If any extempers thought that the removal of the Bush administration would see a reduction in international tensions they have been proved wrong by the recent tensions on the Korean peninsula that continue to rise daily. The North Korean regime of Kim Jong-Il, known for its inability to refrain from shining the international media spotlight on it for too long, is threatening to launch a long range missile, called Taepodong 2 or Paektusan 2, which it claims is actually a rocket meant to send a satellite into space.
International pundits are worried about the fallout of this missile launch. Whether or not the missile launch succeeds is not as much of an issue as whether or not North Korea launches the missile at all. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has warned that if North Korea proceeds with this launch, which North Korea says will come between April 4th and 8th, it could lead to the destruction of the six party talks concerning North Korea’s nuclear program and leave it more isolated than it was before. North Korea, for its part, says that it would consider any attempt to interfere with this launch as an act of war, which could have very negative ramifications for the entire East Asia region.
This brief will provide extempers with the details of why North Korea may be launching this missile, international reaction to North Korea’s plans to launch this missile, and how a successful missile launch could impact U.S. and international policy towards North Korea.
North Korea’s Motivations
The actions of the Kim regime in North Korea are very hard to predict. The country is internationally isolated and has raised the ire of U.S. officials in the past for its activities in proliferation, the selling of weapons and missile technology, drug smuggling, and a massive U.S. counterfeiting operation. Currently, the United Nations estimates that there are nearly nine million people in the country that are reliant on food aid. However, despite this high figure, North Korea told the U.S. earlier this month that it wanted the U.S. to stop its shipments of food aid. The U.S. government has criticized this move, but North Korea most likely does not like the U.S. having food aid due to its paranoia of outside ideas entering the country and because the U.S. has oversight regulations that come with its food aid, something that China and South Korea, two other major suppliers of food aid, do not require.
Based on recent events there might be several motivations for North Korea to pursue this missile launch. One is to test the nerve of new U.S. President Barack Obama. This will be Obama’s first test in dealing with the Korean situation and North Korea might be trying to push Obama around, much like the Soviet Union tried to do with John F. Kennedy. Astute extempers will note that this bullying culminated in the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.
Also, North Korea might be trying to ensure the survival of the Kim regime. A successful missile launch, whose implications will be discussed in further detail later, would enable the Korean regime, once it acquires the ability to place warheads on these missiles, to hit targets in Western Europe or the United States. Such advancements would cause U.S. policymakers to think twice before envisioning that a war that involved North Korea would only be limited to Asia. By continuing to develop its military capabilities, North Korea feels as if it is creating its own security blanket, one that the U.S. and its allies cannot interfere with if they value the lives of their citizens.
This security blanket extends to Asia, as North Korea’s military policy for years has relied on short and mid-range missiles. The Wall Street Journal on March 31st, argued that developing more missile technology is a major part of North Korea’s military because economic problems have reduced the ability of the country to win a major war. Therefore, North Korea’s military capabilities rest on the notion that they can overwhelm Japanese and South Korea defenses with their missiles before any retaliation against the regime can occur.
North Korea may also be trying to gain the upper hand in future negotiations over sanctions against the regime. While U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has gone on record as saying that he believes sanctions successfully force the North Korea regime to talk, North Korea has warned that if it is taken to the UN Security Council over the launch of its missile that it will completely withdrew from the six party talks concerning its nuclear program. A pullout of the talks could stir up tensions inside of the six party talks, between more “hawkish” nations like the United States and other countries that want to coddle the regime such as China.
Preparations for the Launch
In anticipation for the launch of this missile, the United States has deployed two ships from South Korea that are equipped with missile interceptors. The Japanese navy has also deployed two ships and put them on alert for the North Korea missile launch.
Of all countries in the region, Japan has the most to worry about for this launch, especially if something goes awry. Documents submitted to the international community by North Korea, which prove its intentions for this launch, say that the debris from the launch will go into the Pacific Ocean to the east of Japan and into the waters that separate North Korea and Japan. The Japanese government is worried about possible debris coming down inside of its territory and has argued that it will shoot down any debris that could endanger its populations. To prepare for this the Japanese government has deployed Patriot missile batteries in Tokyo. However, Japanese military planners concede to The Christian Science Monitor last week that it is not 100 percent certain that it can shoot down this debris.
In recent developments, the U.S. government has admitted that there is little it can do to prevent North Korea from launching the missile. Although international law gives nations the right to use space for commercial, economic, and exploration purposes, North Korea is barred from conducting any missile or nuclear tests by UN resolution. However, despite having a justification for eliminating the North Korean missile, the U.S. government has decided not to utilize the option of destroying the missile on its launch pad or shooting it down once it is launched. Of course, if either of these actions took place they could be considered by North Korea as an act of war, which it has threatened to do, and that would place South Korea civilians and U.S. military personnel in South Korea in danger. The South Korea government of Lee Myung-bak told The Financial Times on March 30th that it does not support any military action against North Korea because of its potential to upset talks in the region over the North’s nuclear program.
Consequences of a Successful Launch
Intelligence experts are closely monitoring this test for signs that Iran and North Korea are working together on missile technology. The Japanese press has reported that there are 15 Iranian missile experts in North Korea to assist with the test. The Kim regime throughout the 1990s earned money through the sale of weapons and missile technology, with top customers being Pakistan and Libya. However, as The Wall Street Journal notes on March 31st, these countries quit their contacts with North Korea following the 9/11 attacks as they gravitated more towards the United States. This greatly reduced North Korea’s estimated $600 million yearly income from these sales. A successful missile launch could increase the demand for North Korean missile technology, whereas a failed launch, which was the result of North Korea tests in 1998 and 2006, would have the opposite effect. Thus, in terms of its overall economic picture, North Korea has a lot riding on these tests.
The North Korean situation could also have an impact on Barack Obama’s plans to cut defense spending. In an attempt to limit the size of deficits and boost spending for other domestic priorities, the Obama administration would like there to be sizeable cuts in defense spending. One of the programs that faces significant cuts is America’s research into creating a missile defense shield. The idea of a missile defense shield held huge sway in the Bush administration, especially during its first term, when the administration backed out of the 1972 ABM treaty with Russia which placed limitations on these systems. If North Korea’s test proves successful, thereby making Alaska, Hawaii, and some of the Western United States vulnerable to a North Korean missile, the advocates for this system will receive a major boost for how a missile defense shield is a necessary component of U.S. defense. This could also make Obama’s defense positions appear weak, making an argument Republicans could use against him in 2012. Despite the fact that Obama is relatively new to the scene, if North Korea’s missile test proves successful it is something that Obama will have to counter and fast so as not to lose national security ground to the opposition.
The final consequence of a missile launch is that it could embolden North Korean actions. Knowing that the regime could be impervious to some international pressure if it acquires the ability to put warheads on these missiles, the North Koreans might be willing to try more provocative actions. The current pattern of events is already signifying this trend when earlier this month the regime blocked South Korean access to a joint factory park in Kaesong. This move stranded 400 South Korean managers and nearly depleted the supplies of the businesses operating in the park. South Korea has warned the North against such measures occurring in the future, but the question lingers as to how much weight these statements will carry if the United States feels more vulnerable to the North’s moves.
Thus, the major implication if the North succeeds at this launch if that it might cause a revolution in U.S. foreign policy towards East Asia as the U.S. starts feeling more direct effects from North Korea’s unstable policies, which Japan and South Korea have been dealing with for decades.