Tag: international extemp Page 3 of 6

Europe’s Migrant Crisis

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Extempers are aware of the United States’ illegal immigration problems, but another illegal immigration phenomenon has recently caught the attention of the international media:  the travel of migrants from North Africa to Europe.  While the migration of peoples from Africa and the Middle East to Europe is not a new phenomenon, growing border controls by nations within the European Union (EU) over the last decade has caused migrants to brave the waters of the Mediterranean Sea.  Seeking refuge from political or religious persecution or a better economic future, migrants pay smugglers to take them to Southern European countries, which have argued that the EU is not doing enough to help them offset the cost of dealing with the problem.  2015 has already been a deadly year for migrants crossing the Mediterranean as 1,800 people have died making the journey compared with just 180 deaths in the first four months of 2014.  On April 19, 900 migrants were thought to have been killed when their overcrowded vessel sank, prompting the EU to hold an emergency meeting in Luxembourg and triple the funding for border operations.  Dealing with immigration is a sensitive issue in European countries, where far-right parties have linked excessive immigration with economic problems and claim that the different cultural backgrounds of migrants will erode the foundations of European society.  Therefore, the problem is a test of the EU’s tolerance of helping the world’s less fortunate and its ability to work out an effective immigration system for its member states.

This topic brief will explain the causes of the recent migrant wave, discuss why deaths on the Mediterranean have risen this year, and then provide some possible solutions European governments can pursue to end the migrant crisis.

Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.

Nigeria’s Presidential Election (2015)

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Last week saw Nigerian voters head to the polls to decide whether President Goodluck Jonathan deserved another term in office.  Jonathan, who took office in 2010 following the death of President Umaru Yar’Adua, was reeling from accusations of economic mismanagement and an inability to squelch the Boko Haram insurgency in the Nigerian northeast.  Observers predicted a tense poll that could result in violence.  After all, the 2011 election that Jonathan won over his challenger in this year’s race, Muhammadu Buhari, ended in riots that killed 1,000 people.  However, Nigeria defied these dour predictions and more than forty million voters turned out to give Buhari a sizable margin of victory.  The election marked the first time in Nigerian history that an incumbent president was defeated and optimists hope that the country, the most populous in Africa, can become a model for others on the continent.  To do that, though, Buhari will have to find a way to permanently squelch Boko Haram and fix corruption issues that have plagued Nigeria for much of its post-colonial history.

This topic brief will provide an overview of the major issues that emerged during the Nigerian presidential election, discuss the reasons Buhari won, and then assess his prospects of making Nigeria a more prosperous nation.

Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.

Nicaragua’s Grand Canal

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In the nineteenth century Western policymakers became enamored with the idea of establishing a canal across Central America.  While extempers are aware of today’s Panama Canal, which was constructed by United States between 1904 and 1914, Nicaragua was actually the first choice for a Central American canal project that would link the Caribbean and the Pacific Ocean, thereby reducing shipping times and costs.  When the United States chose to build a canal through Panama it abandoned the idea of a Nicaraguan canal entirely, but the project has been revived by the Nicaraguan government and Chinese telecommunications tycoon Wang Jing.  Two years ago, the Nicaraguan National Assembly granted a canal concession to Mr. Wang’s Hong Kong Canal Development Group (HKND), who will operate the canal for one hundred years, with the Nicaraguan government achieving a majority stake in the canal after fifty years.  The project will cost an estimated $50 billion and is supposed to be completed within the next five years.  However, opposition is growing from indigenous communities, environmental activists, and Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega’s political opponents.  There are also questions about whether the canal project is feasible and some engineers wonder whether the Grand Canal will eventually become a “grand mistake.”

This topic brief will provide some background on the existing Grand Canal project, highlight the Nicaraguan government’s case for why the canal needs to be built, and then discuss criticisms of the project.

Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.

U.S.-Iranian Relations (2015)

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When he was elected in 2008, President Barack Obama went to great lengths to convince voters and the rest of the world that he would not continue many of the foreign policies of George W. Bush.  Bush’s presidency is most remembered for the war in Iraq, a campaign that cost thousands of American lives and destabilized the Middle East.  However, while the war in Iraq dominated the headlines, the prospects of a nuclear Iran also loomed over the region.  In 2002, Iranian dissidents revealed that the Islamic Republic was pursuing a covert nuclear program.  Since that time, the United States and its European partners, as well as China, have worked to contain the country’s nuclear ambitions, imposing sanctions to force the Iranian government to the negotiating table.  In 2013, Iran agreed to an interim accord that saw it agree to restrictions on its nuclear program in return for some sanction relief.  The United States hopes to have an agreement with Iran by June, thereby averting military action and possibly beginning the restoration of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

This topic brief will discuss recent steps toward finalizing a nuclear deal with Iran, the domestic politics and controversies surrounding such a deal, and how a closer U.S.-Iranian relationship may alter the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.  Extempers are encouraged to read last season’s topic brief on the Iranian nuclear accord in order to understand more of the background of U.S.-Iranian relations.

Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.

The Prospects for a Colombian Peace

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For the last fifty years the Colombian government has been fighting the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a Marxist outfit.  The conflict has claimed 220,000 lives, displaced an estimated five million people, and harmed Colombia’s international image.  Under former President Alvaro Uribe, the Colombian government launched an aggressive campaign against the FARC, which at one time controlled a vast amount of territory in the northern and eastern parts of the country.  Uribe’s tactics, some of which were criticized by the Western world, succeeded in weakening the FARC’s leadership, but did not force the group to the negotiating table.  President Juan Manuel Santos, who served as Uribe’s Minister of Defense, has taken a more conciliatory line toward the FARC, entering into peace negotiations with the group in November 2012.  Those negotiations have borne some fruit, with the FARC declaring a unilateral ceasefire in December and both sides making progress on issues such as land reform and the FARC’s participation in politics.  Santos has said that he wants a peace agreement by the end of the year, but issues such as disarming the FARC, compensating victims of the violence, dealing with the human rights abuses that took place during the conflict, and political resistance by right-wing politicians may scuttle a peace deal.

With progress being made toward a lasting solution for Colombia’s war with the FARC, extempers should be prepared to handle questions about the issue for the rest of this season.  This topic brief will provide a quick overview of the Colombian conflict, address the pace of negotiations thus far, and then analyze the stumbling blocks that could hinder a lasting peace agreement.

Note:  There are other armed groups that are fighting in Colombia such as the National Liberation Army (ELN).  This topic brief will primarily focus on the FARC, though, as they are Colombia’s largest left-wing militant group and, unlike the ELN, they are currently negotiating a peace accord with the Colombian government.

Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.

The Assassination of Boris Nemtsov

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The assassination of Russian political activist Boris Nemtsov in Moscow on February 27 shocked elements of the Russian dissident community.  Nemtsov, a former deputy prime minister in the late 1990s, had been active in protesting Russia’s involvement in the Ukrainian civil war, and he was a vocal critic of the authoritarian tactics of Russian President Vladimir Putin.  Some of his supporters allege that Putin was to blame for the assassination.  They contend that Putin may not have ordered the killing, but his nationalistic rhetoric that has labeled dissident Russians as “traitors” and “fascists,” created the atmosphere that led to Nemtsov’s death.  The Russian government argues that Putin is not responsible for the crime, saying that Nemtsov’s fellow opposition leaders, radical Islamists, or a scorned lover in Nemtsov’s past – or that of his young Ukrainian girlfriend Anna Durytska – were to blame.  American and European officials condemned Nemtsov’s killing, arguing that it shows that Russia is continuing to veer away from democratic processes and growing increasingly intolerant of dissenting views as its economic situation worsens.

This topic brief will highlight Nemtsov’s political career and activism, explain the circumstances surrounding his death and reactions to it, and then analyze what his death means for the future of Russian politics.

Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.

Instability in Yemen (2015)

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Last year, American officials, including President Barack Obama, cited Yemen as an example of a nation that was successfully fighting terrorism.  However, 2015 has not been kind to the Arab world’s poorest country.  Last month, Shi’ite Houthi rebels kidnapped the Yemeni President’s chief of staff and seized the presidential palace.  This led to the resignation of President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who has now been placed under house arrest.  The nation’s parliament has also been dissolved and the United Nations warns of that a civil war could be looming because the Houthis are a minority that cannot command allegiance from other areas of the country.  Anti-terrorism experts warn that the country’s Sunni majority may swear allegiance to Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in an attempt to overthrow the Houthis.  This could complicate American efforts to suppress AQAP, which has targeted Western airliners in recent years and trained one of the attackers of Charlie Hebdo.

This topic brief will provide some background on Yemen’s troubled history and those involved in the current political crisis, explain recent events that have transpired in the country, and then provide some scenarios of how continued instability could affect Western anti-terrorism efforts and regional stability.

Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.

