Category: Topic Brief Page 13 of 16

Topic Brief: The U.S. Auto Industry

Extempers have been busy over the last several months trying to understand the different elements of the current financial crisis.  In the midst of understanding credit markets, bond markets, the $700 billion U.S. bailout package, and deteriorating housing market, it was easy to ignore the problems of one of the most crucial industries of the U.S. economy:  the auto market.  Within the last several weeks, the problems of the auto industry’s “Big Three”, General Motors (GM), Chrysler, and Ford have become dire, as the auto companies say they have spent most of the $15 billion they held in reserve during the third quarter.  Faced with slumping sales at home and in the midst of restructuring their operations, GM has warned that without government aid it will not be able to make it through the year and Ford has warned that it will not last long into 2009 without government aid.

Faced with this situation, and a lame duck session of Congress, as well as for President Bush, you have the recipe for a tense political battle that will have ramifications far into the future.  You also have the stage set for what will be the last major battle of the Bush presidency, and one that could make President Bush even more unpopular before he leaves office.

This brief will give a summary of the current woes facing the automakers, the different solutions proposed by each side, and ramifications for the eventual solutions that could be prescribed for the auto industry’s woes.

Topic Brief: 2008 Presidential Election Recap

topicbriefby Logan Scisco

The 2008 elections, an election cycle some extempers have been speaking about for the last two and a half years has finally come to a close.  The election result, unlike 2000 and 2004, was announced at the end of evening, with Senator Barack Obama of Illinois becoming the first African-American to be elected as the President of the United States.  Obama won the election by a large margin in the Electoral College, at last count 365 to Senator John McCain’s 162, and also won a commanding margin of the popular vote, 52% to 46% (independent candidate Ralph Nader won 1% of the vote).  Obama’s share of the popular vote was the first time a Democratic candidate has won over 50% of the popular vote since Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford in 1976.

Obama’s victory was accompanied by Democratic triumphs in Congressional races across the country.  In the House of Representatives, Democrats expanded their majority by twenty seats and in the Senate, the Democrats added to their majority by six seats, with three races in Georgia, Minnesota, and Alaska being subject to recounts, absentee ballot counts, or runoffs.  If the Democrats win all three of those contested races they would have a 60 vote, filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, which would be intact for the first two years of an Obama administration.

This topic brief will give a brief analysis of why Obama managed to win, why McCain lost the election, and where the Republican Party goes from here for the 2012 elections.

Topic Brief: 2008 Presidential Election Recap

The 2008 elections, an election cycle some extempers have been speaking about for the last two and a half years has finally come to a close.  The election result, unlike 2000 and 2004, was announced at the end of evening, with Senator Barack Obama of Illinois becoming the first African-American to be elected as the President of the United States.  Obama won the election by a large margin in the Electoral College, at last count 365 to Senator John McCain’s 162, and also won a commanding margin of the popular vote, 52% to 46% (independent candidate Ralph Nader won 1% of the vote).  Obama’s share of the popular vote was the first time a Democratic candidate has won over 50% of the popular vote since Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford in 1976.

Obama’s victory was accompanied by Democratic triumphs in Congressional races across the country.  In the House of Representatives, Democrats expanded their majority by twenty seats and in the Senate, the Democrats added to their majority by six seats, with three races in Georgia, Minnesota, and Alaska being subject to recounts, absentee ballot counts, or runoffs.  If the Democrats win all three of those contested races they would have a 60 vote, filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, which would be intact for the first two years of an Obama administration.

This topic brief will give a brief analysis of why Obama managed to win, why McCain lost the election, and where the Republican Party goes from here for the 2012 elections.

Topic Brief: Six Days to Go: A Countdown to the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

Background

There is no doubt that any extemper worth their mettle will be watching the election returns on November 4th and already begin thinking of the many questions they will receive about the next presidential administration, the fallout from the election, the legacy of George W. Bush that was reflected in the election, and why the candidate who ends up losing ended up doing so.  This is also the very last week for competitors to receive questions they have been receiving since the 2004 election ended which asked “Who will win the 2008 presidential election?”  That question will be resolved, barring another Florida/Ohio scenario, on Tuesday evening.

Due to the fact that this is the last week extempers could receive a question on the 2008 presidential candidates, I felt that it was timely to write this brief.  In two weeks I will break down the 2008 presidential election results (as well as Congressional results) and offer some additional analysis for extempers to ponder.

This brief will focus primarily on the presidential contest between Illinois Senator Barack Obama and Arizona Senator John McCain, but will focus briefly at the end about the odds of the Democrats achieving a filibuster-proof majority in the United States Senate.

