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The National Speech and Debate Association (NSDA) has just released the names of the thirty competitors who will advance to the third day of competition in International and United States Extemp. By tomorrow evening this number will be reduced to six in each event and we will know what the 2015 NSDA final rounds will look like.
A few notable names were eliminated in the octo-final round of International Extemp. Davis Larkin of the Parish Episcopal School (TX), Andrew Langford of Lake Highland Preparatory (FL), and Vinesh Kannan of the Illinois Math and Science Academy (IL), all of whom are ranked in the top twenty-five of the National Points Race, were knocked out the tournament. Kannan and Larkin had finished second and third, respectively, at the Extemp TOC last month.
United States Extemp was largely immune from seeing big names fall with the exception of Jacob Levenson of Nova Senior High School (FL), who is ranked twenty-fourth in the National Points Race.
The advancement of National Points Race leader Justin Graham of Trinity Preparatory School (FL) to tomorrow’s quarter-final rounds means that Phoebe Lin of Plano West Senior High School (TX) and Noah Wexler of Nova are mathematically eliminated from the competition. Graham’s advancement also constrains some of the mathematical odds for other competitors. If Graham were to drop before round eleven tomorrow, Brian Anderson of LaRue County High School (KY) would need to get into the IX final round to overtake him, while Josh Wartel of Lake Braddock Secondary School (VA) would need to finish in the top two of USX or finish third and win the final round to do so. Eitan Sapiro-Gheiler of Durham Academy (NC) would also have to win IX or finish second and win the final round to have a chance and Yijia Liang of Upper Arlington High School OH), whose chances of a “double crown” remain alive, would have to accomplish that feat or finish second in IX and win the final round. There is still a lot of mathematical complexity surrounding how the National Points Race could turn out and more detailed scenarios will be given once Friday’s final rounds are revealed.
In total, twenty-one of the fifty-one underclassmen that broke to octo-finals made it to the quarter-final round. Any underclassmen, who are denoted in blue below, who reach the semi-finals tomorrow afternoon will automatically qualify to the 2016 NSDA National Tournament and earn an automatic berth in the 2016 University of Kentucky Tournament of Champions (TOC). All of the underclassmen competitors who qualified for the quarter-finals also earn a leg to the 2016 Extemp TOC at Northwestern University.