The North Korean Threat? (2016)

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Although the Cold War has been over with for decades one of its proxy conflicts persists. The Korean Peninsula today remains divided between a democratic, capitalist South Korea and a totalitarian, communist North Korea, with both sides technically still at war since an armistice ended the Korean War from 1950-1953. The United States still bases more than 30,000 troops in South Korea, anticipating a North Korean attack due to threats made by current and past leaders, notably King Jong-un and his father Kim Jong-il. What makes North Korea’s bellicose rhetoric concerning is that it has enhanced its nuclear capabilities since the 1990s. The international community has worked to punish the North for this activity, but the regime has persisted and analysts worry that its missile technology is steadily improving, with some worrying that one day the North might have the ability to target Hawaii, Alaska, or the West Coast of the United States. Nevertheless, are worries about North Korea, a regime that struggles to feed its own people, justified? It is not uncommon for extempers to make such calculations in rounds concerning East Asia or foreign policy and that is what this topic brief will attempt to help with.

This topic brief will provide some vocabulary that extempers should know when discussing the North Korean nuclear threat, highlight the reasons that the international community has struggled to deal with North Korea, and analyze why North Korea is a growing threat to international security.

Readers are also encouraged to use the links below and in the related R&D to bolster their files about this topic.

Vocabulary

Kaesong Industrial Region (KIR): Name given for a joint industrial park that is run by the North and South Korean governments. It was established as a trust building exercise that could one day lead to greater economic ties between the two sides and it sees South Korean companies employ an estimated 53,000 workers from North Korea. The region is located within North Korean territory, just over the border, but some human rights activists have condemned the project, noting that the wages that North Korean workers make are sent directly to the North Korean government. The region is currently not operating due to a spat between both governments. This was triggered over North Korea reportedly testing a hydrogen bomb and experimenting with rocket technology.

Kim Jong-il: The father of current leader Kim Jong-un, who passed away in December 2011. Kim ruled North Korea for twenty years, growing the size of the national military, accelerating the nation’s drive toward the development of nuclear weapons technology, and presiding over disastrous economic policies that produced a massive famine in the 1990s. Interestingly enough, Kim still holds a post in the Korean government, holding the title of “Eternal General Secretary” since it is customary for North Korea to give leadership positions to members of the Kim family when they pass away. North Koreans are taught unusual facts about him such as the fact that he was born on a magic mountain and shot a round of 34 (38-under-par) in his first and only time playing golf. That round included making eleven holes-in-one.

Kim Jong-un: Current leader of North Korea that assumed power in December 2011. He holds a variety of titles in the country, notably as Supreme Commander of the Korean People’s Army, First Secretary of the Korean Workers’ Party, and First Chairman of the National Defense Commission. Over the last several years Kim has worked to consolidate his leadership, purging some members of his father’s old regime and ensuring that the military and bureaucrats have complete devotion to him. He is only thirty-three-years-old and is the youngest leader in the world. Like his father, he utilizes very harsh rhetoric for North Korea’s foes (notably the United States and South Korea) and has pledged to accelerate the country’s nuclear program. He is reportedly a fan of the National Basketball Association (NBA), which can make for good AGD fodder in speeches.

Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ): Name for the militarized border between North and South Korea. The zone has existed since the end of active hostilities in the Korean War of 1950-1953. The DMZ is roughly 160 miles long and it is one of the most militarized borders in the world, rivaling the Line of Control that separates Indian and Pakistani forces near Kashmir. There have been hundreds of incidents along the border since the Korean War, with many observers blaming North Korea for sparking violent conflicts in the 1960s that killed hundreds of South Korean troops. It is believed that North Korea has dug several tunnels under the DMZ in anticipation of one day invading South Korea. South Korea has turned several of the discovered tunnels into tourist attractions.

Strategic Patience: The name given for President Barack Obama’s policy toward North Korea. It is based on the idea that North Korea could not immediately threaten the U.S. mainland so a concerted campaign of pressure would eventually lead to negotiations. Unfortunately, significant talks have not happened under the Obama administration’s presidency and critics say it has made the country less safe because of the North’s accelerated drive for long range missile technology.

The Byungjin Policy: Also referred to as the “parallel advance” policy, this is Kim Jong-un’s call for North Korea to enhance its nuclear deterrent so that the country can focus on economic reforms. The plan calls for the expansion of the nation’s nuclear warheads and runs counter to agreements that North Korea has signed with the international community in the past. It has been condemned as reckless by the United States and South Korea, but Mr. Kim recently called a party congress – the first since 1980 – to consolidate support for the plan. The policy is the clearest signal that North Korea could become a pressing problem for global anti-proliferation efforts in the decades ahead.

