Overview
While it has long been famous for having two capital cites (La Paz and Sucre) or being partial home to Lake Titicaca – the highest navigable body of water in the world – Bolivia has recently decided that it needed to spice things up a bit. The country named after the leader of independence movements throughout Latin America elected a strong socialist leader – who is a long time advocate of the production of coca. However, it seems that Evo Morales’ pro-socialist and indigenous brand of politics has angered many of the wealthy elite. Four provinces – mostly populated by wealthy Bolivians of European descent – have planned votes to demand greater regional autonomy. When the first vote, in Santa Cruz, was a resounding victory for the pro-autonomy movement, Morales responded by pushing for a national recall vote of him and the governors of all nine provides (departments) to prove how beloved he is, and how much the average people love local government. Further complicating things is the fact that Morales is the number one disciple of Hugo Chavez, placing Bolivia in the middle of an international spat between the Latin left and the US. Since we have a series of elections that could rip a country apart, remove a democratically elected president, and alter the ideological balance of the western hemisphere, let’s take a look at Bolivia.
Key Terms and Figures
Evo Morales: Current President of Bolivia. He was elected in 2005, when the ruling MRN party had become vastly unpopular. He is most noted for his strong socialist policies and his support for indigenous Bolivians. Because of his socialist roots, he has re-nationalized the natural gas and oil resources of the country. He has also threatened to lessen the influence of Catholicism within the government, but the unpopularity of this move forced him to back down. However, Morales socialism has been most beneficial to the indigenous Bolivians. Since Morales himself is the first fully indigenous leader of Bolivia, he understands the difficulty these people have faced. As such, many of his economic reforms focus on moving wealth from Bolivians of European descent in the lowlands, to the indigenous poor in the mountains of the country.
Movement for Socialism (MAS): Current ruling party of Bolivia. The party is currently led by Evo Morales and holds majorities in both houses of Parliament. It made famous by exposing leftist views in disputes over water rights and the lack of wealth from natural gas flowing to native Bolivians.
Revolutionary Nationalist Movement: Former dominant party of Bolivian politics. While it had played a major role in Bolivia from the mid 1950’s to 2005, it lost much of its influence by shedding its left leaning policies for a more right-center neo-liberal platform.
Local Government:Bolivia is divided in nine departments: Chuquisaca, Cochabamba, Beni, La Paz, Oruro, Pando, Potosi, Santa Cruz, and Tarija. Santa Cruz has already held a referendum for autonomy, and Tarija, Beni and Pando will hold theirs in June. These four departments are wealthier and have a greater percentage of the population claiming European ancestry. The remainder of the provinces are mostly populated by indigenous Bolivians.
Major Issues
June Referendums: After the Santa Cruz referendum passed with an estimated “yes” vote of over 80%, the official tallies are missing because the high court ruled that the entire election was illegal. It is expected that the other three elections should pass by similarly large margins. While the vote had overwhelming support, it wasn’t without controversy. Many indigenous Bolivians rioted and tried to close down or destroy voting stations. When police arrived to at the protests, they tended to take little action, as they – much like the rioters – are devoted supports of President Evo Morales. Consequently, many analysts believe that the future elections will see a greater influx of pro-Morales supporters from the poorer parts of the country leading to greater violence from both sides. A conflict that would be bloody and divide the country at best, and at worst could be the beginnings of a civil war. While the latter result is unlikely, further violence would most certainly move calls for autonomy to calls for independence, a transition that would have little probability of occurring without some bloodshed.
Recall Vote: In an effort to placate the four angry provinces, the legislature passed and President Morales approved a measure to hold a recall vote for the president, vice president, and all regional governors. While this may allow many people throughout the country to voice their discontent, it is a move that is unlikely to hurt Morales. According to the Bolivian constitution, for any official to be removed in a recall they have to receive a sum total of votes for removal of a greater percentage then they were elected by. So, since Morales won with 53% of the vote, 53% of voters in Bolivia would have to vote AGAISNT him in the recall for him to lose office. However, since many of the governors won with pluralities in the 30-40% range, they have a greater chance of losing their seats. And since Morales gets to fill any vacancies – except his own – after the recall, he may be able to gain more control of local government that in the regions that are currently dissatisfied with him. However, if Morales loses, a new election will be held, and he cannot run because the Bolivian constitution prevents presidents from serving in consecutive terms. As such, the recall vote offers Morales a low-risk chance to allow voters to feel like the government is giving them a chance at change, but at the same time gives him the potential to gain a stronger hand in local government – basically a total win for Morales.
Venezuela and the Leftist Revolution: A major current underneath these politics is the ideological struggle that is moving throughout Latin America. Specifically, there has been a growing divide between leftists’ notations – including Ecuador, Bolivia, Paraguay, Argentina, and led by Venezuela – and the more moderate nations – including Columbia, Brazil and Chile – which enjoy broad European and American support. Because Morales has little chance to ever gain support from the US, his adamant support of coca grower’s rights – the primary ingredient in cocaine – would make the US wary of him even if he wasn’t a far left socialist. As such, Morales is forced to maintain the ‘Bolivarian revolution’ that Hugo Chavez is trying to lead throughout Latin America. This may force Bolivia further left then even Morales wishes to take it. Basically, because Bolivia now only has one set of potential allies, their current polices must be designed with those allies in mind, or else risk national isolation.
Sample Questions
How can Bolivia re-enter the US’s good graces?
Will the July referendums tear Bolivia apart?
Who will gain the most from the August referendum in Bolivia?
How can Santa Cruz convince the central government of the legality of its referendum?
How should the US respond to the growing any Morales sentiment within Bolivia?