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Facing the threat of an insurgency from within his own ranks, Speaker of the House John Boehner shocked the nation’s political establishment on Friday by announcing his resignation from the speakership, as well as his House seat, effective October 30. Although obtaining the top position in the House, which is third in line for the presidency, was a remarkable accomplishment for Boehner, he had come under fire from Tea Party conservatives in recent years for not taking a harder line against President Barack Obama’s agenda. Conservatives grew irate that Boehner proved unable to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA), was willing to broker continuing resolutions with the aid of substantial numbers of Democrats, and proved unwilling to risk another government shutdown over federal funding for Planned Parenthood. He, along with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, had become a punching bag for the Republican Party’s 2016 presidential candidates and Boehner began to feel as if he was becoming a distraction to the larger Republican agenda. Consequently, Boehner is deciding to leave his high profile position in Washington, thereby helping Republicans avoid a bitter leadership battle that could have reduced the party’s ability to defend its congressional majorities next November. Nevertheless, without Boehner substantial questions loom about whether his replacement will be able to form a good working relationship with the President and whether that individual will find it just as difficult to control an increasingly splintered caucus.
This topic brief will explain the likely reasons for Boehner’s decision to resign, profile the internal Republican battle to replace him, and then discuss how Boehner’s exit could affect the management of the federal government for the rest of President Obama’s tenure and the ongoing Republican presidential nominating contest.
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Reasons for Boehner’s Resignation
Arriving in Congress in 1991, Boehner slowly worked his way up the Republican ranks. By the late 1990s he was Chairman of the House Republican Conference and was the Chairman of the House Education Committee during the first five years of George W. Bush’s presidency. USA Today reveals on September 27 that Boehner oversaw the passage of No Child Left Behind, illustrating his ability to get significant legislative packages through Congress. In February 2006, Boehner became the House Majority Leader, replacing Tom DeLay after the latter was indicted on conspiracy charges. Boehner’s victory was a small upset as he defeated Majority Whip Roy Blunt of Missouri (who is now one of Missouri’s senators) by thirteen votes. When the Republicans lost their majority following the 2006 midterm elections, Boehner became Minority Leader as former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert decided not to retain his leadership position. When the Republicans won the 2010 midterm elections and regained their majority in the House, Boehner became Speaker of the House. He was the first Ohio resident to serve as Speaker since 1931.
The Guardian explains on September 26 that Boehner had a track record that would normally make him an ideal candidate for the very conservative wing of the Republican Party. For example, he had a 100% pro-life record, had a resounding endorsement from the National Rifle Association (NRA), and had a reputation as a fiscal hawk. Unfortunately, leadership has a tendency to make even the most conservative (or liberal) leaders appear less so to other members in their ranks. The Washington Post argues on September 25 that Boehner was more conservative than other members of his party in 1991, but House Republicans have grown even more conservative since that time. Whereas conservative politicians such as Boehner could accept small gains at the expense of sacrificing elements of their agenda, today’s younger House Republicans, especially those affiliated with the Tea Party, tend to see negotiations with Democrats, and especially President Obama, as a sign of surrender.
In recent years, Boehner has become a target of conservative groups, who allege that he has not done enough to establish clear contrasts with the President’s agenda. When Republicans won the 2010 midterms, the Tea Party and other very conservative groups argued that they helped the Republicans win. This was partly true as conservative turnout was impressive in 2010, with voters driven to block President Obama’s agenda on climate change and healthcare. However, one could also argue that the Tea Party’s grassroots activism caused the party to lose very winnable Senate races that year in Delaware, Colorado, and Nevada. The Republican Party declared victory in the midterms as they continued to weaken what was once a filibuster-proof majority for Democrats in the Senate and recaptured the House for the first time since 2006, but Boehner quickly realized that he had a tough road ahead. Very conservative Republicans demanded that Boehner pass legislation that would revoke the Affordable Care Act (ACA). When this was blocked by a Democratic Senate, Boehner was then pressured to attach defunding measures to government spending bills, which created a government shutdown that lasted for more than two weeks in 2013. The shutdown backfired on Republicans, with their poll ratings taking a bigger hit than President Obama, and then-Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell had to broker a deal to get the government running again (something that he used to remind Kentucky voters that he was still useful in his re-election campaign last year).
