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Last weekend fighting resumed between Armenian separatists and Azerbaijan-backed forces in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The remote territory, located within Azerbaijan territory, is largely Armenian in ethnic composition and since 1994 it has been controlled by rebels that wish to detach it from Azerbaijan and make it an independent entity. Azerbaijan has long wished to regain it, but anxiety about how a takeover would be perceived by Armenians in the area, as well as the strong defensive position of separatist forces has prevented it from taking action up to now. Why the current fighting began is still a mystery as both sides accuse the other of taking offensive action first. While it would be easy to dismiss the conflict as a local affair, Turkey and Russia, both of whom are still smarting over a confrontation in Syria last fall, back opposite sides in the conflict, with Turkey casting its lot behind Muslim Azerbaijan and Russia having a defense treaty with Christian Armenia. Although the conflict appeared to be winding down as of the time of this brief, it could flare up again in the near future and create much more instability in Europe’s borderlands.
This topic brief will highlight some of the important vocabulary that extempers need to possess to give a speech on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, explain the history of the region, and analyze the geopolitical implications of the conflict.
Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.
Important Vocabulary
Ilham Aliyev: The current president of Azerbaijan. Aliyev was first elected to the post in October 2003 and he has been re-elected twice since then, with his last election victory taking place in October 2013. The West has been critical of his regime, noting that he pushed for a referendum in 2009 that abolished presidential term limits and restricted press freedoms. He has staved off opposition protests that call for a more open democracy and the United States and Amnesty International criticized his re-election in 2013, saying that there were significant “irregularities” in the voting. Prior to becoming president, Aliyev served as prime minister, a post that he held from August-November 2003. He has made inflammatory statements about Nagorno-Karabakh, saying that all Armenians are a threat to Azerbaijan. He has also stated his desire to keep Nagorno-Karabakh from becoming an independent state. International watchdogs deem him as one of the most corrupt rulers in the world and the recent Panama Papers have disclosed his interests in offshore companies that play a role in the Azeri economy. Nevertheless, high oil prices have helped him maintain power, although a drastic reduction in global oil prices could threaten his regime. This might be why some of the violence is taking place so as to distract Azeris from some of the ongoing economic misery that they are facing.
The Caucuses: An area that is a borderland between Europe and Asia. The region is named due to the Caucasus Mountains. The area is a mix of several countries such as Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and several states that are controlled or are affiliated with Russia. This part of the world has been a hotbed of instability since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, with ethnic and separatist conflicts creating headaches for major regional actors. For example, Chechnya and Dagestan are located in this area of the world. Turkey and Iran border this region as well and historically, Russia has competed with Turkey for influence in the region, as well as tried to control parts of Iran in the early twentieth century to acquire a greater foothold here as well.
The “Contact Line”: The name given for a heavily-mined no man’s land that separatists the military positions of Armenian-backed separatists in the foothills of the Karabakh mountains and Azeri troops that are dug into defensive positions on the plains below. It can be likened to the Line of Control that separatists Indian and Pakistani forces in Kashmir or the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that separates North and South Korean forces at the 38th parallel. Some of the recent fighting occurred near this area, with the Azeri government claiming that its forces had seized some of the heights that Armenian troops possessed at the conclusion of the Nagorno-Karabakh War of 1988-1994.
The Minsk Group: Formed by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe after the 1988-1994 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is chaired by ambassadors from Russia, France, and the United States, all of whom are tasked with the goal of creating a lasting peace that can be agreed to by all sides. The European Union (EU) does not have a role in this group, so that limits their influence in settling the conflict. The Group has been criticized by both sides in the dispute, with each claiming that the Minsk Group’s influence has eroded over time and that it has failed to create the conditions necessary for a long-term solution.
Nagorno-Karabakh: The international community deems this region part of Azerbaijan. It is located in the Caucuses area of Europe, but has been controlled by Armenian separatists since the end of a six year war between 1988-1994. A recent census in 2005 suggested that fewer than 400 of the area’s 138,000 residents were non-Armenian, making it an area that does not fit into Azerbaijan, which is a majority Azeri, Muslim nation. “Nagorno” translated from Russian means “mountain” and “Karabakh” translated from Azeri means “black garden.” The area does have a separatist government and a president, David K. Babayan, but no country currently recognizes its independence.
The Nagorno-Karabakh War: Conflict that took place from 1988-1994 between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and their local allies over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The Soviet Union was involved on the Azeri side from 1988-1991 in an attempt to restore some order to the region, but political and economic difficulties, combined with the disastrous Afghan campaign, made it difficult for the Soviets to effectively support the Azeris. Armenia was largely deemed as the winner of the war as it separatist forces aligned with it took control of Nagorno-Karabakh, taking up strategic positions on the heights found in the area (separatists still control many of these positions today). Also, Armenian forces captured seven surrounding districts to reinforce the security of separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan says that a lasting solution would see all of these territories returned to it and Armenia’s actions since the end of the war have been denounced by the Council of Europe, the Organization of the Islamic Conference, and United Nations General Assembly. The recent hostilities between both sides have been considered the most provocative actions in the area since the 1994 war ended.