Greece’s Future (2015)

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Five years ago, Greece’s sovereign debt problems nearly brought down the eurozone.  In February 2010, the country found itself unable to pay its creditors and was forced to turn to the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for aid.  As a euro user, Greece was required under the Maastricht Treaty of 1992 to keep deficits below 3% of its GDP and to keep its public debt below a 60% ceiling.  However, Greek political officials concealed the true state of their budget situation with the help of American investment bank Goldman Sachs.  This allowed them to join the eurozone and borrow at low interest rates.  When the true size of Greece’s debt was revealed, panic swept European markets, especially those of heavily indebted countries such as Portugal, Italy, and Spain.  The fear was that if Greece failed to pay its debts that other indebted European countries, all of whom are euro members, would as well.  To calm markets, the so-called Troika of the EU, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the IMF stepped in and funneled billions of dollars in loans to the Greek government.  This assistance required painful austerity measures, which caused Greece to increase taxes and reduce public spending.  The austerity measures have been very unpopular in Greece and two weeks ago, on January 25, the Greek populace elected the far-left SYRIZA Party, which opposes austerity.  New Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has vowed to not follow the conditions imposed by the Troika and is seeking a restructuring of Greece’s external debt.  Analysts warn that SYRIZA’s position puts it on a collision course with powerful EU nations such as Germany and that Greece’s recent election might take it out of the eurozone.

This topic brief will explore Greece’s current economic problems, discuss the outcome of the recent Greek election, and how the country’s future debt negotiations may proceed.

Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.

France and Islamic Extremism

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Two weeks ago on January 7, two gunmen stormed into the offices of Charlie Hebdo, a satirical French magazine, and proceeded to kill eleven people and a police officer.  The gunmen, Cherif and Said Kouachi, were French citizens with Islamic beliefs and their grievance against Charlie Hebdo was the magazine’s cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad, who cannot be depicted per the tenets of the Islam.  Over the next two days, French police tracked down and killed the Kouachi brothers, while one of their accomplices, Amedy Coulibaly was killed after taking a kosher supermarket hostage.  Coulibaly killed four hostages and one policewoman before being neutralized.  The string of attacks shocked the French public, with many seeing the attack on Charlie Hebdo as an assault on the country’s traditions of freedom of speech and expression.  On January 11, an estimated 1.3 million people went into the streets of Paris to march against the violence, which included more than forty heads of state.  The attacks have presented President Francois Hollande with an opportunity to bolster his reputation among French voters, which has eroded over the last year due to a sluggish economy.  However, the attacks may serve to galvanize support for the French far-right, namely the National Front (FN), which has argued for immigration controls and against what they deem as the “Islamization” of France.

This topic brief will cover the status of France’s Muslim population, discuss the French government’s response and that of its international allies to the Charlie Hebdo attacks, and assess how the attacks may affect French politics before 2017 when the country will hold its next presidential election.

Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.

Operation Freedom’s Sentinel

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Two weeks ago, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ended Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan.  Beginning shortly after the September 11 terror attacks, Operation Enduring Freedom produced the fall of the Taliban government, scattered remnants of the al-Qaeda terrorist network, and attempted to provide protection and humanitarian assistance to the Afghan people.  Operation Freedom’s Sentinel will replace Operation Enduring Freedom, with the United States leading a contingent of 13,000 foreign troops who will continue to provide training and intelligence services to Afghan security forces and support for counterterrorism operations.  President Barack Obama has called for a drawdown of all American forces from Afghanistan by 2016, with only 1,000 remaining in a non-combat capacity.  However, 2014 was the deadliest year on record in Afghanistan as more than 5,000 Afghan troops and 10,000 civilians were killed.  Since the American withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 produced the rise of the Islamic State, opponents of the President’s drawdown plan argue that the same fate could befall Afghanistan, thereby erasing the gains that NATO troops made since 2001.  New Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has also expressed hesitation about the withdrawal of more American and foreign troops from Afghan territory, warning last week that a future withdrawal should be based on mutual interests and not rigid timetables.

This topic brief will provide an assessment of Afghanistan’s progress during Operation Enduring Freedom, discuss how President Obama may handle Afghan policy over the next two years, and assess whether Afghanistan will need a sizable international presence beyond 2016.

Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.

Russia’s Economic Difficulties (2015)

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Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia has improved its economic fortunes thanks to high oil prices.  Oil and natural gas make up 70% of the country’s exports and higher prices have enabled Putin to solidify his rule by making economic conditions more amenable for the country’s middle class, which weathered two periods of hyperinflation during the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union.  However, the collapse of global oil prices, in conjunction with Western sanctions, are sending Russia down the road to recession.  Considering the fact that Russia is a prominent actor within the BRICS nations and that good economic fortunes have solidified Putin’s rule, economic difficulties in Russia could create significant upheaval not only within the country, but across the world as well.

