Until early November, extempers can expect to run into lots of questions about the midterm elections. These questions may ask you which party will win the elections, what the biggest issue in the elections is going to be, or about specific races happening throughout the country. Usually, if you get a question about a specific race it will be about a Senate or governor’s race because those typically attract more attention than House races. Extempers should have files on the major races and get to know the candidates in those races. To get an idea of what the major races are, extempers should go to the Cook Political Report or Real Clear Politics and see the races that are classified as “tossups.” The “tossup” label designates races where the Democratic and Republican candidates have a chance to win. If you are new to extemp, you will see this labels again in 2012 for the presidential campaign.
This small list provides you with five Senate races to consider this election cycle. Having a file on each of these races would be a good idea.
#1: Nevada (Harry Reid vs. Sharron Angle)
This race pits Harry Reid, the sitting Senate Majority Leader against former Nevada Assemblywoman Sharron Angle. Without question, this is THE race of this cycle. Although Reid commands a lot of influence in Congress as the Majority Leader, that post has not been an indication of a candidate’s re-election chances. In 2004, Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle lost a re-election bid against John Thune in South Dakota. In 2008, Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was nearly knocked off in Kentucky. Angle has sought to portray Reid as out of touch with Nevada voters and in an anti-incumbent climate Reid is very vulnerable. If the Republicans had a better candidate Reid would probably lose. However, Angle won the primary and analysts have said that she is too far to the right. Some analysts have argued that if Angle would win if she kept her mouth shut. She has gotten into trouble for telling supporters that Sharia law exists in Dearborn, Michigan and Frankford, Texas, and there’s a rumor in the campaign that she’s a Scientologist. Nevada voters don’t like either candidate in this race and they can actually vote for “none of the above.” The polls are VERY close on this one and the “none of the above” option might just help Reid squeak this one out.
#2: Illinois (Ron Kirk vs. Alexi Giannoulias):
This is President Obama’s old Senate seat and it is an open seat because Roland Burris, who was appointed by former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich, decided not to run for re-election. The Republicans nominated Congressman Ron Kirk while the Democrats nominated State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. Kirk is trying to capitalize on Blagojevich’s corruption problems and voter dissatisfaction with Democrats on the national level. For his part, Giannoulias is trying to paint Kirk as a Washington insider. Kirk was cruising in the polls early in the race, but his misstatements about his military record killed his campaign’s momentum. Kirk and Giannoulias have traded the lead over the last several weeks and the outcome is still in doubt. A win by Kirk would be a significant PR blow to the White House, though.
#3: Colorado (Michael Bennett vs. Ken Buck):
Colorado was one of the states that switched political colors and went blue in 2008. Bennett is a freshman senator who is filling the rest of Ken Salazar’s Senate term. Salazar left to become Secretary of the Interior after the 2008 presidential election. Extempers should keep in mind that this is an interesting election because voters are voting for this position twice. They will vote to see who will fill the seat until January 3rd and then who will the seat after January 3rd. Therefore, whomever wins this race will be seated during the lame duck session of Congress, which is big for conservatives who fear that the Democrats will try to pass unpopular initiatives during the lame duck session. Bennett is vulernable because of his political inexperience, but he is facing tea party candidate Ken Buck, who is the Weld County District Attorney. Bennett is trying to argue that Buck is too far to the right, but Colorado voters don’t seem to be buying it. Buck has a narrow lead in recent polls. The loss of Colorado, which is considered a tossup state for 2012, would signify how unpopular President Obama’s agenda is among independent voters. However, a victory would vindicate Obama because he has campaigned heavily for Bennett in the Democratic primary and in the general election.
#4: Washington (Patty Murray vs. Dino Rossi):
In 2004, Dino Rossi came within 133 voters of becoming the next governor of Washington state. Rossi held the lead through two recounts, but lost a third and Republican forces claim that Democrats stole the election. Rossi ran again in 2008, but lost. He’s back for a third time and challenges Patty Murray, who was first elected to the Senate in 1992, the infamous “Year of the Woman.” Murray has a powerful position as the senior member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, but with the anti-incumbent mood across the country that’s not necessarily an advantage she can play up this cycle. Murray isn’t unpopular among Washington voters and Rossi is falling into the trap of acquiring the “loser” label and being seen as a perpetual candidate. Both candidates have traded the lead in recent polls. Rossi led the RealClearPolitics averages until an outlier poll put Murray up by 14 points. The race is significant for Republicans on the West Coast because they are currently shut out of the Senate there. Rossi might form a beachhead they could expand from and in-state Republican forces would celebrate Rossi finally winning a race.
#5: Kentucky (Rand Paul vs. Jack Conway):
This race is between Republican candidate Rand Paul, son of former Libertarian candidate and Texas Congressman Ron Paul, and Democratic State Attorney General Jack Conway. The race will fill the seat vacated by Republican Jim Bunning, who was forced to step down by Republican forces. Paul upset Secretary of State Trey Grayson in the Republican primary and opened up a large lead on Conway. However, Paul’s comments about the Civil Rights Act and comments about 9/11 and Medicare have made him vulnerable. Paul’s strategy is to tie Conway to Obama, while Conway’s is to try to make Paul look too extreme. In a conservative state like Kentucky, which votes Democratic in-state, but Republican nationally, Paul has more of an advantage. Conway has openly supported President Obama’s healthcare reform bill, a rarity among Democrats in this cycle. The race has been in the GOP column for the duration of the 2010 campaign, but polls show it may be tightening. Paul will need a large conservative turnout from rural areas of the state to offset Conway’s advantage in more urban areas to win. A victory for Paul would be a huge victory for the Tea Party movement, while a defeat would serve to point out that Tea Party candidates are too radical to be elected to national office.
Note: Other races extempers will want to have information on are Florida, West Virginia, and California. Although both races are becoming more certain in their eventual outcomes, you may still get questions on them before November.
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