result of the 2015 elections was the Republican victory in the Kentucky gubernatorial election. Businessman Matt Bevin, a self-identified Christian conservative and Tea Party member, scored an upset over Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway to return a Republican to the state’s governor’s mansion for the first time since 2007. Bevin is only the third Republican to win a Kentucky gubernatorial election since the end of the Second World War, and to do so he had to overcome a barrage of attack ads by Conway that brought up some tax delinquencies and Bevin’s unwillingness to disclose his tax returns during the campaign. One of the major issues of the Kentucky election was the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Time explains on November 4 that Bevin promised to dismantle Kentucky’s state insurance exchange, called Kynect, via executive order. He also pledged to end the Medicaid expansion enacted by his predecessor, Democratic Governor Steve Beshear. Although Democrats tried to portray this move as heartless and Governor Beshear touted the success of his healthcare measures, voters went in the other direction. And it was not simply Bevin that prospered. U.S. News & World Report writes on November 4 that the Democrats lost some rising stars in their ranks, including State Auditor Adam Edelen. Edelen was pegged as a possible challenger for Senator Rand Paul in 2016, but his loss to unknown state representative Mike Harmon puts such a campaign in significant jeopardy. However, Democrats with some name recognition such as Secretary of State Allison Lundergan Grimes, who lost to Senator Mitch McConnell in a landslide in last year’s midterm elections, and Andy Beshear, Governor Beshear’s son who sought the state’s attorney general job, managed victories. Bevin’s victory may not surprise extempers that usually associate Kentucky as a state that votes solidly Republican in the last few presidential contests, but Kentucky’s Democrats have survived longer relative to their counterparts in other parts of the South. It was thought that they could beat Bevin, who lost badly in a primary against McConnell last year. Nevertheless, Bevin’s decision to run a campaign that was largely positive while allowing the Republican Governor’s Association (RGA) to run ads that tied Conway to President Barack Obama paid off, even though Bevin never really repaired ties with the state’s Republican Party that never wanted him to be the nominee. The Louisville Courier-Journal explains on November 4 that Bevin’s win shows that Kentucky will soon end up like Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia where Democrats become an endangered species in state office. Democrats currently control the state House, but Republicans will aim to take that body over in 2016 and place the entire state under their control.
Mississippi also held a gubernatorial election, but unlike Kentucky the result was never in doubt. Republican incumbent Phil Bryant cruised to an easy re-election victory over Democrat Robert Gray, a truck driver that U.S. News & World Report explains in a separate article on November 4 spent only $3,000 on his campaign. In fact, The Washington Post writes on November 3 that Gray’s own mother did not know he was seeking to run the state. Democrats have fared poorly in Mississippi since its traditional Democratic voters migrated to the Republican Party in the late twentieth century, but Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood did cruise to re-election for a fourth term. Roll Call explains on November 3 that this makes Hood the only Democrat in the Deep South to occupy a post as either governor, attorney general, or secretary of state.
While the gubernatorial election was not in doubt, a constitutional amendment that would have given Mississippi’s state courts the power to enforce education funding requirements was barely defeated. Roll Call writes that Initiative 42 was a hot topic because only twice since 1997 has Mississippi’s state legislature funded the state education system at legally required levels. U.S. News and World Report explains that Initiative 42 would have mandated “an adequate and efficient” public school system and would have enabled the state courts to oversee that the state legislature lived up to this task. Governor Bryant and other conservatives opposed the measure, alleging that it would empower the judiciary over the legislative branch in educational policymaking. In an interesting political trick, opponents of the measure submitted a counter-amendment to voters that was labeled as Initiative 42A, which would have prohibited state courts from being involved in education funding decisions. Advocates of Initiative 42 said that this caused voters significant confusion on Election Day and explains why their measure failed by a slim 52-48% margin. Roll Call notes that if you compare the amount of votes for each measure one finds that Initiative 42 beat Initiative 42A by a 59-41% margin, so this issue is likely to re-emerge in future Mississippi election campaigns.
State elections for the Virginia legislature ended the dreams of Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe to expand Medicaid and enact stricter gun control legislation. Democrats were attempting to flip the state Senate into their hands and outside groups spent more than $10 million on the race. One of these outside groups was former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s “Everytown for Gun Safety.” Democrats only had to capture one seat to take over the Senate, as Democratic Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam could break a tie, but Republicans held off the Democratic onslaught and maintained their slim 21-19 majority. Republicans also kept a two-to-one advantage in the state House as well, so that was always going to prevent McAuliffe from accomplishing his goals. Since McAuliffe is not allowed to run for re-election, his dreams of expanding Medicaid will not come to fruition, thereby pleasing the state’s conservatives that say that Virginia cannot afford to do so.