Topic Brief: 2008 Canadian Elections

Background

With most extempers worried about how the U.S. elections are going to turn out , many might have missed the news about the Canadian elections that happened last Tuesday.  The Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper, the leader of the Conservative Party, called the elections in the hopes that he could lead his party to a majority of seats in the Canadian parliament.  The Conservative Party had ruled the country for the last 32 months, but had done so from minority status, which makes it difficult to survive votes of no confidence and pass budget and other procedural matters.

Building majority governments has grown difficult in Canada where a parliamentary system that does not use proportional representation has grown skewed because the country has seen a political shift from a two party structure to a five party structure.  Harper’s Conservative Party is part of this political shift, created in 2003 in a merger between the Progressive Conservative Party and the Canadian Alliance.

Topic Brief: Syria and Iran as Agents of Change in the Middle East

topicbriefBy Omar Qureshi

The Middle East has long been an area of major misunderstanding for the west. Whether it is the volatile nature of popular will in Iran or the legacy politics in Syria there doesn’t seem to be a clear, general regional trend. The challenge of this understanding has led to many different foreign policy approaches towards the region as a whole. Regardless of whether it has been Clinton’s “aesthetic peace policy” or the much more expansive “Bush Doctrine” of preemptive war, these policies are specifically developed for the Middle East. Moreover, these policies have embraced the 1975 idea of Pax Syriana. This term literally means “Syrian peace,” but international relations theorists have taken it to mean the attempted reshaping of the Middle East to the desires of major actors. Clinton wanted peace- or at least the appearance of peace and George W. Bush wants to develop strategic alliances backed by hard power- a move that has substantially disenfranchised the Middle East on the whole. The preeminent actors in the Middle East today are Syria and Iran.

Topic Brief: South African Politics

topicbriefBy Logan Scisco

Background

Over the last several weeks, international extempers have most likely read about the recent political developments in South Africa, arguably the strongest power on the African continent.  For those extempers that have not had a chance to catch up on these developments, Thabo Mbeki is no longer president of the country.  After a prolonged political struggle between Jacob Zuma, who was Mr. Mbeki’s deputy president (a position most akin to vice-president in the United States) and who deposed Mr. Mbeki as leader of the African National Congress (ANC) in December, it appears that Mr. Zuma has won.  This victory came within the span of a month when Mr. Zuma was first acquitted of fraud and corruption charges based on a judicial technicality.  The National Prosecuting Authority (NPA), the body of the South African judiciary who initiates criminal cases for the government, was said in the dismissal of the charges to have been influenced in its prosecution by Mr. Mbeki and his supporters.  This finding by the judge overseeing Mr. Zuma’s case gave weight to charges, long echoed by Mr. Zuma’s supporters, that Mr. Mbeki has been an overzealous president who has been intolerant of political opposition and that Mr. Mbeki has been willing to use the instruments of the state to clamp down on this dissent.  On September 20th, the ANC decided that Mr. Mbeki should resign his post in order to end the political struggle that has gripped the country for three years.

Having set the background, this brief will give an overview of the structure and history of South Africa’s political system, the current state of the government, and what challenges that government faces in the future.

Topic Brief: Somalia (2008)

Background

With the seizure two weeks ago of the MV Faina, a Ukrainian freighter, by Somali pirates in the Gulf of Aden, the world and its press have suddenly rediscovered the problems that exist in Somalia.  Piracy off of Somalia’s waters is hardly a new phenomenon and is increasing on a yearly basis, with the international community too divided or apathetic to achieve a joint solution to the problem.  What makes the seizure of the MV Faina important was that according to The Economist on October 4, 2008, the Faina had been equipped with anti-aircraft guns, grenade launchers, light weaponry, and 33 T-72 Russian tanks.  Analysts fear that the pirates may have been able to ship much of the lighter weaponry to their allies in Somalia, although the chances of them being able to use the bigger weapons on board are slim.  The seizure also has geopolitical implications in Africa, as the tanks on board were supposedly bound for southern Sudan, which is watching the clock and waiting for an opportunity to declare independence from Muslim-dominated northern Sudan in 2011.

Over the last two decades, Somali has had a very turbulent history, racked by civil wars and clan violence.  Experienced extempers might note that they have had to focus on Somali before, when Ethiopia invaded the country to crush Islamic rebels in 2006.  Today, extempers will need to focus on Somalia because the worsening political situation in the country has ramifications for the east Africa region as well as for the war on terrorism in the United States.  Furthermore, the topic of Somali piracy is sure to emerge in question sets over the next month due to the fact that the world is trying to clamp down on surging pirate attacks, which threaten commerce in the Gulf of Aden, which has ten percent of the world’s shipping.

