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The European migrant crisis was arguably the biggest international news story of 2015. More than a million migrants poured into Europe last year, fleeing violence in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya. At first, European leaders such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel were welcoming of refugees, but the sheer number of new arrivals overwhelmed countries such as Greece and triggered a backlash, especially among conservatives that feared that the flood would radically alter Europe’s demographics and culture. The Parisian terror attacks in November, as well as accusations that refugees attacked women in Cologne, Germany, bolstered the case for limiting new arrivals and it appears that the European Union (EU) has reached a deal with Turkey to do just that. The deal calls for Turkey to take in refugees that fail to acquire asylum in Europe, while Europe will provide billions in aid for Turkey to deal with refugees. Also, Turkey’s aspirations of joining the EU have been revived, with the EU pledging to open new chapters in those delayed negotiations and promising that Turkish nationals will have access to the organization’s visa-free travel zone by June. However, skeptics say that this deal is unworkable from a logistics and legal point-of-view. They argue that Turkey is not safe for migrants and that the EU is absconding of its responsibility to help the world’s less fortunate.
This topic brief will review major actors in the accord, the significant parts of the EU’s deal with Turkey, and assess the complications that could arise in making the deal work. Departing from its conventional topic brief format, this will try to get “more to the point” about some of the growing issues in the deal. Source links will be included at the end of the brief.
Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.
Key Actors in the Agreement
The European Union: The 28-member European bloc is one of the party’s of the agreement with Turkey. It is seeking a way that will significantly limit migrant flows into the continent since more than one million migrants have made the dangerous journey from Turkey to European nations (notably Greece) since January of last year. European politicians desperately want to stop the flow of migrants since it is undermining centrist politicians throughout the continent, notably in Eastern Europe where countries such as Hungary and Slovakia, have worked to secure their borders. Finding a lasting solution is the only way that European nations hope to preserve the Schengen passport-free zone.
The Turkish Government: Headed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, the Turkish government has taken in a large number of migrants from Syria, estimated to be roughly 2.7 million people. These refugees are located in camps along the Turkish-Syria border and human traffickers then take these desperate people across the Aegean Sea in rickety vessels to the Greek Islands. Erdogan has criticized the European approach to migrants, saying that the continent is taking less than its fair share. However, Turkey has been willing to make a deal because it wants to use the crisis to increase its chances of one day being able to join the EU. A decade ago Turkey’s accession talks to the body were blocked by France and Germany and significant questions persist about its human rights record (more on this below).
Recep Tayyip Erdogan: The President of Turkey, Erdogan has been highly critical of the EU in recent weeks. He has blasted the organization for supporting the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), an organization that he classifies as a terrorist organization and is engaged in a campaign to eliminate. Erdogan has been under fire from the European press for his poor treatment of the nation’s Kurdish minority (which some say has fueled the ongoing spat with the PKK), the jailing of anti-government journalists, and the recent seizure of the nation’s best-selling newspaper, Zaman, due to the fact that it is linked to Erdogan’s opponent, Fethullah Gulen. Erdogan might view a migrant deal as a way to appear as a stronger international leader and if he can get Turkey into the EU that would solidify his historical legacy. However, there are significant concerns that the deal is empowering someone that has redefined Turkey’s secular system of government and shows very little concern for European values. The EU’s distaste for Erdogan might be why Davutoglu was sent to negotiations instead.
Middle Eastern Migrants: Migrants did not have a voice at the negotiations, but their flow to Europe is not stopping. As noted above, more than one million migrants have flooded into the EU since last year. These migrants largely come from Syria, but are also fleeing war zones in Libya, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Some of these migrations are due to the devastation created by the Islamic State in its various campaigns against religious minorities and civilian populations. The deal is trying to discourage these migrants from falling into the hands of traffickers – linked to the Turkish mafia, Libyan jihadists, and other criminal networks – that are charging hefty sums to take migrants in unsafe vessels across the Aegean Sea. Once in Europe, migrants have found it harder to reach more prosperous EU nations in Northern Europe. For example, Macedonian officials have stopped migrant flows from Greece. This has left 45,000 migrants trapped at the border town of Idomeni. Here they are struggling to stay warm and survive, but they continue to hope that the border will be reopened and that they will be able to continue their journey. European leaders such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel eventually want to resettle refugees equally throughout the continent, but there have been few takers for such a scheme. A Merkel-inspired plan to relocate 160,000 refugees from Southern European countries such as Greece and Italy has only settled 1,000 refugees so far.
The Major Terms of the Agreement
Repatriation of Refugees: Under the accord, the European Union (EU) will examine the asylum status of those migrants that have already reached Europe. If migrants fail to receive asylum status or fail to apply for it they will be sent back to Turkey. Implementing this will require the aid of thousands of translators, lawyers in migrant cases, judges, and border guards. Those who are deported will go “to the back of the line” of migrants that are in Turkey and wish to come to the EU. The EU is trying to send the message that migrants that immediately land in Europe are no longer free from being deported.
More Efficient System of Admitting Refugees: Once Europe has cleared out asylum applications, it says that it will admit up to 72,000 refugees that are processed by immigration officials in Turkey. Those migrants who have not yet attempted to cross the Aegean will receive priority over those who have been deported back to Turkey after making the journey (or are intercepted in route). The overarching goal is that “for every Syrian migrant sent back to Turkey, one Syrian in Turkey will be resettled in the EU.” Human rights groups really wanted a cap of 108,000, as they said that was a fair burden for Europe to bear, but the EU has said that if this accord works they may raise the cap on new arrivals beyond 72,000.