While it is in the best interests of the Republican Party to present a united front to win the 2016 presidential election, the party’s primary has been a very fractured contest. While this was expected, the entry of Donald Trump into the race has taken attention away from candidates once deemed as potential winners such as former Texas Governor Rick Perry and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, both of whom have dropped out of the contest. The party’s rank-and-file also seem to be gravitating to insurgent candidates such as Trump, Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina instead of favoring candidates that would typically perform well in other election cycles such as former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Ohio Governor John Kasich. Conservative groups have recently identified Boehner as a target because of the GOP’s seeming inability to thwart President Obama’s agenda despite winning control of the Senate last year. Videos in recent months about Planned Parenthood, a non-profit organization that provides reproductive health services, that allegedly show the group selling fetal tissue have sparked pro-life organizations to demand action from Republican legislators. Conservative Republicans want to pass legislation defunding the group, but President Obama has vowed to veto such legislation and Senate Democrats are blocking it. As Forbes points out on September 25, Boehner was being backed into a corner where he could hold a vote to defund Planned Parenthood, which would be part of a temporary funding bill, or making a deal with parts of the Democratic caucus to keep the government running. The problem is that Boehner has been forced to make deals with Democrats in the past to avoid government shutdowns or the U.S. breaching its debt ceiling, causing President Obama to lament that Boehner cannot control his ranks to be a reliable legislative partner. USA Today explains on September 27 that twenty-four House conservatives warned Boehner that if he backed down from a showdown with the President over Planned Parenthood that they would pursue a vote on his position as Speaker. Faced with the prospect of a bitter intra-party struggle, Boehner opted to announce his resignation, which gives him the flexibility to cut a deal with Democrats. According to The Chicago Tribune on September 27, Boehner announced that there would not be a government shutdown when he announced his resignation.
The Fight to Replace Boehner
Time writes on September 27 that Republicans are now on the clock to find a replacement for Boehner by the end of October. The frontrunner for the position is House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California, who has a great deal of experience but is somewhat distrusted by conservative groups because of his willingness to cut a deal with Democrats over immigration. Working under Boehner also puts McCarthy under a cloud of suspicion that he will just be another moderate that will not try to draw contrasts with the White House. Politico explains on September 25 that Representative Daniel Webster of Florida is positioning himself as the more conservative option, but there are questions about whether Webster will even retain his seat due to a redistricting fight back in his state. Still, The New York Times writes on September 29 that Webster does have experience in a presiding role, having served as the Speaker of the Florida State House. Some fiscal conservatives were hoping that Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin would vacate his position on the House Ways and Means Committee and run, but he announced last Friday that he had no interest in seeking the job, possibly because he still has his eyes on a presidential run in the future.
Most analysts are watching how the jockeying for Speaker will affect the Republican leadership in the House. Other positions such as House Majority Leader will become vacant if McCarthy moves into the Speaker chair and other Republicans leave their current positions to take higher-tier jobs. For example, it is expected that Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana, who is the House Majority Whip, will seek the Majority Leader position. However, Time says that this could prove a headache for Republicans because Scalise once spoke to a white supremacist group in 2002 (Scalise says that he was unaware of the group’s affiliation when he spoke to them). If Scalise moves up, that would free Representative Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, the current chief deputy whip, to become the House Majority Whip. McHenry is known for his conservative positions, but The New York Times cited earlier notes that he has tempered his profile in recent years.
Extempers should take note that McCarthy is likely to be the next Speaker because he lacks a really strong challenger. Conservatives may favor Webster, but questions about whether Webster will retain his House seat may make them less likely to vote for him. Furthermore, Tea Party Republicans are a small part of the House caucus and the media exaggerates their numbers. For example, the Freedom Caucus does not have the votes to choose the next Speaker, although they can later create complications for that individual by making demands on funding bills. Representative Devin Nunes of California has said that Republicans need to pay less heed to more conservative members within their ranks. Nevertheless, there are questions of whether McCarthy will be able to rope radically conservative House members behind him if he succeeds Boehner. The New York Times points out that McCarthy is only in his fifth term, has limited legislative accomplishments, and has never chaired a committee, so he would be one of the most inexperienced Speakers of the House in American history.
Boehner’s resignation may also set off leadership races in the Senate. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, like Boehner, has not been popular with conservatives since the 2010 midterms. Tea Party forces tried to oust McConnell last year – Matt Bevin, their candidate in that race, is currently the Republican Party’s candidate for governor of Kentucky – but McConnell beat that challenge back by securing the endorsement of Senator Rand Paul and blasting Bevin on the airwaves. McConnell, who began his career as a Republican moderate, has never felt at ease with the more aggressive posture his party is taking. McConnell’s ability to make deals has become unpopular within the Republican ranks as well. Politico writes on September 25 that Representative Matt Salmon of Arizona, a noted Republican hardliner, was said to have texted Senator Mike Lee of Utah after Boehner’s resignation to announce that McConnell would likely become the new target of the Tea Party’s ire. In fact, The Wall Street Journal explains on September 25 Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, who is seeking the presidency, greeted news of Boehner’s resignation by wondering when McConnell would do the same. Losing McConnell could prove disastrous for the Republicans, though, because of his legislative ability and if McConnell resigned a Democrat would replace him since Kentucky’s sitting governor is a Democrat. Still, rational actions have not been the Republican Party’s forte in recent years, so nothing can be disqualified as a possibility in the months ahead.