Serzi Sakisian: The current president of Armenia. He has been in office since April 2008, having won his first term in February 2008 and he was re-elected in February 2013. He is a veteran of the Soviet Army and speaks Russian, something that helps him maintain a friendly relationship with Russia. He is also a former Defense Minister, having served in that post from 2000-2007. Liberals have praised his willingness to provide more free speech rights to the country and greater Internet access, but his administration has had to weather the economic downturn of the Great Recession that tanked much of the global economy in 2008. He has blamed Azerbaijan for continuing to increase its military spending and making threatening moves near Nagorno-Karabakh, of which he said he prefers a lasting solution that is brokered through the Minsk Group. However, he has also made statements that some infer as a willingness to increase security guarantees for separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh, which greatly antagonize the Azeri government.
Historical Tensions in the Region
It is a Religiously-Driven Conflict: It would be easy to view this conflict as one between two state actors vying for influence, but there is also a religious dimension not unlike that which also affects the Balkans. Armenia is a Christian nation, with more than 90% of the population following a form of Orthodox Christianity. In contrast, Azerbaijan is a Muslim nation, with 95% of the population adhering to the Islamic faith (recent estimates suggest that 85% of these Muslims are Shia). The Ottoman Empire papered over some of these divisions during its rule of the area, but the First World War created significant problems, especially when the Turks accused Armenians of aiding Russia during the war and rounded up millions of people, forcibly deporting them to more remote parts of the empire. Atrocities ensued and the term “genocide” and “mass killings” have been used to describe the event, which took place in 1915. The Turkish government argues that the action was not a genocide and the issue remains very controversial in foreign policy circles to this day, continuing to strain relations between Turkey and Armenia. The 1988-19914 conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh was triggered by Christian Armenians blaming Muslim Azeris for causing problems and they demanded to become part of Armenia (which at the time was a Soviet satellite state). When Azerbaijan refused, fearing the erosion of its territorial integrity, war broke out.
Russia Deems the Caucuses to be its Main Area of Influence: Although the United States and France are part of the Minsk Group, Russia has largely deemed itself as the major power broker in the region. Russia has relationships with Armenia and Azerbaijan, supplying weapons to both sides. Russia has wished to maintain influence in the Caucuses out of fear of Turkish expansion and even the growth of radical Islamic ideology, which it fears could penetrate Chechnya and other parts of its borderlands and produce significant security problems for it later. Furthermore, Russia views the area as a check on the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), of which Turkey is a member. Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded an immediate end to the recent fighting, mirroring the demands of other Western leaders in calling for an immediate ceasefire. Many international experts believe that the only way a lasting peace will be reached is with Russian influence since it has closer relations with both sides than any other member of the Minsk Group.
The Conflict Goes Back to the Fall of the Russian Empire: Extempers should be aware that the ongoing fight over Nagorno-Karabakh mirrors a wider struggle for influence in the area between Armenians and Azeris since the Russian Empire collapsed during the First World War. Both countries declared independence in 1917 and fought each other the following year over various territories. This war ended in 1920 and when communists won the Russian Civil War they moved to overtake and incorporate both territories into the Soviet Union, which was done in 1922. This largely suppressed conflict over areas such as Nagorno-Karabakh, which was called the “Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast” during this period (an oblast is an administrative term that can be interpreted in English to be a state or province). However, the fall of the Soviet Union put such an arrangement in jeopardy, which is why the Nagorno-Karabakh War broke out in 1988 as Soviet influence in the region eroded.
Geopolitical Implications of the Fighting
It is One of Five “Frozen Conflicts” in Former Soviet Lands: With the fall of the Soviet Union, areas such as the Caucuses became more unstable without an outside actor to police them. Ethnic minorities that believed they were oppressed revolted against newly independent states and several of these conflicts have yet to be resolved. International experts refer to these disputes as “frozen” because they have ended in ceasefires. These include Transniestria’s ongoing dispute with Moldova, Abkhazia and South Ossetia’s desire to break away from Georgia, and the ongoing struggle in Ukraine has acquired this “frozen” label as well. The one “frozen” conflict that is outside of the Soviet orbit is Cyprus, where Greek and Turkish interests continue to collide and are impeding Turkey’s ability to one day became a member of the EU. Settling these conflicts would go a long way to proving all of these areas with significant stability, which could bring political and economic benefits, but this is unlikely in the short-term due to Russia trying to push separatist agendas in three of these places to weaken existing governments, keep them out of NATO, or accomplish other significant objectives (those nations being Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine).
