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Although the Scottish independence referendum failed last week, the cloud of secession still looms over Europe. Catalonia, a region located in Northeastern Spain, is pushing for an independence referendum. Catalans view their culture as separate from that of the larger Spanish state and the country’s economic problems have led growing numbers of Catalans to conclude that they would be better off if they went their own way. A day after the Scottish independence referendum failed, Catalonia’s regional parliament authorized Catalan President Artur Mas to call a “consultation” (a fancy name for a referendum) on independence. The Spanish government, headed by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, says that a Catalan independence vote would violate the Spanish Constitution and they have vowed a legal challenge to the measure. Since the Catalan secession issue might drag out for the remainder of the year, extempers should be prepared to talk about the subject at tournaments.
This topic brief will provide some background on the Catalan independence movement, cover recent events driving the push for a referendum, and discuss some scenarios for where the Catalan independence movement might go in the aftermath of the Scottish failure to secure independence.
Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.
The Catalan Independence Movement
Spain suffers from a host of independence movements as certain regions, such as the Basque Country, have historical grievances against the Spanish government. Spain was not a unified political entity until the end of the fifteenth century and that unity was brought about through military conquest. In the seventeenth century, Catalonia aligned itself with France against Spanish interests, but the War of Spanish Succession (1701-1714) produced a suppression of Catalan customs and political culture. The Spanish takeover of Catalonia in that conflict occurred on September 11, 1714, a date which is now celebrated as Catalan National Day. Foreign Affairs on September 11 writes that in 1931, Catalonia acquired autonomy when republican forces took over the Spanish government. However, this autonomy was short-lived as the Spanish Civil War intervened five years later. The winner of that war, General Francisco Franco, cracked down on the celebration of Catalan culture and brought the region back under the control of authorities in Madrid. After Franco’s death in 1975, the Spanish government gave Catalans more control over their region’s culture, language, and education, but tensions re-emerged in 2010 when the Spanish Constitutional Court annulled large parts of the 2006 Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia, which gave the region greater self-rule over legal, language, immigration, and tax issues. The Green Europe Journal on September 18 writes that although Catalonia currently possesses legislative, police, and health powers, it cannot raise taxes or alter Spanish foreign policy. The lack of these powers is one of the driving forces behind the independence movement.
So why are Catalans seeking independence in the first place? The issue boils down to the current state of the Spanish economy and how some of the region’s residents view their area as culturally separate from that of the larger Spanish state. The Spain Report on September 17 reveals that Catalonia is 19% of Spain’s gross domestic product (GDP) and is the source of 26% of the country’s exports. The Economist on August 23 points out that Catalans resent having their region’s revenue diverted to areas of Southern Spain, which are poorer. This is reminiscent of economic tensions in Italy, where northern regions are more prosperous than their southern counterparts. The 2008 global financial crisis did a number on the Spanish economy and produced the worst recession since the country became a parliamentary democracy. For example, Bloomberg on September 15 reveals that Spanish housing prices have fallen by 40% and at the height of the economic crisis unemployment reached 26%. The Spanish economy is the fifth-largest in Europe and its problems have contributed to the eurozone economic crisis. With analysts expecting the Spanish economy to slowly recover over the next few years, a growing number of Catalans believe that their prosperous region would be better off without subsidizing Spain’s poorer areas.
Still, extempers should be aware that although there is a strong push for an independence referendum, it is not yet clear that a majority of Catalans would support being independent from Spain. The New York Post on September 19 writes that 80% of Catalans want to get a say in whether they remain attached to Spain. The Foreign Affairs article cited earlier reveals that 50% of Catalans favor independence with 30% opposing, but other polls reach different conclusions. The Washington Post on September 12 says that the 55% of Catalans want independence, whereas Newsweek on September 11 argues that only 45% of Catalans want full independence. Making the situation more complicated, some Catalans favor more autonomy or a federal state instead of the region becoming an independent nation. For example, Newsweek points out that 20% of Catalans favor a federal state where Catalonia would enjoy a series of larger, more defined powers separate from the Spanish government while still remaining part of the country. An additional 23% favor Catalonia as an autonomous region that possesses greater legislative rights in terms of justice and economic policy. It must also be said that when pollsters ask respondents whether they would favor an independent Catalonia that would not have European Union (EU) membership, the level of support drops significantly. Therefore, Catalans are significantly divided over how they envision the future of their region, although they largely agree that there should be a vote on independence.
Catalan demands for more power mirror the growing demands of other European regions. Business Week on September 17 likens the demands of Catalans and Scots to a “re-explosion of the idea of self-determination” that is part of Enlightenment thought. The National Post of Canada on September 19 writes that other independence movements beyond Scotland are currently engulfing Europe: Basques in Northern Spain, Corsicans in France, Venetians in Italy, and Flemish speakers in Belgium. Catalan independence forces hoped that the Scottish referendum would succeed and thereby pave the way for their own movement, but the failure of that vote means that Catalans will have to create their own path.
Scheduling an Independence Vote
A large number of Catalans expressed their desire for a vote on Catalan National Day two weeks ago. An estimated 1.8 million demonstrators assembled in Barcelona to demand a referendum (the Spanish government says that the number was actually a little more than 500,000). For a region with 7.6 million people, that is an impressive accomplishment. The EU Observer on September 12 writes that demonstrators are motivated not merely by economic factors, but national education reforms coming from Madrid. These reforms have the potential to reduce the use of the Catalan language in Catalonia’s schools. Catalan independence supporters visited Scotland prior to its referendum and have adopted the “V” as a campaign symbol, which stands for “vote.”
