by Logan Scisco
A question that those doing United States Extemp or extemp in states that have mixed extemp have likely encountered this season and will continue to encounter until early November is:
“Who will win the 2014 midterm elections?”
This may seem like a very straightforward question and one that requires little thought. After all, you just pick the political party that is going to ‘win’ the midterms and you’re fine, right? Wrong. The generic “who will win the midterm elections” question has several caveats that other domestic politics questions do not have. Answering these questions is not as easy as getting a “Who will win the 2016 presidential election” topic for a variety of reasons.
In this short piece, I will discuss some strategies for dealing with this generalized midterm election question and what you should be aware of as you craft your answer in prep.
Defining a “Win”
Unlike other domestic politics questions, which might center on who will win a particular election contest, the midterm elections are different. Instead of having to evaluate candidates you are forced to evaluate the Democratic and Republican parties. Furthermore, the question is complicated by the fact that instead of talking about one election you have to summarize hundreds of elections. At the midterms everyone isn’t going to the local polling station, pressing a button for the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, and pulling the lever. Instead, voters are voting for different candidates across all fifty states, which have different ideologies within the same party. Everything that I have said so far is obvious to most of you reading, but you would be amazed at how many times I have seen extempers take midterm election questions and make it seem like we live in a European parliamentary system where people vote for parties, not candidates.
Now that we have that cleared up, the biggest issue with the generic “Who will win the 2014 midterm elections” question is that you need to define what constitutes a win. Remember, the midterm elections will see elections for the House and the Senate and control of both chambers is a possibility for the Republican Party. A typical mistake extempers make with a midterm question like this is that they say that the Republicans or Democrats will win the midterms, but they never discuss why they will win.
Consider how you could feasibly define a “win” for either party in the midterms:
*Do the Republicans win if they win control of both houses of Congress?
*Do the Republicans win if they keep control of the House, but fail to win the Senate?
*Do the Republicans win if their candidates get more votes collectively than the Democrats?
*Do the Republicans win if they merely gain seats? If so, do they have to gain seats in both houses of Congress or just one?
*Do the Democrats win if they preserve their Senate majority, since they are defending more seats than Republicans?
*Do the Democrats win if they keep control of the Senate and win control of the House?
As you can see, there are at least six different possibilities for what could constitute a “win” for either the Republicans or Democrats in the midterm elections. If you merely say “the Republicans” as your answer to the generic midterm elections question without saying WHY they will win you don’t set up a standard for your speech. Usually speeches without a standard/thesis tend to be aimless. I think it is easier to follow a speech that tells me “the Republicans will win the midterm because they will gain seats in both houses of Congress” than a speech that just says “the Republicans.” The first answer gives me a clear road map for where the speech is going and also allows the extemper to give a more definitive answer whereas the second answer leaves me asking “why?” You never want your judge to say “why?” in their head while they are watching your speech because sometimes judges will drift into a weird mental world where they will ponder what you are not saying rather than listening to what you are saying.
So make sure that your answers to midterm election questions have a thesis that explains why that party will win. It’ll save you ranks, make your coaches happy, and make your speeches stronger.
General Strategies for Midterm & Political Races Questions
There are several steps you can take to enhance your midterm election speeches. Following these steps will help you stand out in close rounds and sharpen your ability to predict election results.
Learn About Key Races
You cannot give a great midterm election speech if you don’t know about the dynamics of some crucial House or Senate races. Senate races are easier to follow and talk about because they get more news coverage, which helps with sources, and tend to involve more nationally known political figures. Senate races are also much more competitive because they are statewide races as opposed to House districts that are gerrymandered beyond recognition. The races that you should pay attention to are those that are deemed as “tossups” by the Cook Political Report or RealClearPolitics. These races usually determine who will win control of the House or Senate so they are vital to your answer on a generic midterm question. You may also run into other extemp questions prior to November about these races, since they attract more attention, so learning about them helps. You want to know who the candidates are (judges love names), background about the candidates, the ideology of the candidates (are they moderate, a partisan extremist, etc.), and what the major issues of the race are. Getting polling data about these races also helps because you will want to know who is ahead and why. RealClearPolitics tracks the polling data for races and averages it out, which is a political junkie’s dream.