This brief will seek to provide extempers with some historical background about Somalia as well as briefly discuss several of the problems the country faces in the near future.

Topic Brief: South African Politics (2008)

Background

Over the last several weeks, international extempers have most likely read about the recent political developments in South Africa, arguably the strongest power on the African continent.  For those extempers that have not had a chance to catch up on these developments, Thabo Mbeki is no longer president of the country.  After a prolonged political struggle between Jacob Zuma, who was Mr. Mbeki’s deputy president (a position most akin to vice-president in the United States) and who deposed Mr. Mbeki as leader of the African National Congress (ANC) in December, it appears that Mr. Zuma has won.  This victory came within the span of a month when Mr. Zuma was first acquitted of fraud and corruption charges based on a judicial technicality.  The National Prosecuting Authority (NPA), the body of the South African judiciary who initiates criminal cases for the government, was said in the dismissal of the charges to have been influenced in its prosecution by Mr. Mbeki and his supporters.  This finding by the judge overseeing Mr. Zuma’s case gave weight to charges, long echoed by Mr. Zuma’s supporters that Mr. Mbeki has been an overzealous president who has been intolerant of political opposition and that Mr. Mbeki has been willing to use the instruments of the state to clamp down on this dissent.  On September 20th, the ANC decided that Mr. Mbeki should resign his post in order to end the political struggle that has gripped the country for three years.

Having set the background, this brief will give an overview of the structure and history of South Africa’s political system, the current state of the government, and what challenges that government faces in the future.

Topic Brief: Zimbabwe Unity Government

Overview

President Robert Mugabe and his main rival agreed to divide control of the police and army and strike a delicate balance in Zimbabwe’s Cabinet — but their power-sharing deal will be under enormous pressure from long-simmering differences and economic collapse. Some members of opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai’s party have already complained that the compromise didn’t do enough to sideline Mugabe.  Western nations poised to send in sorely needed aid and investment also are wary of the man accused of holding onto power through violence and fraud and ruining the economy of what had been southern Africa’s breadbasket.

Topic Brief: The Great Bailout

Overview

Wall Street has been on a roller coaster ride over the last few weeks so wild that it would make any Six Flags amusement park jealous.  The salvaging of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac earlier this month was only the first in several steps enacted in hopes of stabilizing the U.S. economy in hopes of staving off a total collapse of the financial sector.  This week, Congress will debate a $700 billion dollar package meant to shore up the rest of the industry.  That sum is most certainly more than pocket money.  The cost of the war in Iraq to date.  12 Bill Gateses.  $2300 for every American citizen.  Any way you write the check, the additional sum would once again raise the national debt to staggering heights.  Thus, the great financial bailout of 2008 is certainly worthy of our analysis.

Topic Brief: Public Opinion

topicbriefby Michael Garson

(Author’s Note: Some of the ideas, facts, and vignettes offered in this story are derived from a course taught by Dennis Chong at Northwestern University in the Spring of 2008. Most of the content is also lifted from a lecture given by Michael Garson for the National High School Institute in the Summer of 2008.)

Hopefully this isn’t news to any readers, but you won’t be seeing a Public Opinion round at a major tournament anytime soon. Further, you are unlikely to get “What is public opinion?” in any round. Unlike the overwhelming majority of topic-based articles, this one flies under the radar. However, I would argue in my boundless sense of self-importance that public opinion is as, if not more, important as any other issue. Understanding HOW and WHY public policy is devised and implemented is highly significant. Many extempers have little difficulty explaining why a particular policy is the most effective.  Yet is only the select few (like you, who is reading this article!) can understand how and if that policy can be enacted. Great ideas that are political impossible will never come to fruition. That is the beauty of understanding public opinion: it is one of the most abstract issues but has the most pragmatic and concrete of uses.

Topic Brief: Russia’s Foreign Policy

topicbriefBy Sebastian Pyrek

Recent events in the Georgian breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, with a special focus on the Russian involvement in the former republic, are strong evidence that Russia is undergoing another resurgence on the international stage. Nearly two decades have passed since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, but there is a strong nationalistic spirit that never fell has returned to power; spearheaded by former President and current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin this movement has allowed the Russian phoenix to rise from the ashes of the USSR and regain its power on the international stage. Russia’s involvement in Ukrainian and Belarusian politics, Estonian and Georgian post-soviet sovereignty, and international energy markets (to name a few) shows that Russia’s intentions are egocentric at best. Russia‘s recent posturing indicates that its leadership rejects the idea that the international community should be monopolar with the USA in power.[1]

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