However, the night was not completely bad for Democrats. Democrats won all three open seats on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, a body that has been mired in scandal after several judges were forced to resign in the midst of corruption allegations. The Washington Post notes that this may help Democrats resist aggressive redistricting efforts by state Republicans and prevent voter identification measures from passing constitutional scrutiny over the next decade. The New York Times writes on November 4 that Democrats won mayoral races in Charlotte and Indianapolis and liberals defeated several conservative school board members in Colorado that had the backing of the Koch brothers. Democrats also retained the Philadelphia mayoral office and they are also in position to retake Louisiana’s governorship, although that election will not be held until the end of November (Democrat John Bel Edwards currently leads Republican candidate David Vitter in that race).
Although Ohio voters were not casting ballots for governor this year, they did weigh in on whether to become the first Midwestern state to legalize the recreation use of marijuana. According to Voice of America on November 4, the ballot measure, if passed, would have allowed Ohio residents to use marijuana for personal and medical use, but it also would have mandated that all marijuana in the state had to be grown on ten pre-determined farms. The Washington Post argues that this would have enriched investors such as pop star Nick Lachey, who campaigned vigorously for the measure, and as a result, some marijuana advocates blasted the vote, saying that it violated the libertarian ideas that marijuana legalization embodies. With a lack of backing from significant pro-marijuana organizations, and with some marijuana supporters deciding not to support the initiative due to its monopolistic language, the initiative failed 64-34%.
The other ballot initiative that received significant national attention was the Houston Equal Rights Ordinance (HERO). Houston is the fourth-largest city in the United States, typically votes Democratic, and The Washington Post explains that it is the only major city in America that does not have protections for homosexuals and transgender individuals. HERO would have barred discrimination against these groups and outgoing Mayor Annise Parker, who is a lesbian, thought the measure had a great chance of passing. Houston tried to enact the measure in May 2014, but conservatives challenged it in court and it went to a vote. During the campaign, conservative advocacy groups aired ads that tied the measure to allowing transgender women to use female restrooms. As a result, the ballot measure acquired the name of “the bathroom bill,” thereby showing the effectiveness of the opposition campaign. Despite its liberal tendencies, Houston voters decided overwhelmingly to reject HERO, with CNN reporting on November 4 that 60% of the city’s residents voted against it. This was a stunning loss for LGTBQ activists and shows the difficulties of advancing other transgender rights legislation throughout the rest of the country. It also shows that liberals are not as dominant in winning the culture wars as they previously assumed.
Other initiatives that attracted attention included San Francisco voters rejecting a proposal that would have limited the amount of time that owners of a house or apartment could rent it to out-of-town visitors, something that fair housing advocates said that was necessary to control soaring rents in the city. Ohio voters approved of a measure that would reduce gerrymandering by empowering a commission to oversee the redistricting process, while Maine and Seattle approved campaign finance measures to create a public funding system for elections. Voice of America writes that Washington voters voted to make it illegal to buy, sell, or trade parts of an animal such as an elephant, lion, cheetah, or shark that has been identified by international conservation groups as a threatened species. Colorado voters also chose to allow their state to channel $66 million in excess marijuana tax revenue to public school construction and drug education programs instead of reimbursing taxpayers. The reimbursement would have been minimal, with taxpayers collecting a measly $8 per person.
Lessons for the 2016 Elections
The first question that has to be asked is whether the 2015 elections have any significance for next year’s national elections, which not only include the presidential race, but a myriad of governor’s races, Senate contests, and House contests. Extempers should be cautious about extrapolating any of last Tuesday’s results to the nation as a whole, largely because off-year elections have low turnout. For example, less than 33% of voters cast ballots in Kentucky’s gubernatorial election. Republicans have traditionally fared well in off-year and even midterm elections when the coalition of young people, minorities, and unmarried women have not voted in large numbers. These voting trends, according to U.S. News & World Report on November 4, have led to the Democrats losing twelve governorships, 900 legislative seats, and thirty state legislatures since President Obama arrived in the White House since 2008. Nevertheless, there are some issues that extempers should keep following as they could foreshadow the 2016 campaign season.
