Overview

Because the big news of the weekend was the elections in Zimbabwe, and the fact that they could bring an end to the twenty-eight-year-rule of Robert Mugabe, we thought it would be a good subject for a briefing.  However, April Fools on us, because the results haven’t come in yet, so we will give you a rundown of what has happened so far, and what victory means for either side.


Key Terms and Figures

Robert Mugabe – “President” of Zimbabwe since 1980 and head of ZANU-PF:  Was a prominent leader in the revolt that pushed the British out of Zimbabwe.  One of the Presidential candidates in 2008.  During his tenure he has repeatedly used his presidential prerogative to limit other branches of government and rig elections.  Has used national hatred of British rule as a defining message.  Often refers to the west as imperialist or “born again colonialist”.  Many argue that he has single handedly ruined Zimbabwe’s economy.

Zanu – PF – or Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front: Has ruled Zimbabwe since independence and has always been under t eh leadership of Robert Mugabe.  Tends  to be built around socialist ideology, and has held a majority in parliament since 1980.

MDC – or Movement for Democratic Change:  Founded in 1999 it is the largest Oppisition party in  Zimbabwe.  Its main branch has always been under the leadership of Morgan Tsvangirai.  In 2005 the party split when Tsvangirai said the MDC would boycott all elections until they were free  and fair.  This split has continued into 2008 with Arthur Mutambara – leader of the other  half of the MDC – supporting the presidential candidacy of Simba Makoni.  Has repeatedly been attacked, searched and harassed by ZANU-PF members.

Morgan Tsvangirai: Leader and founder of the MDC, and their 2008 presidential candidate.  Has been repeatedly been arrested under claims of disturbing the peace or inciting violence.  His arrests and mistreatment, as well as his vocal criticism of Zimbabwean democracy, has been one of the leading factors drawing attention to the 2008 elections.

Simba Makoni: Third of the three major Presidential Candidates.  Running as an independent. A former member of Mugabe’s cabinet.  However he was pushed out of office due to his criticism of many of Mugabe’s economic  reforms.  He wants to maintain much of the tradition of ZANU-PF, claiming that he would have run as the party’s nominee if they allowed anyone but Mugabe.  Not only has the support of Splinter MDC members, but many former members of Mugabe’s cabinet.

South Africa: Zimbabwe’s largest and most stable neighbor has been the primary oversight commission for the elections.  So far has deemed things to be fair.

The tally’s thus far:  Zimbabwe Election Support Network issued projections showing Tsvangirai with 49.4% of the presidential vote, Mugabe with 41.8% and independent Simba Makoni with 8.2%. An obscure fourth presidential candidate, Langton Towungana, had a 0.6% share. The announced parliament seats have been a near draw between MDC and ZANU-PF, with many claiming the delays are efforts to tamper with results to ensure a ZANU majority. MDC leaders claim that negotiations have begun to remove Mugabe from power – both the Zimbabwean and South African governments deny these claims.

Major Issues

Land reform: One of the major issues over the decade has been land reform.  Even after independence the majority of the arable land in Zimbabwe was held by a small group of white landowners.  However, in 2000 Mugabe allowed his supporters to seize this land without payment of any sort.  This redistribution has led to many farms being mismanaged and drastic food shortages throughout the nations.  This was exacerbated in 2005 with the military forcibly evacuated squatters throughout the nation, creating a large displaced class of individuals, and drastically lowering the agricultural output of the nation.  The starvation and economic devastation caused by these moves are a major motivating factor for the anti ZANU momentum in Zimbabwe.

Inflation:  Aside from starvation, the other major issue in Zimbabwe has been economic collapse, inflation has recently reach 100,000%.  Generally currency is worthless within a day or two of receiving it.  This inflation has destroyed local economies, and keeps all foreign investment out. This has been another major voting issue, as the command economics of ZANU-PF are largely blamed for this collapse.

Free and Fair: There have been plenty of allegations of vote  rigging, and considering the history of Zimbabwe’s elections this isn’t surprising.  Contrary to prior elections the vote itself was seen relatively free of problems, with little to no voter intimidation or relocations of polling centers.  However the counting process may be another matter, while unofficial observers have called the election for the MDC, there is little way to verify these tallies.  Yet with these claims, if Mugabe is declared the winner, there is likely to be upheaval and maybe violence – reminiscent of Kenya – as the vote will be seen as a fraud.  As such it can be argued that regardless of the true vote counts, the only road to stability in Zimbabwe is a MDC victory.

Press Freedom: Large portions of the results and the campaign have been obfuscated by the lack of clear press freedom in Zimbabwe.  Almost all of the domestic news is heavily controlled by the government, and international reporters have been banned from the country.  The lone exception to this – granted access to “prove” that elections were fair – is the state-owned South Africa Broadcasting Corporation.  Yet they are required to use only equipment provided by the government of Zimbabwe, including access to global satellite networks.  This lack of press freedom means that much of the chaos, political maneuvering, and results have been speculative.  Moreover, it means that regardless of the true result there is the potential that ZANU –PF may use their media control to either try to nullify the results, or insight violence against the MDC.

Real Democracy: Perhaps the greatest implication, however, is the potential for real democracy in Zimbabwe.  This may be the first time in twenty-eight years that a non-ZANU majority could be in parliament or the presidency.  If the MDC takes power, there could be large scale economic and human rights reform.  If these steps are undertaken the international community is likely to increase aid to the nation.  Yet, great political upheaval has the potential to destabilize nations, so things may not be as rosy as the MDC promises.  Not only could ZANU-PF members actively resist the government, but there is nothing to positively say that a MDC government will be any less corrupt.  Yet, the mere presence of multiple parties has the potential to check back corruption, and help bring a competition that will revitalize the nation.

Sample Questions

Will Mugabe peacefully step down?
Will the recent elections lead to greater press freedom in Zimbabwe?
What can the MDC do to rein in inflation in Zimbabwe?
How would Morgan Tsvangirai  be different that Robert Mugabe?
What can South Africa do to ensure a peaceful conclusion to Zimbabwean elections?