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In 2011, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) secured the approval of the United Nations Security Council to intervene in Libya to prevent Muammar Gaddafi from slaughtering civilians. Gaddafi was in the midst of a widespread revolt after he used violence against demonstrators that were inspired by the Arab Spring, which by that point rocked Tunisia and Egypt. However, NATO quickly moved from protecting civilians via no fly zones to regime change and in October 2011, anti-government rebels caught up to Gaddafi and executed him. Although President Obama wanted to avoid another Iraq, that is what transpired in Libya except this time no U.S. forces were committed to postwar reconstruction. Instead, Libya gradually devolved into political in-fighting and civil war and much like Iraq and Syria today, the country is under threat from the Islamic State, which is attempting to establish a foothold in the North African country to strike out at Libya’s neighbors and across the Mediterranean at Europe. Last week, in a speech at the National Defense University in Washington, President Barack Obama said that the biggest mistake of his presidency was not planning the reconstruction of Libya better, but there are some signs that things could improve. For example, the leader of a UN-approved government, Fayez al-Serraj, arrived last week to serve as Libya’s new prime minister and quickly won over some Tripoli militias and the loyalty of the heads of the central bank and national oil company. Still, al-Serraj has a tough road ahead of him to get Libya running smoothly again and he must handle militias, win over opposition legislators, and secure more economic support from the West so that Libya does not become a “Somalia on the Mediterranean” that Western policy analysts most fear.
This topic brief will highlight some of the major people and vocabulary that extempers should know when talking about Libya’s problems, explain what those problems are, and then analyze what steps al-Serraj needs to take immediately to put Libya on a more stable foundation.
Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.
Important Vocabulary
Muammar Gaddafi: Former dictator of Libya who ruled between 1969 and 2011. Gaddafi ruled Libya with an iron grip and was a consistent thorn in the side of the West during the late twentieth century. After the invasion of Iraq in 2003, Gaddafi gave up his weapons of mass destruction and started to liberalize elements of the Libyan economy. However, that did not prevent the West from aligning against him in 2011 when he cracked down violently on protesters calling for his ouster. Those protesters mirrored the tactics that brought change to the governments of Tunisia and Egypt. He was caught by rebels in October 2011 and executed. His death left a power vacuum in the country that has yet to be filled.
Government of National Accord (GNA): The interim government of Libya that was established via negotiations under United Nations supervision in December 2015. The GNA is endorsed by the UN Security Council and calls for a government of seventeen ministers under the leadership of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. The government arrived in Tripoli on March 30, although it had to arrive by boat from Tunisia since rebels threatened to shoot planes out of the sky and did not allow GNA officials to land at the nation’s airports. For the government to have power, though, it must receive executive authority from the House of Representatives.
Khalifa Haftar: A powerful Libyan general that is backed by the Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. He has aspirations to be the nation’s defense minister and is popular among Libyans that live in the east. However, he has links to the old Gaddafi regime as he helped Gaddafi’s coup in 1969, but he did try to launch a coup against Gaddafi in the late 1980s. He lived for several decades in the United States and helped Libyan rebels overthrow Gaddafi. Currently, he is working with the House of Representatives to fight Islamic militias. Depending on his political aspirations he could be a problem for Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj.
Martin Kobler: The current United Nations envoy to Libya. Kobler has called upon the House of Representatives to convene and transfer sufficient executive powers to Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. He has voiced concern that getting militias and all parties to support the new unity government is a top priority. He has expressed anxiety about the nation’s security and humanitarian situations.
Fayez al-Sarraj: Former engineer who was named by the United Nations peace process as the new prime minister of Libya. al-Sarraj comes from a prominent Libyan family and his father Mustafa was credited as one of the founders of the modern Libyan state following its independence from Italy. To receive significant power, though, he must receive it from the HoR. Also, there are questions about whether al-Sarraj can command enough authority because he was named to the post for being uncontroversial. Without a sufficient power base he might be a leader that has international support, but little domestic backing and thereby have little power to fix the problems that ail Libya at the present time.