This topic brief will break down Russia’s current economic problems, how those problems may affect Europe as a whole, and then discuss what they might mean for Putin’s political future.

Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.

Normalizing U.S.-Cuban Relations (2014)

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Since 1960, the United States has maintained an economic embargo on Cuba, an island nation just ninety miles off the coast of Florida.  The embargo was an instrument of Cold War policymaking, as Cuba became a communist nation under Fidel Castro and seized American economic assets without compensation.  Even after the Cold War ended, the United States maintained the embargo as a political instrument in hopes of weakening the Castro regime.  However, in the 1990s and 2000s, the embargo came to be seen by other Latin American nations as an unjust extension of American imperialism and some pundits allege that the embargo came to isolate the United States from the rest of the Western Hemisphere just as much as the embargo isolated Cuba from the American mainland.  Last week, President Obama announced that he was taking executive action to weaken the long standing Cuban embargo and that he would move to normalize relations with Cuba.  The President’s action received bipartisan support from those who believe that the embargo harms America’s relations with other Latin American nations, yet also received bipartisan criticism for rewarding a dictatorial regime that abuses the rights of its citizens.  The President’s actions have forced 2016 presidential contenders such as Hillary Clinton, Rand Paul, Jeb Bush, and Marco Rubio to weigh in on the issue and depending on how well the President’s normalization push goes, it could become a significant issue in the Republican presidential primaries and the 2016 general election.

This topic brief will highlight some of the important steps taken to get Cuba and the United States to the negotiating table, discuss what actions President Obama will take to weaken the embargo, and the political impact that normalizing Cuban relations may have over the next two years, especially with regards to presidential politics.

Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.

Collapsing Oil Prices (2014)

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Since June, the price of oil has plunged 40% on the international market in response to economic slowdowns in Europe and Asia and a glut of supply from the Middle East and North America.  The falling price of oil, near $60 a barrel at the time of the writing of this brief, has been a boon for nations that import fossil fuels.  It also provides much needed stimulus for consumer-driven economies such as the United States as people are able to take the money they would normally spend on high gas prices and direct it to other economic activities.  However, the falling oil price has worked against some economies that rely largely on the proceeds from oil exports.  Countries such as Venezuela, Russia, and Nigeria, among others, are now left wondering how they will react to the sudden fall of global oil prices and the decisions that they make could determine whether their current governments survive.

This topic brief will cover the reasons for the collapse of global oil prices, how the falling price will affect the United States economy, and how prominent oil exporters will be affected.

Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.

Israel’s New Elections (2014)

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After existing for twenty months Israel’s coalition government has collapsed.  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a press conference last week to announce the firing of Justice Minister Tzipi Livni and Finance Minister Yair Lapid on the grounds that they were insubordinate and plotting behind his back.  Livni and Lapid were the two moderate members of Netanyahu’s Cabinet and their dismissal removes their political support for his coalition, thereby necessitating that new elections be held.  Israeli voters went to the polls to create Netanyahu’s existing coalition in January 2013 and now, in the Israeli tradition, they will head back to decide whether Netanyahu deserves a fourth term, which is the one defining issue of the race thus far.  The elections are tentatively scheduled for March, with March 17 looking like the probable election date.

This topic brief will break down why Israel is heading for new elections, assess what the United States would like to see take place in March, and analyze what early polls are saying about the possible outcome of the 2015 Israeli parliamentary elections.

Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.

The Fate of Abenomics

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When he assumed office in December 2012 Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledged a radical course of action to deal with Japan’s economic downturn.  Since 1990 the world’s third-largest economy has been plagued by deflation and sagging consumer confidence creating what Japanese policymakers call the “Lost Two Decades.”  Abe’s program, dubbed “Abenomics,” called for a combination of expansionary monetary and fiscal policy and structural reform.  Throughout 2013 the Japanese economy showed signs of recovery and inflation was moving upwards, but Abe’s decision to increase the country’s consumption tax from 5% to 8% in April has produced the country’s fourth recession since 2008.  In response to disappointing economic numbers, Abe announced last week that he is postponing a future increase in the consumption tax until 2017 and he called for new parliamentary elections next month.  He justified his call for new elections by saying that he needed a mandate from voters to continue his economic program and pledged to resign if his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) coalition did not win.  Although the LDP is expected to triumph in next month’s vote, analysts question whether Abe has the stomach to continue major economic reforms in light of Japan’s recent recession and some criticize the upcoming election as a useless exercise.

This topic brief will discuss some of Japan’s economic programs and the progress of Abenomics, analyze the circumstances that led up to the recent parliamentary election, and prognosticate how the election could affect the implementation of Abe’s economic agenda.

Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.

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