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2015 was not a good year for Rahm Emanuel. While in the first year of a second term as mayor of one of America’s largest cities, Emanuel continued to spark controversy with regards to his open combat with the city’s teachers’ unions, his perceived unwillingness to confront police brutality, and allegations that he eavesdropped on local news media. Recently, Emanuel has faced calls from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party to resign over his mishandling of the Laquan McDonald shooting where the city government refused to release dash-cam footage of the incident until required to do so by a court order. This incident, representing the killing of African American suspects at the hands of the Chicago Police Department, has caused Emanuel to lose support among Chicago’s black residents, who were instrumental in his runoff victory over Jesus “Chuy” Garcia last year. As the former chief of staff to President Barack Obama and a significant fundraiser for former President Bill Clinton, Emanuel is well connected with the nation’s Democrat establishment. However, criticisms of his leadership in Chicago, where he has openly fought some of the most reliable parts of the Democratic base, could soon make him toxic to other national Democrats and thereby imperil his political career.
This topic brief will highlight some of the problems faced by Rahm Emanuel in Chicago, explain how Emanuel have moved to quiet existing controversies, and then analyze whether Emanuel could be forced from office prematurely as a result of Chicago’s ongoing problems.
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Existing Problems
It is little surprise that Emanuel has having a hard time leading Chicago. The city is noted more for what is wrong with it than what is working, hence why Americans have stereotypes of Chicago as a high tax, politically corrupt, and significantly bureaucratic city. While serving as a fundraiser for former President Bill Clinton and a congressman, Emanuel was noted for his bombastic style, never hesitating to curse out subordinates or those that he felt were not living up to his standards. Although some observers warned that this could make governing Chicago difficult, due to the various alliances that a mayor has to form to create a stable political coalition, Emanuel was elected mayor in February 2011. In that election he received 55% of the vote and he received significant support from Chicago’s African-American community, which warmly received him due to his role as chief of staff in the early years of the Obama administration.
Since that time, though, Emanuel has struggled through various crises, some of which he created and some of which he simply inherited. One of Chicago’s biggest issues in economic. Fortune writes on December 16 that New York City and Los Angeles grew four times as fast as Chicago in the last decade and Chicago has lagged behind other major metropolitan centers in terms of job and income growth. Emanuel’s administration has tried to bolster these areas by meeting with business leaders and increasing spending on infrastructure. The Emanuel administration has also worked to tighten the city’s budget, but doing so has put it at odds with teachers’ unions. For example, in 2013 Emanuel ordered the closure of fifty of the city’s schools, which The Washington Post reports on January 2 was “the largest one-time closure of public schools in U.S. history.” Many of these school closings took place in African-American and Latino neighborhoods as well. However, the teachers’ unions were arguably angered the most due to the fact that fewer schools meant fewer union employees. Even worse for Emanuel, Fortune notes that the Chicago Teachers Union, which represents 27,000 teachers in the city, recently voted to move toward a strike later in the year on the grounds that Emanuel is trying to fiscally rehabilitate Chicago at their expense. The teachers’ union complains that Emanuel is channeling nearly $100 million to overhaul the Chicago Riverwalk, a major tourist attraction, when it should be funneling that money toward the city schools. Also, Emanuel could face a revolt from some middle-class and upper-class residents in the city as he is attempting to close budget gaps through a significant hike in property taxes. The Washington Post argues that this tax will be a tough pill for many Chicagoans to swallow as it will be the highest property tax increase in city history. Extempers that wish to see more problems that took place during Emanuel’s first term should read our prior topic brief on the Chicago mayoral election, which can be found in the 2014-2015 section of the premium content archive.