Learn About Issues Voters Care About
The Pew Research Center, Gallup, and Rasmussen Reports have great websites devoted to how the American public feels about domestic political, social, economic, and foreign policy issues. Usually, these websites will have polling data about how voters feel about the direction of the country, how likely they are to support incumbent politicians, which political party they trust more on issues of national importance, and what they consider to be the most important issues facing the country. Personally, I always look at two major items here: how voters feel about the country’s direction and what they consider to be the most important issues. If voters are unhappy about the direction of the country they tend to punish the party in power. Currently, Americans are very unhappy about how things are going in Washington, which spells trouble for both parties this November since Republicans control the House and Democrats control the Senate. Of course, this can become more nuanced because the midterm elections could become a referendum on whether voters see President Obama or Republicans as the biggest problem in getting things done on Capitol Hill. Furthermore, when you look at the issues that the country finds most important you can measure those issues against the performance of the party in power on those issues. When looking at major issues, it is also a good indicator for seeing where the political mood of the country is. Republicans tend to outperform Democrats on national security issues whereas Democrats tend to outperform Republicans on social issues (healthcare, education, environmental protection…basically all the topics extempers hate to speak on). However, if polls show, that Republicans are trusted more on health care, education, and other leading categories, that’s bad news for Democrats. The problems with the rollout of the Affordable Care Act last year have helped Republicans increase their poll numbers regarding healthcare policy. Similarly, prior to the 2006 midterms, the trust of the Republican Party on Iraq plummeted as the Iraq war worsened so Democrats took the lead on that issue and subsequently took over control of Congress.
It’s All About the Money
Let’s face it, money talks in politics. Without it, candidates can’t send mailers out to voters advertising themselves and can’t air radio and television spots that promote themselves and/or attack their opponent. Although it is ridiculous that candidates spend millions of dollars to win control of a seat that will pay them less than $200,000 a year, that is the way things are done in American politics. Incumbent candidates tend to have the advantage against newcomers because they already have connections and are seen as a better bet by interest groups. However, some challengers for Senate seats in the past such as former World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) CEO Linda McMahon and former Hewlett-Packard Carly Fiorina have spent millions of their own money. Money does not always guarantee a victory in a political campaign, but it does make the lives of candidates a lot easier. Fundraising numbers by the Democratic and Republican Congressional Campaign and Senatorial Campaign Committee are also important for extempers because a party that is strapped for cash will not be able to contribute as much money and to as many candidates during an election cycle.
Pay Attention to the Primaries!
Extempers are familiar with the Tea Party Movement by now and that knowledge will play a role in handling midterm election questions this early in the election cycle. Many states will not hold party primaries until May and the Tea Party is already challenging some existing Republican Senators like Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell, who is the Senate Minority Leader, and Thad Cochran of Mississippi. The Tea Party has a very mixed record of success when it successfully wins primary elections. For example, in 2010 it endorsed Rand Paul in Kentucky, who won a landslide victory over Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway, but it also backed Christine O’Donnell in Delaware, who defeated moderate Mike Castle in the primary, but lost the general election to Democrat Chris Coons. Similarly, in 2012 the Tea Party ousted long-time Indiana Senator Richard Lugar in the primaries, but Richard Mourdock lost the general election after controversial comments about rape to Democrat Joe Donnelly. In each case, the Tea Party caused the Republican Party to lose a guaranteed Senate seat, as Lugar was a lock to return to the Senate and Castle would have won a general election. Democrats have done a better job keeping highly partisan and divisive candidates from winning their party’s primary elections in crucial states and if the Tea Party ousts McConnell in his primary, it is highly likely that Democrats may gain Kentucky’s Senate seat, which would doom Republican chances of taking the Senate. Therefore, extempers should monitor those Republican senators that are facing primary challenges and how they could impact the Republican Party’s chances of retaking the Senate, where they need to gain six seats to control the chamber.
All of the above factors will help you predict political races with greater accuracy and will greatly enhance your speeches about the midterm elections.