Overview

After a few weeks mired in the mess of American politics, it’s time to return international issues and the mess of politics that is Kenya – long one of the most stable African nations.  Six weeks ago Kenya held a presidential election that was won – albeit questionably – by Mwai Kibaki.  Since that time, ethnic violence has spread throughout the country, with all major ethnic groups against the Kikuyu – the tribe Mr. Kibaki is from.  While international efforts have arisen to try to prevent Kenya from becoming another Sudan, including a special envoy by Kofi Annan, the lack of a united front or response has failed to create enough pressure to end the political disputes that continue the violence.

Key Terms and Figures

Mwai Kibaki – Proclaimed Winner of the election from the Party of National Unity (PNU).  Was the incumbent ran mainly byappealing to his tribesmen – the Kikuyu – and other central Kenyan Tribes.

Raila Odinga – Primary opposition candidate from the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).  Ran on a platform of greater representation for Western Kenyan tribes and the costal Muslim population.

Kofi Annan  — Former Secretary General of the United Nations, sent in to be the primary mediator in the election dispute.

Official Vote Totals – Kibaki –  4,584,721 (46%), Odinga 4,352,993 (44%) Others (10%)

Major Issues

Allegations of Vote Rigging:  Within days of the election, supporters of Odinga as well as EU election monitors noted that abnormalities in the voting processes may have resulted in an additional 300,000 votes being cast for Kibaki.  This marine is enough to sway the outcome of the vote.  This disparity was highlighted by the fact that Odinga had been leading in most national polls and the fact that his party – the ODM – had won parliamentary elections earlier in the year.  This led to almost immediate riots and unrest throughout the country.

Tribalism:  Shortly after the accusations of fraud, attacks began on Kikuyu in the slums of Nairobi.  On New Year’s Eve overt retaliation began as over 100 supporters of Odinga were killed.   Odinga called for a rally on January 3, to call for a new election and denounce Kikuyu dominance and violence in politics.  As the really began it was broken up with tear gas and water cannons.  Shortly thereafter the new cabinet was created with representation from all Kenyan parties except the ODM.  Since then police – dominantly Kikuyu – have continued to clash with protestors leading many fearing that Kenya could explode into an ethnically motivated civil war.  It is estimated that between 800 to1,000 people have already been killed, including multiple ODM members of parliament.  Beyond the casualties over 250,000 have been displaced – mostly by efforts to ethnically cleanse communities – placing a strain on local economies and heightening ethnic tensions.

The International Response:  On January 9th in an effort to end the violence the United Nations sent Kofi Annan to try to convince the leaders to negotiate a solution that would allow for a stable government and an end of violence.  One of the first accomplishments was to get both leaders to accept that there would be no recount, but rather a commission to investigate voting irregularities and recommend future corrections.  In order to placate supporters of the ODM, Annan has proposed a coalition government that gives broad powers to the ODM.  While Odinga has suggested he would accept this solution, Kibaki has yet to announce that he would give any ground.  Much of this hesitance can be placed on the feet of the Chinese, who have continued to provide economic support to Kibaki, claiming that Africa isn’t the place for multi-party democracy.

Implications for the rest of the region:  The stability of Kenya becomes especially important because it is the main support system for nations such as Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, as well as the eastern portions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.  Thus, as the instability continues these nations lose many of their trade routes and connections with global markets, creating an economic pinch in these nations that increases the propensity for political turmoil.  As such, this could not only destabilize these small nations, but also threatens a region of the Congo that has been long mired in civil war. 

Potential Questions

Can Kofi Annan bring about a compromise in Kenya?

What impact will the Kenyan crisis have on the rest of East Africa?

Will a compromise bring an end to ethic violence in Kenya?

Should the international community place more pressure on Kibaki?

Should China continue its economic support of the Kenyan government?