Overview

With 24 states having some variety of primary/convention/caucus, Super Tuesday had the potential to be the deciding day of the primaries. On the Republican side, John McCain used the day to gain a decisive lead. However, the Democratic debates stated closely contested – the difference currently between Clinton and Obama built almost entirely on super delegates. As such this brief will try to address both the why of the vote as well as the effect that this vote will have on the general election.

Who Won Where and the Delegate Count:  http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D

Republicans

McCain is the undeniable the victor of Super Tuesday, coming out of the elections with a near 2-1 lead over Mitt Romney. A large part of this success can be attributed to Romney and Huckabee splitting the conservative base. In the majority of states their combined vote is larger than McCain’s, and they have one approximately ¾ as many delegates – remember that McCain has benefited from many winner-take-all primaries. This suggests that while the McCain is likely to win the nomination, he won’t have been supported by the broad majority of Republican voters. Because of this, many party members are worried that Tuesday’s results will only heighten the divide between social conservatives and the more moderate elements of the Republican electorate. This divide has two potential implications. First, because a large portion of voters did not voter for McCain, he will lack the broad support to claim a republican mandate going into the convention. The likely result of this is that he is going to have to have a very conservative running mate to ensure that the base doesn’t isolate him in the general elections. Second, anti-McCain sentiment may build in the party, leading to infighting and attack ads that could hurt his image in the remaining primaries and in the general election.

The interesting Super Tuesday story belongs to West Virginia. While some of their delegates will be decided in an upcoming primary, they held a convention on Tuesday to decide approximately half of their total. After the first round Romney was in the lead but lacked the majority needed to get the winner take all vote. In turn, the McCain camp made a deal that they would vote for Huckabee, rather than let Romney win the state. So in a classic case of old time – back room – politics, a little trading led to a Huckabee victory and a great defensive move for the McCain camp.

Democrats

While the on the Republican side Tuesday represented closing of the primaries, for the democrats it suggests that the fight is really just about to gear up. Across the nation, Clinton tended to win the larger states and the northeast by narrow margins and Obama won the Midwest and mountain-west by a sizeable amount. Absent any winner-take-all states, this has made Super Tuesday a virtual wash; Hillary’s lead has stayed at about 80 delegates. What this means is that the race is still way too close to call, especially with Texas – with its large Hispanic population (read: pro Hillary), and much of mid America (generally pro Obama) left to vote.
This means that the race is going to get more heated and potentially dirtier as every delegate will continue to matter. Further, this could have a few potential effects on the convention. First, there may not be a candidate with a clear majority going into convention, leaving the 26 voters pledged to Edwards to be a bargaining chip that decides the candidate. Further, the Clinton campaign has already appealed to have Florida and Michigan counted, arguing that all of the nation’s votes must be counted. This is controversial because Obama deliberately ignored the states, giving Clinton a lead she may not otherwise have earned. It would also undermine the credibility of the DNC, who had promised to punish any state that held its primary too early. All of these have the potential to fracture the Democratic Party for the general election because the different camps will be at each others necks until the end of the convention.

Effect on the Parties

The other element of contention with the current totals is that Clinton only leads because of the support of Super Delegates – unelected delegates, who tend to be party officials who can vote however they please. If these delegates are removed from the total, Obama has a 5 delegate lead on Clinton. This means that the end totals may be decided only by who has more connections and support among the super delegates – an advantage held by Clinton – rather than who one the majority of the support in the primaries. This is problematic because it has the potential to alienate democratic voters – especially Obama supporters – in the general election because they feel that the primary system is an undemocratic waste of time.

Potential Questions
What impact will Super Tuesday have on unity in the Republican Party?
Has the conservative base lost its influence among Republicans?
Can Obama catch up to Hillary?
Will the Democratic race come down to the convention?
Should the super delegate process be eliminated?