Financial Aid to Turkey: Since Turkey is willing to be the way station for migrants wishing to head to the EU, it will receive significant financial assistance from European nations. More than $3 billion will be given to Turkey to cope with refugees immediately and another $3 billion will be paid to the Turkish government by 2018. This funding will pay for food vouchers, schools, and other significant projects for refugees.
Concessions to Turkey on Further European Integration: There are two components to the deal in this category. First, Turkish nationals are supposed to be able to access the Schengen passport-free zone by June. This will allow Turkish citizens to travel throughout EU nations that follow that accord (Great Britain is excluded). Turkey is currently the only EU candidate country that does not enjoy visa-free travel. Second, Turkey’s accession talks will be restarted in July. EU leaders have said that they will start the talks on chapter thirty-three, which is focused on budget policy.
Obstacles to Making the Deal Work
Concerns About Human Rights: Human rights groups such as Amnesty International were quick to denounce the accord. Calling it a “dark day for humanity,” Amnesty said that the EU was turning its back on refugee populations that it has historically supported. One of the problems is that if the EU wishes to send migrants back to Turkey then Turkey has to be considered a “safe zone” for them. However, Turkey still has a 1951 convention in place that says that it will only give refuge to those fleeing war and persecution in Europe, not in other Middle Eastern countries. To be sure, Turkey has already granted safe haven at the moment to refugees from war zones in the Middle East, but there are concerns that such protections are temporary and not permanent. Other critics warn that Turkey has deportation agreements with war torn nations such as Afghanistan and there are concerns that this could put refugees sent back to Turkey at risk. Couple all of this with Turkey’s spotty human rights record in recent years and advocacy groups warn that a humanitarian disaster could unfold.
The Logistical Nightmare: Greece is the major landing point for migrants coming into Europe from Turkey, but Greece has said that it is not immediately prepared to implement the accord. Extempers should know by now about Greece’s dire financial situation so ironically the EU is now depending on its border security from one of its most indebted members. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has said that he will not let his country become “a warehouse for souls,” so he appears to favor the agreement, but he is demanding more financial assistance and the arrival of thousands of European bureaucrats to implement the accord. The UN Refugee Agency has demanded that Greece improve its reception centers for migrants and improve its systems for sifting through asylum claims. It fears that if this is not done that the rights of migrants will be violated.
The Public Backlash: Not only did human rights groups deplore the deal, some more liberal and progressive Europeans also took to the streets of London, Athens, Barceolona, Amsterdam, and Geneva to denounce it. The recent German regional elections dealt a blow to Merkel, but the political parties that benefitted were the Greens and Social Democrats that have adopted her progressive position on the migrant question. It is unclear whether far-right political parties may benefit if the accord breaks down, but the EU may face a public relations nightmare if large numbers of migrants are forcibly deported back to Turkey. Pro-migrant forces would try to use videos and social media to pressure European leaders to raise the cap on migrants they will accept and could try to delegitimize the agreement.
Stumbling Blocks on Turkish EU Travel and Accession: In order to make the agreement work, Turkey was given significant concessions. However, it is not clear that Turkey will receive the benefits that it hopes to get, especially in terms of greater rights within the EU. For example, for Turkish nationals to access the Schengen Zone their government needs to meet EU rules. Right now, Turkey has only met about 50% of seventy-two bureaucratic conditions to make this a reality. Turkey’s passports still lack biometric security and in light of recent terror attacks over the past few months in Paris and Brussels it is unlikely that EU officials will give Turkey a pass on this point. Also, European populations are still hostile to allowing the free travel of Turks across the EU. Cultural, religious, and socioeconomic concerns (such as Turks taking jobs from citizens of EU nations) could scuttle the accord as nations try to block it. Turkey’s accession talks could also slow down due to the ongoing dispute over Cyprus. Greek Cyprus is part of the EU, but Turkey refuses to recognize the legitimacy of this government. In 1974, Turkish troops occupied part of the country after a military coup on the island. Cyprus has been trying to leverage its EU position into acquiring recognition as a de facto condition of Turkish accession to the body. Although the EU is opening uncontroversial chapters of accession talks with Turkey right now, more sensitive discussions are bound to arise if the process accelerates and the Cypriot question could unravel the agreement.
Actually Stopping Migrants: There are significant concerns that the deal will actually not stop migrants but merely rechannel them. The deal with Turkey is concerned with Greece, but it does not apply to other destinations for migrants such as Libya. There are worries that if the EU shuts down the traffic from the Aegean that it will just redirect migrant flows. And if these flows end up increasing from North Africa the EU could find itself back to square one and in much worse shape because Libya does not have a functioning government with which to negotiate. There are also concerns that this could end up making smugglers more money since the routes could become more dangerous to traverse if Turkey and the EU tighten their security.
Sources
“A Messy but Necessary Deal” (The Economist, March 12, 2016)
“Desperate Times, Desperate Measures” (The Economist, March 12, 2016)
“EU-Turkey Deal to Return Refugees from Greece Comes Into Force” (The Guardian, March 19, 2016)
“EU-Turkey Migration Deal Hard to Implement, Greek Officials Warn” (Toronto Star, March 19, 2016)
“EU, Turkey Seal Deal to Return Migrants, But is it Legal? Or Doable?” (Reuters, March 20, 2016)
“EU, Turkey Strike Deal to Send Back Migrants” (Indian Business Standard, March 18, 2016)
“Migrant Crisis: EU-Turkey Deal Comes Into Effect” (BBC, March 19, 2016)
“The EU-Migrants Deal” (Wall Street Journal, March 19, 2016)
“Turkey and EU Reach Landmark Deal on Refugees” (Al Jazeera, March 18, 2016)
“U.S. Views EU, Turkey Migrant Deal as ‘Important Step’” (Al-Arabiya, March 19, 2016)