The Impact of Boehner’s Resignation on Governing the Nation and 2016
Boehner’s resignation will likely help President Obama and congressional Republicans avoid a government shutdown, but The Washington Post postulates on September 27 that Boehner may be setting the country up for disaster. For example, the current funding bill that Boehner was being pressured over will only fund the government until December 11. At this time, a new funding bill will be needed so that the country does not suffer another shutdown. Also, CNN explains on September 26 that other priorities loom about raising the debt ceiling (not doing so could mean an immediate 40% cut in government services), rebooting the Export-Import Bank, passing a new highway bill, and possibly making a deal on reforms to the tax code. Although Boehner told CNN on September 27 that his successor must accept small victories, there is a worst case scenario where a new leader may not be able to resist pressure from conservative members of the caucus and that may lead to more gridlock, potentially dragging down the U.S. economy and jamming up the wheels of government before the next presidential election. After all, if McCarthy cannot control his members, the chances of reaching a lasting budget deal with the White House are slim to none and he will soon be in the same position as Boehner of having to rely on Democratic votes to keep the government open.
Furthermore, Boehner’s resignation is likely to make the more conservative sides of the GOP even more demanding on the party’s leadership. CNN wrote in a separate article on September 27 that New York Representative Peter King is warning that Boehner’s resignation is throwing “red meat” to the “crazies” that have taken over the party. Kasich also complained that Boehner’s resignation shows that Washington’s dysfunction has reached a new level where people are no longer given credit for brokering deals across party lines and getting things done. It can be argued that the Republican Party currently has an image problem. Its frontrunner is someone who has managed to offend Latinos and women during his presidential campaign and the party is still seen as one that favors the wealthy and privileged. National Public Radio writes on September 27 that Americans have become more distrustful of government during the Obama years, but for the GOP this has translated into its voters favoring candidates that run against the political establishment, which puts its own leaders in the crosshairs since the Republicans currently control Congress. As a result, The New York Times finds on September 26 that the Republican Party has become one of “brinksmanship, imminent credit defaults, threatened shutdowns…the party of ‘no’ and the party of ire.” The Democrats do have their fair share of divisions, but the party that is out of power tends to have its divisions exacerbated and that is what Republicans are facing right now. Boehner’s resignation may further divide the party at a time when it needs unity most, although his resignation, according to The Huffington Post on September 27, helps the party’s House candidates avoid being primaried by outsiders that would accuse them of backing an unpopular Speaker.
As far as the presidential contest is concerned, Republicans have been asked for their views on Boehner stepping down. RealClearPolitics writes on September 26 that Florida Senator Marco Rubio, perceived as one of the party’s more moderate candidates, told the Values Voter Summit in Washington D.C. last week that it was time for a change, while Texas Senator Ted Cruz and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee supported the decision. Possibly striking a new tone for his campaign, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who has been critical of Boehner and McConnell in the past, said that he was appreciative of Boehner’s contributions to the party. This may be a sign that Christie is trying to pivot more to the center as the far-right ground is being occupied by Trump. According to The Atlantic on September 27, Boehner’s exit may mark the end of a five-year war between establishment Republicans and the Tea Party in the House, but it is more likely that it could become a flashpoint for political divisions that are playing out within the Republican ranks. Extempers should currently conceptualize the Republican primary as a primary within a primary. On the conservative fringe, Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, and Mike Huckabee are competing on one side, while more established candidates such as Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, and Chris Christie are trying to win over the traditional base of the party. The winners of those two contests are likely to be the two that will face off down the stretch to determine who will square off against the Democratic challenger next November. Therefore, extempers should frame Boehner’s resignation in the context of these two primaries because far-right candidates will suggest that Boehner is a problem and the GOP needs to confront the White House more, while moderates will offer concern and try to temper expectations of what the GOP can accomplish without a Republican residing at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
As someone who chronicled Boehner’s rise (at the time for Victory Briefs back in 2006), it is somewhat sad to see Boehner leave. This appears to be a situation where Boehner was no longer suited to lead a party that he had become distanced from, although one can take that idea too far since conservative opponents of Boehner lacked the votes to get rid of him. Still, his departure is a disconcerting sign that the GOP is veering away from the toleration of moderate views that it will need to regain the White House and become more than a party that wins midterm elections when voter turnout is typically low.