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An incident that many commentators had been fearing in Syria took place last week when Turkish forces shot down a Russian aircraft that allegedly violated Turkish airspace. The Russian plane was reportedly flying a mission to bomb rebel positions near the Turkish border, something that Russia has made a common occurrence since deciding several months ago to bolster its support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The Turkish government claimed that it warned the Russian aircraft before shooting it down, but Russia denies these claims. Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded an apology and has taken economic countermeasures against Turkey in response to the incident. Considering the fact that France is trying to get both nations to take part in an international coalition to fight the Islamic State, the Russian-Turkish incident illustrates how assembling such a coalition will prove difficult. After all, both nations support opposite sides in the Syrian Civil War. Also, the incident sparks questions about what the Western world should do if a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) finds itself in a military spat with Russia.
This topic brief will describe the origins of the tensions between Russia and Turkey; explain what measures Russia has taken against Turkey in response to the incident; and then elaborate on what Russian-Turkish tensions may mean for a future coalition against the Islamic State, the Syrian conflict, future ties between the countries, and NATO-Russian relations.
Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.
The Existing Tensions Between Russia and Turkey
Russia and Turkey have a long history of tensions that stretch back to the eighteenth century when Russia desired to have access to a warm water port. Doing so meant trying to win territory from the Ottoman Empire, which at the time was the “sick man of Europe” (so sick in fact that its continued existence as a territorial entity was owed to the fact that people feared someone else winning the spoils if it collapsed). The Crimean War in the 1850s was fought over these expansionist aims and during the First World War, Russia’s monarchy collapsed in part due to the inability of its Western allies to supply it via the Dardanelles and Bosphorus Strait. The 1915 British invasion of Gallipoli tried to solve this, but it only resulted in significant casualties and a damaged reputation for First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill. After the Second World War, Russian communists tried to overthrow Turkey’s government, but intervention by the United States through the Truman Doctrine, which pledged that the U.S. would support any nation facing communist attack, thwarted these aims. Turkey became a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the organization’s only Muslim member, and it served as a check on Russian military action. In fact, the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 was provoked partly by the stationing of American nuclear missiles in Turkey.
In modern times, Turkey and Russia do not see eye-to-eye on the Syrian Civil War. Since the war broke out several years ago, Turkey has sought the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. This is partly due to sectarian reasons as Syria is a Sunni Muslim-majority state, yet Assad and the leading Alawite sect that dominates it are Shi’ite. Turkey, as a Sunni Muslim nation, is seeking to aid rebel groups that wish to topple Assad and follow its preferred interpretation of the Islamic faith. This also serves Turkey’s regional interests as it squelches the ambitions of Iran to have an arch of Shi’ite-led states throughout the Middle East. In contrast, Russian President Vladimir Putin has favored backing Assad for several reasons. The first, as our previous topic brief on Russian intervention in Syria several months ago noted, Russia has a decades-long friendship with Syria and The Huffington Post explains on November 25 that Russia is currently Syria’s biggest arms supplier. Putin has argued that the international community cannot afford for Assad to fall, arguing that if that happens that terrorists will be further emboldened within the region. In recent months, Russia has stepped up its support for Assad by sending aircraft, military technology, and personnel to the conflict zone.
The current spat between Russia and Turkey is owed to the fact that a Russian aircraft was shot down during a mission that targeted alleged terrorists near Turkey’s border. The target of this bombing run was ethnic Turkmen, a minority group in Syria that Vox explains on November 24 are considered a favored group by the Turkish government. Vox notes that Turkey has used the Turkmen to challenge Kurdish interests in the Middle East in the past and it has recently filed claims at the United Nations that Russian attacks against them in Syria constitute a genocide. For its part, Russia claims that Turkey is not doing enough to stop the flow of militants across its borders into Syria and that it is attempting to shield some of those terrorists from attack. Most reports indicate that the downed Russian plane was in Turkish airspace for less than seventeen seconds, but there is a dispute over whether Turkey offered a warning to the Russian crew. Turkey has argued, with U.S. backing, that it warned the Russian pilots up to ten times before missiles were fired, but Russia disputes this claim, with one of the surviving crewman (the pilot was reportedly killed by rebels as he parachuted out of his aircraft) saying that no warning was given.
Some observers argue that Russia was asking for this incident to occur since it has reportedly violated Turkish airspace several times in the last month with aircraft or drones. Whereas Russia has been working out its bombing runs with United States Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, such cooperation does not exist with Turkey. The Toronto Star writes on November 29 that there are too many nations currently running exercises over Syrian airspace. For example, the United States, France, Canada, Arab nations, Russia, and Turkey are operating in the region and this overlap over a small space was always bound to lead to an accident or a downed aircraft eventually. The Toronto Star argues that newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is right to withdraw Canadian participation in the Syrian air mission due to the fact that the large number of actors operating there makes deadly mistakes more probable. Russia has also failed to make a strong case for its strikes doing a lot of good in the war on terrorism, with PBS writing on November 24 that 95% of Russia’s airstrikes have been against moderate rebel factions in Syria and not against the Islamic State, which is Russia’s primary reason for sending forces to Syria.
