As has been the case over the last several years, international attention was focused on North Korea last week as former U.S. president Bill Clinton went on a “humanitarian” mission to seek the release of two American journalists detained there. Unlike other attempts at international reconciliation with North Korea, Clinton’s visit was a large success, winning the release of the journalists and possibly opening a new arena of dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea over its human rights record and nuclear program.
Clinton’s visit to North Korea was the first high profile U.S. visit to the country since Clinton sent his Secretary of State Madeline Albright there a decade ago. Under Clinton, tensions between the U.S. and North Korea were high, with some experts predicting a renewed Korean War in the post-Cold War world. However, thanks to the 1994 Agreed Framework between the two countries, those tensions simmered down until North Korea withdrew from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) in 2003.
The visit of the former president granted a degree of prestige to North Korea’s ailing leader Kim Jong-il, whose recent belligerent actions in regards to nuclear weapon and missile tests are said to be designed to shore up his standing in the country with the military and ensure that his third son takes his place. In fact, it has been reported that the North Korean government informed the United States that if President Clinton came to visit them that they would grant the release of the two journalists.
This topic brief will provide some quick background of the dispute over the journalists, explain how the release of the journalists could impact international mediation over the North Korea nuclear issue, and how it could have major political and foreign policy impacts for the Obama administration moving forward.
Background
The two American journalists, Euna Lee and Laura Ling, who work for former vice-president Al Gore’s Current TV, were captured by North Korean officials in March of this year. North Korea’s official line is that the two journalists were captured after illegally crossing North Korea’s border with China. This border is of major importance to North Korean officials because it has been a major route of North Korean emigration into China. In fact, Chinese authorities have worked in conjunction with North Korean officials so that there is not a refugee flood over the border and people who have been caught illegally passing into China via this border have been sent back to North Korea or have been executed.
In a move typical of anti-American, authoritarian regimes, North Korea also accused the journalists of trying to damage the North Korean government with a smear campaign. North Korea is highly sensitive of this issue as it has been embarrassed internationally by journalists who have snuck into North Korea and escaped with footage showing the dire economic conditions in the country and how many of the populace have been brainwashed by the ruling party’s juche philosophy. Interestingly enough, Laura Ling’s sister, Lisa Ling, who works for CNN News, released a documentary about conditions in North Korea in 2007. Due to this connection, some in the media believed that Ling was detained based on her sister’s work in the country several years prior.
While some readers may instinctively believe that these journalists got what they deserved for crossing into North Korea’s territory illegally, the story is not that straight forward. It is not unusual for North Korean border officials to go outside of their duties and attempt to kidnap citizens of other countries. North Korea had one such kidnapping campaign in Japan in the 1970s. Disruptions on the border by North Korean officials are commonplace and it is very possible that Ling and Lee never crossed into North Korea’s territory and were instead apprehended in Chinese territory by North Korean border guards. If so, this would be a major public embarrassment for China, who has remained quiet on the situation.
For their alleged crimes, the two journalists were sentenced to a dozen years of hard labor in one of North Korea’s notorious prison camps. These camps are widely reported to starve inmates and abuse basic principles of human rights. After the journalists were sentenced, Gore and Lisa Ling appealed to the North Korean government for their release. U.S. President Barack Obama also appealed for their release on humanitarian grounds. Not surprisingly, North Korea rejected these appeals. What extempers should take away from this diplomatic exchange is that North Korea would never agree to release the journalists unless they got something in return because doing so would show that their system of justice was a sham. In other words, it would be a major public embarrassment.
International Mediation
Without prior announcement, President Clinton made an impromptu “humanitarian” visit to North Korea to secure the release of the journalists. Although the White House argued that Clinton was not sent to convey any messages from the U.S. government and was not being sent on an official mission, this looks disingenuous. The biggest reason is that Clinton’s wife, Hillary Clinton, is the U.S. Secretary of State. North Korean officials argue that during the three hour meeting between Clinton and Kim Jong-il, which saw several photographs taken (and as you will notice Clinton is not smiling in any of them), Clinton conveyed an apology for the journalists crossing into North Korean territory and carried with him a message from President Obama. The White House has denied both of these charges. Nevertheless, Clinton’s visit did give North Korea the “rock star” moment of attention that Kim Jong-il has always craved and for that reason, they view the resolution of this dispute as a public relations coup for their country.
