Overview

Since the dropping of two nuclear weapons on Japan, and the subsequent Soviet push to develop nuclear weapon, the countries who have nuclear capabilities has been one of the foremost concerns of the international community.  So when Iran started enriching uranium, the international community got a little bit worried.  When Iran refused to cooperate with the IAEA – they got a little bit angry.  However, three UN sanctions later, little has changed with the IAEA condemning the lack of Iranian cooperation on March 27th of this year.  Since a country (Iran) that has promised to destroy another that already has nuclear weapons (Israel) may or may not be developing nuclear weapon is kind of a big deal. Oh, and because confirmation of such a nuclear program could justify Israeli/US attacks on Iran, let’s take a look at what is going on and what that means for the world.


Key Terms and Figures

IAEA:  The International Atomic Energy Association is a subsection of the United Nations specifically geared towards the peaceful use of nuclear materials.  Currently, its inspectors and lab technicians are working with Iran to ensure that all nuclear activity in that nation is directed towards power development rather than weapons.  Their reports often dictate the repose of the West.  On March 27th the IAEA reported that Iran had continued to defy the requests of inspectors who were seeking to judge the extent of past Iranian nuclear programs.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad:  President of Iran. He is known for his decidedly anti-Western and anti-Israeli stances and has vowed to wipe Israel off of the map.  While the opposition has begun to make a political upswing in Iran, Ahmadinejad still has the majority of the power.  He is thought to be the primary force pushing Iranian influence in Iraq and Syria.

Ali Larijani: New speaker of the Iranian parliament.  He was a former lead nuclear negotiator and a prominent conservative.  His political rise suggests a swing away from Ahmadinejad’s control.  He ran against Ahmadinejad for president in 2005.  His experience as a nuclear negotiator makes him stand in staunch opposition to Ahmadinejad, as he believes the president’s stance undermines the potential for genuine progress in the development of peaceful energy and positive international relations.

Major Issues

Iran/Israel: The most troubling issue that rises over further allegations of a lack of Iranian cooperation with the IAEA is the fact that it will further antagonize – and provoke – Israel.  Between the threats offered by Ahmadinejad and Iran’s continued support of Hamas, Hezbollah and other anti Israeli organizations, Israel has little reason to love Iran.  Because of this, Israel has often promised a decisive first strike if it thought that Iran was close to having a nuclear weapon.  Consequently, many hardliners within Israel will see the lack of Iranian cooperation regarding past efforts as evidence that Iran is up to no good.  Such fears will have a two-fold effect:  first, they certainly increase the propensity of some form of Israeli military or espionage missions (which could easily escalate into a broader conflict; second – and much more probable and immediate – is that such news will increase support for the more hawkish elements of Israeli politics.  By further emboldening the more conservative and paranoid wings of Israel’s politics these developments threaten not only to further erode relations between Israel and Iran but also will give the hardliners more leverage in their efforts to be more aggressive with Fatah and Hamas–a move that will certainly undermine efforts at regional peace.

Iran and the UN:  While the UN has taken mild steps to condemn Iranian nuclear ambitions, including three different sets of sanctions, the organization has been largely ineffective in reigning in the rogue nation.  The lack of UN efficacy has been largely because China has large energy interests in Iran, meaning that they have come to their defense any time more serious action has been proposed.

Iran/US:  The second way that a negative report on Iran by the IAEA is troubling is because it will certainly increase calls in the US for a more hard-line stance on Iran.  In many ways, Iran is the one piece of Bush international policy that has yet to be resolved.  Iraq has been invaded, North Korea has succumbed to joint Chinese and US pressure, but Iran remains just as strong as always.  As long as China continues to prevent the UN from taking a more hard-line stance, the US will see itself as the primary actor to keep Iran in check.  Therefore, continued pressure from the US is likely towards Iran.  Furthermore, such Iranian defiance will show up in American domestic politics, especially with Obama promising more engagement and McCain promising a hard-line approach.   Consequently, continued Iranian defiance will also embolden hard-line attitudes in the US, which may help McCain come November (assuming Bush doesn’t use his status as a lame duck to order an invasion).

Sample Questions

How real of a threat is an Iranian Nuclear program?
Is the IAEA being too alarmist about Iran?
Will continued Iranian nuclear ambitions force an Israeli response?
How should the US respond to the IAEA report on Iran?
What can the international community do to convince China to lessen its support of Iran?