Credit: Brooklyn Paper
Since today is the first Tuesday in November, it’s election day for 2009. Voters cast ballots today in governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey, the New York City mayoral race, and the special election in the 23rd House district in New York.
Elliot Mamet of East High School commented on our facebook page that he anticipates Jon Corzine, the Democratic incumbent in the New Jersey race, to pull out a victory over Republican challenger Chris Christie thanks to independent candidate Chris Daggett peeling away some of Christie’s votes.
Does the political insider of Extemp Central agree or disagree? Read more to find out his predictions for today’s elections!
New Jersey Governor’s Race
Analysis: In a heavily Democratic state where Democrats outnumber Republicans in registered voters, this race should not be close. However, the sagging economy and missteps by the Corzine administration in fixing those economic problems that New Jersey has faced have made it close. President Obama has put a lot of his political prestige on the line to campaign for Corzine in an attempt to get registered Democrats who turned out en masse in the 2008 elections to back Corzine. Christie’s campaign has taken a massive hit from the spending Corzine has been able to put into the race and has lost support in the polls since Daggett entered the race several months ago. Recent polls show Daggett’s support falling from a high of 20% and his only appropriate role in the race now is to play spoiler. This race will be close, but with Corzine barely polling above 43% and since incumbents rarely exceed their numbers, expect to see the undecided voters break at the last moment for Christie and some of Daggett’s supporters abandon ship so Corzine can’t raise their taxes again, which he has admitted he will look into if he wins. However, don’t discount the possibility of a race that is so close to call we have to endure recounts upon recounts and if that happens Christie will lose because he does not control the state machinery to stop that process.
Expected Result: Chris Christie (R) 47%, Corzine 45%, Daggett 8%
Virginia Governor’s Race
This race is an open seat because Virginia governor’s are not allowed to run for re-election. Republican candidate and former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell looks set to crush Democratic candidate and State Senator Creigh Deeds which will be the first time a Republican candidate has won a Virginia governor’s election since Jim Gilmore did it in 1998. Pollsters are blaming Deeds terrible performance on the fact that nearly two-thirds of voters believe he has run a negative campaign versus less than two-fifths for McDonnell. Deeds strategy of attacking McDonnell over a master’s thesis only sank his poll numbers instead of eliciting a strong negative response that would have cast McDonnell as a conservative extremist. Interestingly enough, Deeds poll numbers are at least eight points behind what Barack Obama was polling in rural areas of the state in the 2008 presidential election…consider that for a moment. The Obama administration wrote off Deeds long ago in this race and today Virginia voters are not going to change their minds.
Expected Result: McDonnell (R) 58%, Deeds 41%
New York City Mayoral Race
Using tactics out of a Latin American dictator’s playbook, two-time New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) persuaded the New York City Council to allow a mayor to serve three consecutive terms in October 2008 and the legislation survived a constitutional challenge. Bloomberg justified the decision due to the economic crisis, arguing that his business experience will allow him to steer the city through tough economic times. Although the Republicans do not have a candidate in this race, they have thrown their support behind Bloomberg. Bloomberg’s challenger is Bill Thompson, the City Comptroller (chief fiscal official), who is a Democrat. Thompson is also endorsed by the Working Families Party. Obama has not campaigned for Thompson because Thompson has never had a real chance in this race due to Bloomberg’s name recognition and spending advantage. Obama’s aides argued that he would only intervene if Thompson was able to close the polling gap to eight points, which he was unable to do. There are many independent candidates in this race that will skew percentages, but the eventual ending is not in doubt.
Eventual Result: Bloomberg (I) 55%, Thompson 43%
NY-23 Special Election
Although House races are typically decided together, this is a special election in New York’s 23rd congressional district to fill the seat vacated when Republican John M. McHugh became Secretary of the Army in September 2009. The Democratic candidate is Bill Owens, a state businessman and attorney, and the Republican candidate was Dierdre Scozzafava, a New York state assembly member who had a liberal track record. For example, Scozzafava supports gay marriage and “card check” for union membership. Although Scozzafava got the endorsement of Newt Gingrich and the National Rifle Association, conservatives did not like what they saw and began throwing support behind Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, a businessman and accountant who does not live in the 23rd district. Hoffman has been endorsed by former Alaska Governor and vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin and former Senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee. What makes this race interesting is that Scozzafava dropped out three days ago after trailing Hoffman and Owens in a three-way poll and endorsed Owens. Polls show the race close, but considering that this is a Republican district, most of Scozzafava’s support should gravitate to Hoffman when the votes are counted, sending shockwaves through the Republican establishment.
Expected Result: Hoffman (C) 52%, Owens (D) 45%, Scozzafava (R) 3%