The biggest problem that Emanuel currently faces is changing the operations and public perceptions of the Chicago Police Department (CPD). Problems began when a judge ordered the city to release dashboard-camera footage of the shooting of Laquan McDonald, a seventeen-year-old African-American male. McDonald was shot sixteen times by Officer Jason Van Dyke on the evening of October 20, 2014 and the shooting was supposedly justified because McDonald had a four-inch blade. Van Dyke wrote in his report of the incident that McDonald charged him and other officers and they retaliated due to the “imminent threat” that he posed. However, the dashboard-camera evidence painted another picture, showing that McDonald was walking away when Van Dyke opened fire. Coming in the aftermath of the controversial shootings of other African-Americans at the hands of police across the country such as Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri and Tamir Rice in Cleveland, Ohio, the footage created massive street demonstrations against Emanuel and the CPD. What makes the McDonald controversy explosive is that the incident occurred while Emanuel was in the midst of running for re-election and if the footage had been released, especially on the heels of the Brown shooting, it may have doomed him. The Washington Post explains that e-mails given to the media show that Emanuel’s aides were concerned about the impact of the video and in fact, the city agreed to pay the McDonald family $5 million in a pre-emptive settlement before the family hired an attorney to pursue a lawsuit for wrongful death. That settlement included a clause for the footage to never be released, which reeked of political officials trying to protect themselves from an angry public. Emanuel made other missteps in the McDonald controversy, though. First, he defended CPD Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy, but when protests grew he had to backtrack and fire McCarthy on December 1. Also, he tried to paint the shooting as an isolated one, something that is becoming more difficult in light of new accusations against the department. For example, on December 26 two more black Chicagoans – a teenager with mental health issues by the name of Quintonio LeGrier and his fifty-five-year-old grandmother Bettie Jones – were gunned down by police. The Economist of December 30 reports that the CPD has admitted that Jones should not have been shot, but they have been slow to release other details of the incident. Statistical data shows that the CPD may have a greater tendency to use lethal force against minorities as well. Reuters explains on December 30 that Chicago police shoot more than fifty people per year (an average of seventeen of which incidents result in a fatality), with 74% of those fired upon being African American. And even before these incidents took place the international press had taken the CPD to task. The Nation explains on December 17 that an investigation by the British newspaper The Guardian showed earlier this year that the CPD was running a secret detention and interrogation facility in Homan Square, with some of these abuses taking place during Emanuel’s watch. The detention facility not only violated suspects constitutional rights, but it led to the wrongful convictions of many African Americans who were forced to confess to crimes that they did not commit.
In the face of these challenges, Emanuel’s critics have demanded his removal from office. The problem is that Chicago is not California or Wisconsin and does not allow for the recall of public officials. Thus, Emanuel’s opponents have instead demanded that he resign. These include the Reverend Al Sharpon, who the conservative National Review notes on January 2 has called for Emanuel to step down due to his mismanagement of the McDonald controversy. The Hill adds on December 28 that Sharpton has criticized Emanuel for being insensitive to the plight of the McDonald family and the plight of LeGrier and his grandmother. The Black Lives Matter Movement is also demanding action and The Chicago Tribune writes on December 31 that it has stationed dozens of protesters at Emanuel’s Ravenswood home to demand that he step down. Protesters have said that they will maintain their stay outside of the Emanuel’s residence for sixteen days, with each day meant to represent one of the bullets that was fired into McDonald. And before extempers think that these voices are isolated they should remember that polls show Emanuel’s approval rating at all-time lows. Al Jazeera reports on December 18 that 51% of Chicagoans in a recent poll want him to resign and his approval rating is currently at 18%. Therefore, if Emanuel wishes to retain any political clout for the remainder of his second term he must take steps to convince Chicagoans that he takes the problems of the city, but namely the issue of police reform, very seriously.
Emanuel’s Moves for Reform
As protests grew larger against his administration, Emanuel changed course when discussing the CPD and how it needed to handle future interactions with Chicagoans. He fired McCarthy and then gave an emotional address to the City Council on December 9, where he talked about the need to confront police brutality. He also used that occasion to apologize for the McDonald shooting, although he continued to defend the city’s decision to withhold the release of the footage and denied that political calculations played any role in that decision.
In recent weeks, Emanuel has proposed a variety of reforms that will change some of the tactics of the CPD. Reuters explains that these include doubling the number of tasers that officers will be provided with so that each nighttime patrol will have one. Critics of the McDonald incident note that the officers at the scene did not have tasers, so they may have been more prone to using deadly force. Furthermore, the city will add more body cameras to provide hard evidence of police-suspect interactions and will try to enhance training for when officers encounter mentally ill people. As Reuters notes, interactions with suspects who have mental illnesses or who are under the influence of narcotics are rising but police forces nationwide are rarely trained in how to deal with these people. Emmanuel’s overall goal is for law enforcement to have better relations with its communities and approach individuals, especially from minority communities, in a less hostile manner. However, some of Emanuel’s proposed actions have been greeted tepidly by the Chicago police union which has likened the policies to grandstanding and that they will do very little to change the way that police have to deal with suspects. For example, union officials note that tasers are not always reliable and there have been cases where people have been significantly injured or even killed with the instruments.
Another problem that Emanuel will have to fix is finding a new chief of the CPD. The Los Angeles Times writes on January 3 that this will not be an easy task as the CPD has a history of corruption and someone taking the job risks ruining their career due to the city’s violent crime problems. United Press International notes on January 3 that Chicago had the most homicides of any city in America last year, with 468 murders versus 416 in 2014. This constituted an increase of 12.5%, slightly above the national increase in homicides in the nation’s largest twenty-five cities, which was 11%. Still, there is a silver lining in the data in that violent crime in Chicago (acts of robbery, aggravated battery, burglary, and theft) is on the decline. The city may also find a problem in its search for a new chief because of the way that McCarthy was summarily dismissed. The Los Angeles Times subtly recommends that Emmanuel might want to consider going outside of law enforcement when making the hire, noting that in 1960 Mayor Richard J. Daley hired criminologist O.W. Wilson, who was then a dean at the University of California-Berkeley to lead the CPD. Despite his lack of police experience, Wilson was credited with improving the CPD’s morale, raising its pay, hiring more officers, and bringing new officials into the department that offered new perspectives on policing. Extempers should carefully watch who Emanuel hires as the next CPD chief as that hire will be scrutinized by the national media and minority advocacy groups across the nation.