Putin sees some sinister motives in Turkey’s decision to shoot down a Russian aircraft, telling reporters that Turkey has stabbed his nation in the back and that it is actually backing Islamic terrorism in the region. Russian intelligence analysts have noted that Turkey is buying oil from the Islamic State, thereby keeping that group active and well-funded. The Asia Times explains on November 28 that Russia has tired of this behavior and is bound to launch an international campaign exposing Turkish collaboration with the Islamic State. According to Putin, Turkey shot down Russia’s plane because Russia was beginning to put pressure on the Islamic State’s underground oil traffic. And of course, Putin might believe that the plane was shot down because Russia is backing Assad in the conflict and Turkey would prefer it to leave the area.
The Russian Response to the Downed Aircraft
Putin acted very swiftly when dealing with the downing of the aircraft and the killing of one of its pilots. According to the BBC on November 27, this is uncharacteristic of Putin as he tends to deliberate on his responses to crises. For example, he withheld comments for two days after thirty people were killed by terrorists in Volgograd in December 2013 and he did the same for Metrojet Flight 9268, which was reportedly downed by Islamic State militants on October 31 over the Sinai Peninsula. It is uncertain why Putin was so swift to respond this time, although it may have been due to some of the geopolitical stakes involved and Putin not wanting to appear weak versus a country that is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Whatever the reason, Putin moved within twenty-four hours to change Russia’s security situation in Syria and impose economic sanctions on Turkey until an apology is delivered, something that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan refuses to do.
Shortly after the incident, Putin moved to strengthen air-defense systems in Latakia province, which is one of the centers of Russian operations in Syria. The Huffington Post writes that this air-defense system could allow Russian forces to shoot down Turkish planes. This does not mean that Russia is opting to go to war with Turkey. After all, doing so would pose the risks of a wider conflagration since Turkey in a NATO member, but it does show that Russia is aiming to make Turkish operations in Syria more difficult. Putin has also ordered the severing of Russian military contacts with Turkey.
Putin apparently wants to expose Turkey’s economic connections to the Islamic State, especially in oil. Remember, one of the reasons that Russia thinks Turkey shot down its airplane is because Russia was running operations that were meant to choke off the Islamic State’s traffic of illicit oil. Last Saturday, Putin signed a decree that authorizes some economic sanctions against Turkey. CNN reports on November 29 that these include the suspension of “visa-free” travel and a prohibition on charter transportation between the two countries. In addition, Putin has mandated that Russian travel agencies stop selling tours to Turkey. This is significant because millions of Russians visit Turkey each year, so it can make the Turkish government’s ability to generate foreign exchange from these trips more difficult. Furthermore, The Wall Street Journal points out on November 27 that Russian ports that export wheat to Turkey have been shut down. Turkey is the leading destination for Russian wheat, corn, sunflower oil, and sunflower meal products, with exports bringing in $1.5 billion in revenue for Russia last year. However, Putin did not impose energy sanctions on Turkey, which is arguably his biggest trump card. The Wall Street Journal writes on November 24 that Turkey imports 90% of its oil and natural gas supplies, with it relying on Russia for 50% of the latter product. Putin has used energy as a weapon before in disputes with Eastern European countries such as Ukraine, but he appears hesitant to do so here, probably because Russia needs the revenue due to Western sanctions that currently exist against it over the Ukrainian Civil War. Nevertheless, Bloomberg explains on November 25 that the rivalry between Turkey and Russia has already dented energy cooperation, with Russian natural gas company Gazprom announcing last month that it would cut the capacity of a planned pipeline meant to link Turkey to European markets by 50%. This was a stunning reversal for a project that Russia appeared hopeful for in an attempt to circumvent supplying Western Europe’s natural gas through Ukraine (some pundits always saw this as a scheme to reduce Western support for Ukraine because Russia could channel Western European gas supplies via Turkey and not produce ill-effects to Western European customers when it decides to shut off supplies to its former satellites in Eastern Europe).
Implications for the Future
One of the side effects of the Turkish-Russia spat may be that an international coalition against the Islamic State – something that French President Francois Hollande is attempting to put together – does not come to fruition. The Asia Times has accused Erdogan of trying to thwart the call for an international alliance, framing his attitude as one that is tolerant of Islamist activities if they work to bring down the Syrian government. It may also be hard to establish this coalition because President Barack Obama strongly backed Turkey in the dispute, with The San Francisco Chronicle writing on November 27 that President Obama argued that Turkey had the right to defend its airspace. President Obama has also blamed Russia for the incident, saying that it would not have happened if the Russian government was concentrating its efforts against the Islamic State and was not trying to bomb moderate rebels. This will hardly warm relations between Putin and Obama, who have rarely seen eye-to-eye in the diplomatic arena in recent years. Thus, Russia’s feeling of isolation, made worse by ongoing Western sanctions against it, may make it impossible to assembly a concerted coalition to defeat the Islamic State in the Middle East.