A day after the Scottish independence referendum failed, the Catalan regional parliament by a vote of 106-28 granted Catalan President Artur Mas the power to schedule an independence vote. November 9 has been chosen as the day of the referendum. Mas’s party, the CiU, a federation of the Democratic Catalan Covergence (CDC) and the Democratic Union of Catalonia (UDC), is the largest group in the Catalan parliament. CDC is ambiguous on the independence question, but Mas has apparently staked his government’s future on securing an independence vote. The second-largest party is the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), which favors independence from Spain. After the 2012 parliamentary elections, Mas’s CiU and the ERC entered into a coalition agreement to govern the region. This has created some political complications because if Mas were to back down on holding a referendum, the ERC could split from the coalition and thereby force new elections to be held.
Mas is expected to call for an independence vote, but the Spanish government argues that such a vote is illegal. The Los Angeles Times writes on September 19 that the 1978 Spanish Constitution states that the country is “indivisible.” The Foreign Affairs article cited earlier points out that Articles 92 and 150.2 of the constitution do not allow regions to hold their own referendums. Instead, votes must be put to the entire Spanish population. One of the arguments made by Spain’s governing People’s Party, which is conservative, is that Catalonia’s fate is something that affects the entire country. As a result, all of Spain’s citizens should be able to dictate the fate of the region. It is very likely that Spain’s Constitutional Court will be called upon by Madrid to find a Catalan independence referendum as unconstitutional.
There are several reasons why the Spanish government does not want Catalonia to become independent. First, the BBC points out on September 19 that Catalonia’s secession would create economic turmoil since Catalonia is one of the country’s richest and most industrialized regions. The Spain Report from September 17 writes that the American Chamber of Commerce in Spain has warned that foreign direct investment is at risk due to the secession fears, with millions of dollars allegedly on hold. For a country that is trying to pull itself back from the brink of economic disaster, this is not good news. Another reason for the Spanish government to resist Catalan secession is that it might give more inspiration to the Basque Country to secede. This territory, located near the Pyrenees between France and Spain, received autonomy in 1978, but there are groups that wish for Basque independence. The terrorist organization ETA is a violent wing of this movement. Therefore, to avoid fragmentation and economic chaos, Spain’s leaders do not wish to encourage Catalan independence forces by permitting a referendum. This is different from Scotland where British Prime Minister David Cameron agreed to let Scots determine their fate.
The Road to Independence
There are some interesting scenarios that could unfold over the next few months regarding Catalan independence. The first scenario sees President Mas announce the referendum and Spain’s Constitutional Court declare it illegal. At this point, Mas proceeds to go forward with the referendum and the Spanish government goes into crackdown mode. The Spain Report on September 16 notes that Spain’s Director of Public Prosecutions, Eduardo Torres Dulce, has warned that Spain could arrest and charge Catalan politicians encouraging independence with contempt or sedition. The article goes on to reveal that Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution permits the central government, with a majority vote of parliament, to force Spain’s regions to comply with central government orders if they ignore the constitution. So basically, if Catalan politicians proceed with a referendum after it is ruled unconstitutional they could face arrest. It is also possible that Madrid could suspend Catalonia’s regional government altogether. However, these policies would likely backfire on the Spanish government. It would raise the ire of other European countries, generate more sympathy for the Catalans seeking independence, and might alienate moderate Catalans that prefer to remain with Spain.
Another scenario proceeds similarly to the first in that Mas calls the referendum and Spain’s Constitutional Court declares it illegal. Instead of going forward with the referendum, though, Mas proceeds to call a new parliamentary election and puts the question of independence at its core. This means that he would wed his CiU federation to holding an independence vote. In this situation, the CiU’s coalition partner, the ERC, would probably support independence as well. If voters returned the CiU and ERC to power in sufficient numbers, it would confirm that Catalans want an independence referendum. This might pressure Rajoy’s government to grant one. Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond followed this strategy in 2011 when his Scottish National Party campaigned on holding an independence vote and increased its share of seats in the Scottish parliament. This option carries risks for Mas, though, because the CiU lost seats in the 2012 Catalan parliamentary elections and political observers believe that in a new election the ERC would win the largest share of the vote. This means that Mas could sign his own political death warrant by calling for new elections, but he might sign it by not calling for new elections because The Economist writes on September 19 that if Mas backs down in challenging Madrid that the ERC might desert his coalition and force new elections anyway.
A final scenario, which might be the most likely to occur, both sides decide to defer the independence question until next year when the country will hold general, regional, and local elections. This would allow Rajoy and Mas to assess their political positions relative to reach other. As The Economist on September 19 explains, if Rajoy’s government loses seats in the Spanish parliament that might give Catalonia more leverage over how he handles their region. Similarly, if parties favoring an independence vote do well in Catalan elections that would be a signal to the Spanish government that it cannot continue to ignore the desire for a vote. Of course, the opposite could be true as well because if Rajoy’s government made resisting Catalan independence a major issue and increased its representation in parliament that could make it dig in its heels on the independence question.
In the end, the possibilities that could come from a Catalan bid for independence are interesting. What Spain calls its “sovereignty challenge” could distract its government from solving the country’s pressing economic problems and inflame cultural tensions, especially if it cracks down on independence leaders. With Scotland failing to become independent, it may be up to Catalonia to lead the way for the continent’s dissident regions.