The major question that lingers after Clinton was able to secure the release of the journalists is what comes next. The Bush administration refused to engage North Korea in bilateral discussions because it said that engaging North Korea on this level would grant it an undeserved level of legitimacy. The same argument has been used when dealing with Iran’s nuclear program. The Obama administration has made it a goal to coax North Korea back into the six party talks, which North Korea abandoned in April 2009 and has said that it will not return to. Diplomats fear that if the U.S. attempts to go a bilateral route, as is know being pushed by some international relations experts in academic circles, that South Korea and Japan will grow increasingly nervous about North Korea, which could lead them to establish nuclear programs of their own. Although both of these nations are currently protected by the U.S. military and the U.S. nuclear umbrella, they worry that the U.S. might withdraw that support in an agreement and leave them defenseless. They also worry that U.S. policymakers will not fully appreciate the regional dynamics at play in the Korean conflict and be far too generous to the North Koreans. Therefore, the dispute over whether to continue a multilateral strategy or shift to a bilateral one will continue to dominate U.S. policymaking circles over North Korea in light of Clinton’s visit.
Another issue at play with North Korea is what Russia and China will do. Although both nations have supported tougher sanction regimes in light of North Korea’s belligerence, they may see North Korea’s release of the journalists as the regime deciding to take a softer approach towards its neighbors and the international community. Using this argument, China and Russia may push to relax sanctions on North Korea, or attempt to undermine them in other ways thereby disrupting international progress on this issue. For this reason, extempers should keep an eye on China and Russia in the weeks that follow this incident to see if they push for a relaxation of sanctions.
Political and Foreign Policy Impacts
Proponents of international engagement argue that the success of his visit shows that diplomacy still has a major role to play in solving international conflicts. They argue that President Clinton was able to achieve a peaceful resolution to this issue without President Obama needing to use force or new sanctions to free the journalists. These “liberal” foreign policy experts have taken to comparing Clinton’s approach with the more belligerent tone of President Bush and argue that we should build on Clinton’s visit by taking a softer tone towards the world’s most aggressive powers, such as North Korea and Iran. Also, a benefit of Clinton’s visit is that he can provide some direct intelligence about Kim Jong-il’s mental and physical health, which may benefit U.S. policymakers who get very little reliable intelligence on North Korea.
Republicans were quick to argue back that President Clinton’s visit was not an official U.S. government visit and has done nothing to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue. Republican operatives have tried to paint Clinton’s success as a negative for Obama because it showed that his foreign policy style is weak. When a former president has to go to another country to solve a problem the official administration cannot, it can “show up” the acting president and his Secretary of State. However, Democrats have countered back that it shows the resources Obama can call upon to resolve international disputes, something that Republicans, outside of President George H.W. Bush do not have. When all is said and done, though, this dispute will most likely mean little for 2010 or 2012 unless information is later revealed that the U.S. had to give something else to North Korea to win the release of these journalists than Clinton’s visit. Such a public embarrassment would paint the image of the Obama administration “negotiating with terrorists” and appeasing rogue states that endanger U.S. national security.
A final dispute for extempers to look closely at that is parallel to this one is the predicament of three American hikers who have been apprehended in Iran. The hikers, students of the UC Berkeley, were in Iraq and crossed into Iran from Iraq’s Kurdish areas. Despite being warned not to travel too far because the border is poorly marked and Kurdish guerillas operate in the area, the students found their way into Iranian territory and National Security Advisor Jim Jones confirmed that Iran has said that they have the three hikers in custody. Getting these hikers back poses the same dilemmas for the Obama administration as North Korea did. After all, how can you get back American citizens from a rogue country without appearing to cave into their wishes and demands? Whether Iran tries to use these hikers as pawns to win concessions over its nuclear program or releases them simply to win favor with the West remains to be seen. However, Obama may not send Clinton again because doing so carries the risk of appearing overly reliant on non-government actors and having Clinton fight Obama’s battles for him.