The General National Congress (GNC): The GNC used to be the legislative authority of Libya until the drafting of a new constitution led to it being dissolved. However, the GNC can also refer to members of the first GNC that were not re-elected in 2014. These members aligned with militia groups and then pushed the House of Representatives out of Tripoli in 2015. Opponents say that the GNC is made up of individuals that wish to impose Islamic rule on the country. It recently announced that it would step down so that Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj could exercise more rule over the country.
The House of Representatives (HoR): Not to be confused with its American counterpart, the HoR is the internationally recognized Libyan parliament. Unlike the rebels that used to control Tripoli, it is more secular in orientation. After Islamists lost elections in 2014, the HoR was violently forced out of Tripoli. It is currently operating from the eastern city of Tobruk. Opponents accuse it of sheltering old Gaddafi loyalists and that it wishes to bring back elements of the old dictator’s regime. The HoR argues that opponents to its rule wish to impose Islamic rule on Libya.
Petroleum Facilities Guard: The semi-military force that is currently tasked with protecting Libya’s oil fields, especially in the Eastern part of the country. Oil is a very significant economic commodity, providing the bulk of the federal government’s revenues. The Guard has recently clashed with ISIS militants, with five Guard members killed in a pitched battle earlier this month. Strengthening this institution might be important so that ISIS militants never seize Libya’s oilfields and then use that commodity to bring in more revenue.
Libya’s Current Problems
ISIS Activity: Although ISIS is predominately fighting in Iraq and Syria, some of its recent propaganda is calling on foreign fighters to go to Libya. Intelligence reports suggest that ISIS controls 180 miles of the Libyan coastline around Sirte, the coastal town that was the birthplace of Gaddafi. ISIS has found it difficult to project force from the area that it controls, possibly due to the fact that it is being challenged by the Libyan Army and other rival militias, but there is still a significant security risk due to its presence. The United States has launched a few air operations against ISIS in Libya and analysts warn that ISIS could grow stronger, threaten Libya’s oil supplies, and use Libya as a base to undermine other North African nations. A strong ISIS presence in Libya could also help the group lead attacks on Europe.
It Could Become a New Migrant Destination: Due to the recent agreement between the European Union (EU) and Turkey, migrants that are caught fleeing over the Aegean can be sent back to Turkey. If successful, this agreement could choke off one of the routes that migrants are using to get into the EU. As a result, smugglers might divert their attention to Libya that is riven with divisions. After all, how could the EU create a Turkey-like agreement with Libya if there is not a reputable, sovereign government to negotiate with? The possibility of more migrants arriving from Libya is not far-fetched, especially because the winter storm season has passed in the Mediterranean. The UNHCR, the UN’s human rights arm, says that Libya currently has 100,000 migrants that are largely found on its Western coastline. Extempers should note, though, that many of these migrants are Africa and not Syrian or Iraqi. That could eventually change. Some militia groups are making millions smuggling people into Italy and some coastal towns are growing tired of migrants, demanding stronger government action to deal with the problem.
Lack of a Unity Government: Since 2014, Libya has been subsumed by a civil war between various militias that back the GNC and the HoR. Complicating this situation further is terrorist activity in the region, with groups such as ISIS trying to establish a beached in the country. The UN tried to solve this problem via the formation of the GNA, but the problem with this government is that it has to win the approval of powers from the HoR. As of the time of this brief, such powers had yet to be granted, although it appeared that some militia outfits, as well as the national oil company and the central bank pledged their allegiance to the GNA. A government that can settle Libya’s squabbles, which break down along Western and Eastern lines is important so that the nation’s security and economic problems can be confronted.
Militia Activity: Libya has traditionally had a very tribal culture. This mirrors some of the problems that the United States faced in Iraq after it invaded in 2003. Like Saddam Hussein, Gaddafi did a good job keeping these various tribal groups under control, but without a powerful central government these tribes have gone to war with each other. Militia groups have sided with the GNC and the HoR (and some now with the GNA) and created significant obstacles to national unification. For example, the HoR alleged that the GNC was too much under the control of Islamist militias and was too concerned with events taking place in Western Libya to the detriment of Libyans living in the eastern part of the country. Ideally, the new government would disarm these militia groups and possibly integrate them into a new Libyan army, but the problem is that the government lacks the power to do so. Some are calling upon the United States, the EU, or even UN peacekeepers to do this because they have more firepower at their disposal.