Oil Resources are at Stake: The Caucuses is home to a lot of oil resources. Azerbaijan has capitalized on this for the better part of the last decade to increase its state budget (and it has channeled a lot of that money toward defense). European countries are hoping to use the area to transmit Caspian oil and natural gas to markets in Europe to get around Russia pipelines. This would diversify European energy sources and make them less dependent on Russia. In the past, Russian disputes with Ukraine and other Eastern European countries over energy has affected energy supplies in Italy and elsewhere. Renewed fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh, especially if it became a prolonged, wider conflict, could threaten this oil supply and make Europe more dependent on Russia, thereby limiting some of their foreign policy actions.
Russia and Turkey Are on Opposite Sides of the Conflict: Although Russia supplies weapons to both sides, it has a closer defense relationship with Armenia. This is probably grounded in religious ties as both share allegiance to the Orthodox faith and Putin has made that a key part of his nationalistic domestic and foreign policy. The International Crisis Group suggests that Russia might even be selling the Azeris weapons at a higher cost so that it can sell those same weapons to the Armenians for a lesser value and still make up the difference. Currently, Russia has 5,000 troops in Armenia and it has a military base in Gyumri. Furthermore, Russia cooperates with Armenia on air defense; Armenia is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), a Russian led economic multinational organization; and Armenia is a partner to the Collective Security Treaty Organization. This latter agreement binds Russia to guarantee the borders of Armenia from attack. This is significant because Azerbaijan has received a great deal of support from Turkey over the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said that he is praying for Azeri success in the struggle and has criticized the Minsk Group for not taking “fair and decisive steps” to thwart future conflict. Turkey closed its borders with Armenia in 1993 due to the Nagorno-Karabakh War and this has done significant damage to the Armenian economy since it cannot trade with two of its closest neighbors (it does not trade with Azerbaijan either). Turkey has not shown an appetite to send troops to help Azerbaijan and it does not have a defense treaty with them, but if it is tempted to do so it could result in a wider war since Turkey is a member of NATO.
The Conflict is Heading for a Decisive Conclusion: As noted earlier, both sides are disappointed in the Minsk Group, but the status quo favors Armenian interests since the Azeris have not been able to displace separatists. However, Azerbaijan has outpaced Armenia’s economic development for the past two decades and this has enabled it to have a sizable military buildup. For example, it is estimated that Azerbaijan increased its military spending more than twenty times between 2004-2014 and Azeri President Aliyev boasted that the country’s 2014 defense budget was twice the size of Armenia’s entire state budget. In 2015, Radio Free Europe estimates that the Azeris spent $1.7 billion on defense versus a mere $414 million for Armenia. The Azeris have 66,000 active troops compared to 45,000 for the Armenians and possess a 3:1 advantage in main battle tanks and a 2:1 advantage in artillery. If there is a more robust war, Armenia will probably have to rely on Russian aid. One of the reasons of the present fighting might be that the Azeris are probing the strength of Armenian forces and how much support Armenia might capture in a confrontation. Extempers are aware that Russia is pre-occupied with other foreign policy ventures at the moment with regards to Syria, so Azerbaijan might be using that to its advantage. However, one thing that might limit the Azeris is that their ally Turkey is also distracted with the European migrant crisis, a battle with its Kurdish population, and the Syrian Civil War. Nevertheless, the military gap between both sides in the conflict is growing and is aiding the Azeris. One day they may try to press this to their advantage, especially if they believe that the Minsk Group will not one day return the surrounding districts of Nagorno-Karabakh, but the Azeris would have to have a good occupation strategy since they would be seizing a heavily populated Armenian area.
Sources
“Armenia Tries to Tarnish Azerbaijan’s Achievements” (Azernews, April 4, 2016)
“Armenia Warns Nagorno-Karabakh Clashes Could Turn Into All-Our War” (Reuters, April 4, 2016)
“Azerbaijan, Armenia Locked in Deadly Clashes Over Karabakh” (Agence-France Presse, April 4, 2016)
“Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflict is a Reminder of Europe’s Instability (The Guardian, April 3, 2016)
“Azerbaijan and Armenia Clashes Continue for Third Day” (The Guardian, April 4, 2016)
“Azerbaijan and Armenia in Worst Clashes for Decades” (The Financial Times of London, April 3, 2016)
“Balance of Power: How do Azerbaijan and Armenia Stack Up?” (Radio Free Europe, April 5, 2016)
“Deep-Seated Animosity Paves Way for Armenia, Azerbaijan Violence” (CNN, April 3, 2016)
“Ethnic Conflict Between Armenia and Azerbaijan Flares Anew” (The New York Times, April 4, 2016)
“Nagorno-Karabakh Fighting: Azerbaijan ‘Calls Truce’” (BBC, April 3, 2016)
“Turkish President Backs Azerbaijan in Conflict With Armenia” (The UK Independent, April 3, 2016)
“What’s Behind the Flare-Up in Nagorno-Karabakh?” (The International Crisis Group, April 3, 2016)
“World Powers Call for Azeri-Armenian Ceasefire” (The Irish Times, April 4, 2016)