The Korean War: Conflict that occurred from 1950-1953 between North Korea, then backed by the Soviet Union and the People’s Republic of China, and South Korea, which was backed by Western capitalist powers. It was one of the early conflicts of the Cold War, with the United States believing that if South Korea fell to communism that much of Asia would follow suit. The war never reached a satisfactory conclusion, with a stalemate settling in after American-led forces (which carried UN Security Council approval) faced Chinese resistance in October 1950. An armistice ended active fighting on July 25, 1953, but a peace treaty was never agreed to, with neither side of the Koreas recognizing the legitimacy of the other. It was reported earlier this year that North Korea sought a peace treaty, but since it refused to discuss dismantling its nuclear program the United States was not interested in agreeing to terms.

Reasons That the World Has Struggled to Deal With the North Korean Threat

China Continues to Thwart Sanctions Against the North: Although the People’s Republic of China has consented in recent years to allowing some sanctions to be imposed on North Korea by the UN Security Council, it fears the collapse of the Kim regime more than the alternative of a rogue state along its borders. Chinese officials warn that if North Korea collapses that hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of North Koreans would descend upon it and create a humanitarian crisis that it could not handle. Since China is currently confronting a slowdown in economic growth, its social services could be strained by a refugee flood akin to what Europe is facing from Middle East and North African states at the moment. Also, Chinese officials worry that the collapse of North Korea could lead to a democratic, capitalist nation along its borders and enhance the strategic position of the United States in East Asia. As a result, China is loathe to back steps that would really weaken the Kim regime.

Historical Antagonisms Present Closer Cooperation Between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan: In an ideal world, the United States would find willing partners to isolate North Korea in the region. The U.S. does have close ties with South Korea and Japan, as both nations play host to U.S. military personnel in East Asia, but South Korea and Japan have a tenuous relationship. Japan annexed the Korean Peninsula in 1910 and historical antagonisms persist in that Japan kidnapped Korean women during the Second World War and used them as “comfort women” (a pseudonym for sex slavery). Japan has thus far refused to pay reparations for this treatment and its history texts often gloss over this part of its expansionist past. Visits by Japanese Prime Ministers Junichiro Koizumi and Shinzo Abe to Yasukuni Shrine, which enshrines some military officials convicted of war crimes during the Second World War, have also complicated relations. The inability of South Korea and Japan to present a closer front leaves a hole in America’s security nexus in Asia and makes much closer cooperation on North Korea difficult, especially because South Korea has some anxieties about a remilitarized Japan.

More Drastic Steps to Handle North Korea Could Kill Civilians: One of the arguments that North Korean dissidents put forth is that the international community should cease the delivery of food aid to the Kim regime. Since a famine in the 1990s killed an estimated five percent of the North Korea population, the UN World Food Program (WFP) and private groups have continued to channel aid to the country. Proponents say that it maintains a vital communications link between the world and North Korea, but critics say that it allows the Kim regime to stay alive and for popular antagonism to not take hold against the regime. Critics also note that monitoring where the aid is delivered in problematic and that the North Korean government has long refused to follow the conditions necessary to receive the aid. They allege that the military has benefitted the most from international generosity, producing a situation where the world is ironically making it possible for the North to be more aggressive and dangerous. However, if the international community were to completely cut off the North’s aid then the nation’s most vulnerable individuals would be affected, especially children and the elderly. There are signs that the international community is finding it less acceptable to give North Korea funds as collections for the WFP have nosedived in recent years, but such drastic action that could knowingly kill hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people, makes many policymakers uncomfortable.