How to Fix Libya
Restoring Economic Growth: The GNA needs to take steps to strengthen the national economy, possibly moving to better protect the nation’s oil fields and overseeing the export and distribution of that resource. Oil production is less than 20% of the 1.6 million barrels per day that the country was capable of prior to the 2011 uprising against Gaddafi. Higher oil production figures would increase government revenue, thereby helping the government fight ISIS and militia groups that oppose it. Furthermore, the government can continue working with the UN to unlock the country’s sovereign wealth fund, which has also been frozen since 2011. If this happens, the Libyan government could access nearly $67 billion for reconstruction. To do that, though, the GNA will have to show that it can actually control the country. Nevertheless, a rebuilt economy might deter young men from joining ISIS or more radical militia outfits and would gradually help the government build a reputation for competence.
Sidelining Troublesome Political Rivals: It appears that al-Serraj is off to a good start as his arrival in Tripoli triggered the collapse of the rival GNC government. However, he must still find a way to deal with General Haftar, who has been critical of the GNA and the UN’s plans for a peace deal. al-Serraj might be able to overcome some of these difficulties by naming Haftar defense minister and putting more eastern Libyans into cabinet positions within the GNA. Some of these concessions might be painful, but a more inclusive government would reduce geographic tensions within the country. It would also allow the government to avoid petty squabbling and focus on the economic and security issues that are becoming more prevalent with each passing month.
Working With International Actors to Fight ISIS: Analysts disagree about whether ISIS currently constitutes an immediate threat to North Africa and the Libyan people, but it is alarming how it has doubled its presence in Libya over the past year. The U.S. has conducted a few airstrikes against ISIS leaders and camps, but a prolonged international fight against the group within Libya’s borders has not yet begun. U.S. President Barack Obama is reluctant to commit U.S. ground troops to the region, but Italy has proposed leading a training force to bolster the effectiveness of Libya’s security forces. The plan would call for Italy, France, Britain, and the United States to send 6,000 men to do this, but the GNA must approve of the idea. It is likely that such approval will be given since it could give Libyan troops valuable training. Approving the move may create Western pressure on the UN to end a five-year embargo on the country and allow for more weapons and equipment to arrive to help the GNA.
Working With the EU to Suppress Human Trafficking: The EU is moving forward with a plan called Phase 2B, which calls for the EU to work closely with Libyan officials to intercept migrants and those that smuggle them. The idea was created by British Prime Minister David Cameron, but it has created opposition from some that think it is too akin to Australia’s hardline interception policy in Southeast Asia. Implementing the plan will require the approval of the Libyan government, which is still suspicious of European interference due to Italy’s brutal colonization of the country during the twentieth century. Still, the lack of an adequate coast guard and growing public pressure will probably compel the GNA to accept European help to stop smugglers. Libya might even be able to finance security improvements through greater EU cooperation much like Turkey is attempting to do at present.
Sources
“Another Chance” (The Economist, April 9, 2016)
“British Libya Plan ‘Risks Becoming New Afghanistan” (UK Telegraph, April 10, 2016)
“Everyone Says the Libya Intervention Was a Failure. They’re Wrong.” (Vox, April 5, 2016)
“Islamic State Threat in Libya ‘Almost Exaggerated’ – For Now” (Voice of America, April 8, 2016)
“Key Countries Back Unity Government in Stabilizing Libya” (Al-Arabiya, April 8, 2016)
“Learning from Libya” (The Times of Oman, April 10, 2016)
“Libya: Can Unity Government Restore Stability” (BBC, April 4, 2016)
“Libya Faces Influx of Migrants Seeking New Routes to Europe” (The Guardian, April 9, 2016)
“Libya’s Tripoli Government to Step Down” (BBC, April 5, 2016)
“Obama Admits Worst Mistake of His Presidency” (CNN, April 10, 2016)
“Staff Evacuated From Shuttered Libyan Oil Fields Due to Militant Threat” (Reuters, April 10, 2016)
“The Obama Doctrine” (The Atlantic, April 2016)
“‘There Will Be Bloodshed if He Comes Here’” (Foreign Policy, April 8, 2016)
“Top General: ISIS Doubled Number of Fighters in Libya” (The Hill, April 7, 2016)