The National Forensic League national tournament next week in Kansas City, Missouri will decide this year’s Extemp Central National Points Race and National Team Points Race.  NFL Nationals is the only first tier tournament in the National Points Race and unlike last year, the title is not clinched prior to the tournament.  The fourteen extempers who make the semi-final round will be battling for the 200 points that will go to the tournament champion.  Extempers will then earn points on a graduate scale from 200 to 25 based on their finish from first through fourteenth place.  To see how points are awarded in the National Points Race, check out the Wake Forest edition of the Ex Files for this season by clicking on the Ex Files tab at the top of the page.

Based on the fact that extempers can only earn a maximum of 225 points at NFL Nationals, all extempers who have less than 125 points in the National Points Race are mathematically eliminated from winning the championship.  The following extempers have a mathematical chance of winning the title:

*Dillon Huff (Southlake Carroll High School, Texas)
*Nabeel Zewail (San Marino High School, California)
*Aaron Lutkowitz (Montgomery Bell Academy, Tennessee)
*Jamie Mohan (Danville High School, Kentucky)
*Michael Barton (Regis High School, New York)
*Jacob Baker (Bellarmine College Prep, California)
*Mirza Germovic (Des Moines Roosevelt High School, Iowa)
*Dylan Slinger (Lakeville South High School, Minnesota)
*Oscar Wang (San Marino High School, California)
*Jane Kessner (Walt Whitman High School, Maryland)

With these ten extempers vying for the title, creating scenarios can be difficult.  However, there are several things to consider.  First, many of the ten extempers who have a mathematical shot of winning the title are in International extemp.  And second, Dillon Huff is the only extemper in the National Points Race to have multiple national circuit victories this season.  This has given him a ninety point lead over Zewail heading into NFL and gives him possession of the first tiebreaker, which is the number of victories.  Therefore, Huff has to beaten cleanly because he will win a tiebreak.  Keeping these two factors in mind, here are a few of the scenarios to watch next week:

Scenario #1:  Dillon Huff will win the National Points Race as long as he places third or higher in International extemp or he finishes fourth and wins the final round of International extemp.  By finaling, Huff destroys the hopes of Germovic, Slinger, Wang, and Kessner to walk away with the title.

Scenario #2:  If Huff finishes fourth or below, and does not win the final round of International extemp, it opens the door for other competitors.  If he finishes fourth, Nabeel Zewail can win if he wins International extemp and the final round.  Similarly, Aaron Lutkowitz can win if he does the same.  If he finishes fifth, James Mohan can win if he wins International extemp and the final round.  If he finishes sixth, Michael Barton can win if he wins International extemp and the final round.  Jacob Baker and Mirza Germovic need more help to win the title.

Scenario #3:  For Oscar Wang and Dylan Slinger, who are both in United States extemp, they face an uphill battle to win the National Points Race.  First, it is a necessity that they have win the final round and United States extemp if they want to win.  Second, they need Huff to place thirteenth or below in International Extemp to have an opportunity to win the championship.

Scenario #4:  Jane Kessner can only win the National Points Race by winning NFL Nationals and having Dillon Huff drop before semi-finals.

The National Team Points Race is not as easy to determine based on the difficulty of assessing how many competitors each team is bringing.  San Marino High School will be in a strong position to finish on top because of Zewail and Wang’s abilities.  Also, Bellarmine College Prep is sending another large contingent and if they place like they did last year they could quickly snatch the title away from their California counterparts.  Lakeville North could also create some magic of their own since they have Steven Elliott, who was this year’s Glenbrooks winner, and Karen Zhou in the National Points Race.

As a sidenote, Extemp Central is looking at getting trophies for the top three finishers in the National Points Race this season so even if extempers are eliminated from winning first place, placing high enough might earn you some hardware like the trophies seen on the National Points Race page.