The Danger Posed by North Korea

If the Korean War Resumed Tomorrow, American Military Forces Would be Temporarily Overwhelmed: Most expect that if the Koran War were to resume that it would take place at the behest of Mr. Kim, thereby making North Korea the aggressors. North Korea has the world’s fourth-largest military, with an estimated strength of nine and a half million men. The North also has the world’s largest number of special forces personnel. Extempers should note that numbers are not everything in combat and that training does play a significant role in the ability (or inability) of a nation to wage war. Nevertheless, most U.S. planners have assumed that a retreat of South Korea and American personnel from the DMZ would have to take place in the war’s early stages since the U.S. and South Korea would not have the personnel needed to fight off such a massive attack. U.S.-South Korean defense plans for such an invasion scenario are referred to as Operations Plan 5027 (OPLAN 5027) and have traditionally called for stabilizing a front twenty or thirty miles from the DMZ and then utilizing American technology and air power to beat back the North Koreans. The biggest danger of an attack, though, would be on the South Korean capital of Seoul, which houses nearly 40% of the nation’s population. Seoul is one of the Asia’s commercial hubs and an attack would cripple it and produce horrendous civilian casualties, especially if the North resulted to using biological, chemical, and/or nuclear weapons. This could have significant economic ramifications for the region. Anxieties about an attack from the North have affected South Korean politics, with some Seoul voters loathe to support an aggressive posture against the North for fear of retaliation. All of this is not to suggest, though, that North Korea could win a long-term war. Analysts project that the North could not win a sustained campaign and that China may not help it this time due to geopolitical factors such as damaging trade ties with Western powers.

North Korea Could One Day Acquire Long-Range Ballistic Missile Capability: Rocket launches by North Korea are interpreted by Western analysts as an attempt to one day acquire long-range ballistic missile capability, which would allow North Korea to hit targets well beyond South Korea and Japan. In February, the North successfully launched the Kwangmysongsong-4 satellite and it is looking into developing the proper engines for an intercontinental ballistic missile. Achieving this capability would strengthen North Korea’s hand when dealing with the United States, especially if it found a way to place a nuclear warhead on such a missile. Intelligence estimates suggest that North Korea could possess nearly one hundred nuclear warheads by 2020 and if the North could attack the West Coast of the United States that could lead to a greater militarization of the Korean peninsula and heighten the chances for confrontation. Such a move could also place the U.S. at risk for greater conflict with China, which continues to back the Kim regime.

North Korea Could Help Other “Rogue States” Acquire Nuclear Capabilities: North Korea is regarded as one of the world’s “rogue states” (the U.S. also affixes this title to Iran, Syria, and Sudan) due to its disrespect for human rights, sponsorship of terrorist activity, and pursuit of weapons of mass destruction. In 2002, President George W. Bush made international headlines when he declared in his State of the Union Address that there was an “Axis of Evil” that unified the interests of Iran, Iraq, and North Korea. The idea of a clear alliance between these states was far-fetched (after all, Iran and Iraq were mutual antagonists in the Middle East and fought a war against each other in the 1980s), but North Korea has shown a willingness to work with other nations in their pursuit of weapons technology. Due to the North’s economic woes it is one of its few chances to obtain foreign currency and in the early 2000s there is evidence that North Korean scientists and engineers worked with the Syrians to develop a nuclear facility (an Israeli air strike was carried out against this installation in 2007). The National Interest warns that North Korea could help Iran build a nuclear device behind closed doors, helping Iran circumvent the nuclear deal that it reached with Western powers last year. It points out that both sides have worked together on ballistic missile technology in the past and that some of its nuclear testing since 2013 may have been for the benefit of both countries. Clearly, a desperate Kim regime could make the task of controlling nuclear proliferation more difficult and could endanger many other regions aside from East Asia.

Sources

“Could North Korea Secretly Build an Iranian Bomb?” (The National Interest, May 10, 2016)

“How to Freeze North Korea’s Nuclear Program” (The Seattle Times, May 9, 2016)

“How to Put North Korea’s Nukes on Ice” (The Los Angeles Times, May 6, 2010)

“Kim Jong-un Announces a Five-Year-Plan for North Korea” (The Huffington Post, May 8, 2016)

“North Korea Claims Its Nuclear Arsenal is Just a ‘Deterrent’” (The New York Times, May 7, 2016)

“North Korea Hardens Nuclear Stance at Party Congress” (The Wall Street Journal, May 10, 2016)

“North Korea Might Respond Better to a Less Confrontational West” (The Guardian, May 9, 2016)

“North Korea’s Brazen Nuclear Moves” (The New York Times, May 2, 2016)

“North Korea’s Faster Pace of Missile and Nuclear Testing Fuels Growing Concern” (The Los Angeles Times via Alaska Dispatch News, May 10, 2016)

“North Korean Leader Plans to Step Up Nuclear Programme” (The Irish Times, May 9, 2016)

“The Western Press Revolts in North Korea” (The New Yorker, May 10, 2016)