There are a few reforms that Emanuel does not appear willing to make, though. The Washington Post reports that African-American leaders recently pressed him to consider an independent civilian review board to look over police shootings. This would seemingly replace the Independent Police Review Authority, which is charged with investigating complaints about the CPD’s use of force. According to The New Yorker on December 31, critics of the Independent Police Review Authority argue that it has been ineffective in holding officers accountable, pointing out that in 400 incidents of police shootings of civilians since 2007 it has only once found a shooting to be unjustified. Nevertheless, Emanuel does not seem keen on this suggestion, partly due to the fact that it could produce a sizable backlash from the CPD and thereby produce significant problems between the mayor and another public employees union. Another suggestion from black leaders – that there be public hearings on the McDonald video and how it was decided to keep the video away from the public for so long – has been rejected by Emanuel as well. It is possible that Emanuel views this as opening the door to a political circus where his critics might be emboldened to continue accusing him of playing politics with the incident. By not meeting these demands, though, Emanuel is risking the continued alienation of elements of the city’s African-American community, a pool of votes Emanuel needs if he wishes to remain mayor beyond his present term.
Forcing Emanuel from Office
As noted earlier in this brief, Emanuel’s opponents are pressing for his recall, but the option to do so does not exist. Illinois law currently allows for a governor to be recalled, which took place in the wake of the Rod Blagojevich scandal in 2010, but no other officials can suffer a similar fate. CNN reports on December 29 that Democratic state representative La Shawn Ford has submitted legislation that would allow Chicago voters to recall their mayor. However, there are some sizable obstacles that are in the path of this bill being approved by the Illinois state legislature. First, the bill has to receive the support of two-thirds of both chambers of the legislature because it is trying to impose a rule on a locality. The Washington Post has noted that few officials in Chicago’s political establishment have endorsed a recall movement, although the state’s Republican Governor Bruce Rauner recently put his support behind the measure. A second hurdle to a recall, as explained by The Economist, is that there is no pre-determined successor to replace Emanuel, who still has close connections with the national Democratic establishment.
And indeed, Emanuel’s support runs to the top of the national party with Emanuel’s Clinton ties possibly saving him for the time being. The Hill reports on December 15 that Democratic presidential frontrunner Hillary Clinton has openly stated her confidence in Emanuel, although she disagreed with him about the need for a Justice Department investigation into the CPD. President Barack Obama has largely remained mum on the controversy, but it is hard to imagine that he would vocally advocate for the removal of his former chief of staff. These factors make it easier for Emanuel to possible ride out the public outrage directed against him over the McDonald and LeGrier shootings even though it may ruin his chances to ever win another term as the city’s mayor. Nevertheless, it should be noted that Emanuel’s support may be thin because if new evidence emerges that he directed a coverup of the McDonald video then he would become toxic to the Democratic establishment.
If Emanuel was forced out, it could constitute a turning point for the Black Lives Matter movement. Observers disagree over whether the movement’s decentralized nature is a strength or a weakness. Without a hierarchy the movement can be accessible and sell itself as grassroots advocacy, but without that hierarchy it can make it difficult to involve the group effectively in political decision-making. Protesters may want Emanuel out, but it is unclear whether they can convince enough leaders in the city and elsewhere to endorse the state legislature’s recall bill and even then, it is not clear whether they could get enough votes to send Emanuel packing. For example, The Chicago Tribune castigated Emanuel’s critics on December 27, saying that the city’s black population should rally behind Emanuel because of his support for greater gun control, longer school days, free community college, and his willingness to experiment with other education models. However, if the Black Lives Matter movement forced Emanuel out they could become a reckoning force in the Democratic Party, which even the conservative National Review admits on January 4 the Democratic establishment and the national media would have to take note of.
What is certain is that Chicago’s ongoing controversies are doing immeasurable damage to Emanuel’s political brand. Once revered as someone that could get things done in the heat of political battle, Emanuel is struggling to find a center of gravity as problems mount in Chicago’s law enforcement, education, and political institutions. It is very likely that if he survives his term of office that it will be his last, but stranger things have taken place in Chicago politics. If in some way Emanuel can fix the CPD and regain the trust of black voters, he might still have a job to fight for in 2018, but as of right now his prospects do not look good.