One of the most glaring issues for Democrats is that they did not fare well in yet another non-presidential year. Democrats have won the popular vote in three of the last four presidential contests, but they have been unable to counter Republican strength in off-year and midterm elections. Since 2000, Democrats have had some triumphs in non-presidential balloting such as the 2006 midterm elections and a gubernatorial victory in Virginia last year, but they have suffered sizable setbacks during the Obama years. Candidates have done their best to drive minorities, young people, and women to the polls, but these individuals have been reluctant to turn out and vote for a candidate that is not President Obama. What has to worry Democrats is that if this trend continues, the party might face a leadership crisis within a decade as the governors and state officeholders who are supposed to one day lead the party lose races early in their political careers. One only has to look at this year’s Democratic field that features many older liberals such as Hillary Clinton to see that the party is lacking significant alternatives, whereas Republicans, despite the chaos of their race, have several choices among existing and former governors, as well as sitting senators. Also, losses at the state level can affect redistricting, which can influence how many Republicans or Democrats end up going to Washington. Hillary Clinton’s backers have to worry that they may not enjoy the sizable numbers that President Obama was able to drive to the polls in 2008 and 2012 and if this happens, the Republicans may return to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. The Democrats are hedging their bets on mirroring Obama’s vote totals, but they must find a way to do it in 2016 without him and they also have to find a way to get these voters to the polls in non-presidential years so they are not losing significant influence at the state level.
The BBC writes on November 4 that Kentucky’s gubernatorial race shows that the ACA is still a weight around the necks of Democratic candidates. Despite Kentucky’s uninsured rate dropping from 20% to 9% under the Beshear administration, voters chose a candidate that pledged to stop Medicaid expansion and dismantle the state health insurance exchange. The Business Insider explains on November 4 that what makes the result even more surprising is that 54% of Kentuckians told pollsters that they would like to see Medicaid expansion continue, while just 24% of the state’s residents favor ending it. The state’s Kynect exchange was also heralded as a national model, while other states such as Oregon struggled to get theirs in working order. What may have helped Bevin in his race was that insurance premiums in the state are rising, especially after the collapse of the Kentucky Health Cooperative, a nonprofit startup that captured 60% of the state’s Kynect customers. Also, Bevin found traction with an argument that the state would be hampered with a significant bill when Kentucky has to start paying 10% of Medicaid expansion costs by 2020, a cost that some estimates put as high as $300 million. Extempers should see if frustrations in Kentucky over either of these issues become significant topics in 2016. Healthcare premiums are rising in many markets and just this year more than one-third of the twenty-three healthcare cooperatives created under the ACA have collapsed. CNN notes on November 4 that Democrats are betting that if Bevin tries to follow through with dismantling Kynect, thereby tossing Kentucky customers onto the federal exchanges, and ending Medicaid expansion that it will give Republicans a poor image and possibly help their candidates next year. Still, a noted success of the ACA was not enough to keep Kentucky in the Democratic column and that has to worry party leaders.
On the marijuana issue, Democrats may have received a blessing in disguise after the Ohio legalization measure failed. Ohio is a traditional tossup state in recent presidential elections and no Republican has ever captured the White House without winning the state. Ohio Governor John Kasich is seeking the presidency, but is failing to gain significant traction in national polls despite his impressive resume. Keep in mind that the Ohio measure did not pass partly due to complaints that it established a monopoly on pot production and the National Cannabis Industry Association said that the proposal was a “deeply flawed, monopolistic approach to marijuana reform.” Advocates of legalization may try a more universal approach in 2016 and this may help drive the sort of liberal, younger crowd that a Democratic presidential candidate needs to win the state and secure the White House. Therefore, defeating the marijuana measure this year may help Democrats bolster turnout next year. In addition, if marijuana legalization is proposed for a second time in 2016 it will cause presidential candidates that visit the state to weigh in on the issue, thereby making it a potential wedge issue for the presidential contest.
Nevertheless, extempers would be wise to note, as Fortune does on November 4, that the 2013 elections did not foreshadow significant gains for Democrats in 2014. Remember that in that year progressive Bill de Blasio became mayor of New York City and Democrats captured Virginia’s governorship from the Republicans. Optimists thought at the time that the Democrats could use this as a way to keep the Senate, while also making a push to win the House, but instead the Republicans launched a stinging counter-attack, retained their House majority, and captured nine Senate seats. In addition, vulnerable Republican gubernatorial incumbents such as Sam Brownback in Kansas and Rick Scott in Florida won their campaigns. Therefore, impressive Republicans wins, especially since these triumphs happened in states that President Obama failed to carry in 2016, in the recent elections do not mean that Democrats should panic about their presidential or congressional chances. After all, their Senate candidate recruitment has been excellent, some of the Senate map favors them (Russ Feingold is currently a favorite to retake the Senate seat he lost in 2010), and they enjoy an Electoral College advantage over Republicans.
In the end, the 2015 election results cannot be completely ignored. The loss of Kentucky, combined with the defeat of HERO and marijuana legalization are painful losses for the Democratic establishment and progressive forces, but a larger prize awaits next year. It would be wise for both parties, as well as extempers, to remember that.