With regards to the Syrian conflict, it is not yet apparent that Russia will learn from the incident to better warn Turkey about its operations. In fact, Russia may decide that it is better off not informing the Turks because they may channel that information to the targets of Russian bombing missions. Putin does not appear willing to back down on his support for Assad either, since doing so would be cast as a retreat in the face of international pressure and that would weaken Putin’s image as a staunch nationalist within Russia (and Putin is very protective of his image). PBS raises the question of whether other Western nations, such as the United States, will work to impose a no-fly zone in parts of Syria if Russia does not get Assad to stop firing barrel bombs into civilian neighborhoods. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is one of the many presidential candidates that have called for the imposition of a no-fly zone, but as a prior topic brief on the Syrian conflict explained, a no-fly zone is only good insofar as the nation imposing it is willing to bring down enemy aircraft. For example, would the United States risk the downing of more Russian planes if those planes violated the no-fly zone? If the U.S. did so it could lead to World War III and a possible nuclear escalation. To do so over Syria appears maddening, but if Russia continues its aggressive maneuvers it could thwart Western attempts to impose more control over Syria’s airspace.
Although Russia has enacted some economic sanctions against Turkey, extempers should not get ahead of themselves and assume that a prolonged chill is about to set in with regards to relations between the two countries. First, the economic sanctions might do more damage to Russia than Turkey. After all, Russia is trying to find alternative markets for its goods since it is limited in its transactions with Western Europe. The Christian Science Monitor explains on November 29 that Turkey is Russia’s second-largest trading partner, so it makes sense for the Russians to maintain economic relations. The Bloomberg article previously cited notes that Russia earned $10 billion from natural gas sales to Turkey last year, so that constitutes ten billion reasons why the Russian government will probably not pursue increased economic countermeasures against Turkey. If anything, Putin’s quick response is likely an attempt to keep showing the Russian people that he is a staunch defender of the nation’s interests and is being proactive regarding the situation. However, Russia could try to undermine Turkey in more convert ways, especially when it comes to Kurdish political activism in the region. Turkey is working against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), both of which desire Kurdish autonomy. Kurds compose roughly 18% of the Turkish population and the Turkish government is concerned that one day these Kurds may try to secede. This is one of the reasons that Turkey was skittish about the Iraq War in 2003 as it did not want Iraq’s Northern Kurds to declare independence and try to get Turkish Kurds to align with their movement. As a response to the downing of the aircraft, Putin may try to channel more covert aid to these groups. This would give Russia plausible deniability if these groups struck at Turkey.
Finally, the incident between Turkey and Russia is a reminder that Cold War-era tensions between NATO and Russia are not over with. A few alarmed commentators feared that the incident, which marked the first time that a NATO member downed a Russian plane since 1952, could lead to a wider war. That is very unlikely to happen, but the incident shows how easily NATO’s collective security arrangement under Article V of its charter, whereby an attempt on one NATO member is deemed as an attack on all NATO members, can be tested. Putin has stepped up his aggression in Eastern Europe, possibly seeking to destabilize Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania as he did in Ukraine and this could put Western European nations in a bind. The populations of those nations do not favor a war with Russia over the Baltics, but if such an incident occurs and Article V is not followed, then that means that NATO’s collective security scheme is a sham. A similar situation could play out with regards to another incident between Russia and Turkey and indeed, one of the first steps that the Turkish government took after the downing of the Russian aircraft was to get into contact with NATO officials. According to Politico on November 27, the danger is ever present that a crisis could be triggered and then take on a life of its own, something that NATO does not always appear prepared to handle. Both sides, especially Russia and the U.S., are engaged in aggressive behavior at the moment, with Russia interdicting U.S. spy planes and flying into foreign airspace, while the U.S. has flown strategic bombers into the area. One of the fears is that one day there will be a miscalculation and that will plunge the world into another global conflict. Therefore, extempers should never cease to consider the NATO element in any future altercation between Turkey and Russia.
Overall, the state of Russian-Turkish relations illustrates the complexity of the Syrian Civil War. With so many different international actors present in the area, the risk always exists that the conflict will become wider and evolve into something completely out of proportion to what takes place between Assad and those who oppose him. It appears as if the current situation between Russia and Turkey will fizzle out, but it is a dangerous reminder to the world that the Syrian conflict is just as much of a threat to global security as it is to the tranquility of the Middle East.